Elegant Hotels Share Discussion Threads

[bikwik] 27/10/2016 00:57

I am really sorry for you that you have had to resort to such language and accusations. You are greatly mistaken in your view of me and have picked the wrong guy. I worked for a stockbroking firm in the mid 1980's and most of the fund managers were very old school and derided charts. I was a fundamental equity analyst at the time but began to get interested in charts. In 1988 I had noticed that the chart for UK interest rates then around 8% had begun to turn upwards and had broken a major downtrend.

At a company results meeting in 1988 I remember asking the finance Director of a major house builder about their land buying strategy. He said they were still happy to keep increasing the size of their land bank. I was very surprised by his answer, particularly given that as I said I had spotted a change in trend on the chart for UK interest rates. They doubled from 7.5% to 15% in the space of a year or so, which of course tipped the housing market into recession. Tony Pidgeley of Berkeley Group was the only one of the housebuilders to spot the change.

Every broking firm had a Datastream terminal. It produced charts of everything under the sun. Ours was tucked away in a corner of the office, but I soon spotted it and was on it quite a lot! One of the charts I ran off Datastream in 1988 was Amstrad relative to the cash rich GEC, run by Lord Weinstock. I had a hunch it might be interesting, and indeed it was. A head and shoulders reversal pattern was almost complete. Clearly, this was an opportunity not to be missed. The next day at the morning meeting I told everybody to get all of their clients out of Amstrad and put them into GEC as Interest rates look ready to rise sharply. GEC took off for 12 years, while Amstrad almost went bust. I had a soft spot for Arnold Weinstock and was deeply upset when the company he built up was eventually ruined at the end of the dot.com bubble by Lord Thompson and Mayo, a merchant banker, who took it into telecoms near the top of the market. His son Simon whom he wanted to take over from him died of cancer aged 46. Arnold Weinstock died an unhappy man. I will never forget him.

Ok i've said my bit and yes I have got very emotional. Hopefully you can see that I am genuine. You have greatly offended me and I apologise for all on this thread who just want to read about EHG. I will not post anymore on this thread.

[lbo] 26/10/2016 22:36

So you prefer to dismiss real hard facts as "doom and gloom" and you would rather we all believe your spin and ramping based on charts? Can we not have some realism on ADVFN? The real hard fact is whoever offloaded 10m shares could only do so at this valuation and not the IPO or supposed NAV valuation. We must question if Vision Capital with 23% of the shares are trying to exit and still have more to sell?

And we must question if your subjective view is tied into all this or the fact you have bought a few shares yourself and now desperately need to suck others in so you can sell out for a few pence profit? Why bother to even tell us? Why did you not keep quiet and just buy yourself? How altruistic of you to share this turning point in the chart with all on ADVFN and the many other BBs you have spammed all at the same time.

Please confirm you will be here for even just the medium term ie when the next profit warning comes? Or as we suspect you will tell us all after the fact that the charts told you to sell out and you will sail quietly off into the sunset with your few pence earned at others expense. Amazing how the chartists always have something to tell us in the absence of upcoming news or just after some real fundamental news.

Have you ever visited Barbados or any of the Hotels? Do you know anything about the high debt to GDP ratio of the country? Or about the possibility of it having to enter an IMF programme? Have you even spoken to anyone on the island who can tell you about the impact Zika is having on a certain demographic that usually stays in the Elegant Hotels? Your comparison to Ebola and West Africa shows how little you know about the small Bajan economy and how reliant it is on Tourism especially from the UK and a certain demographic of couples and family's who are of child bearing age. I agree Zika was having a smaller impact on the older demographic yet now many with an underlying Medical condition are being advised not to travel to Barbados with the newly discovered risks of Neurological disorders eg GBS and Zika. And yes Ebola was worse in terms of mortality rates but do you really think highly educated people would put themselves or more importantly their unborn children at risk for the sake of a Carribean holiday when so many other Zika free places in the world exist? So if you are not going to bother doing any real fundamental research and just rely on charts then at least read what the CDC,WHO and more importantly travel agents are saying about Zika to tourists.

Or even for that matter just look at what the company itself is saying about its bookings falling. And I note you have not once mentioned GBP/USD? Do you even know what the significance of that is on Barbados and Elegant Hotels? Amazing how your technical chart abilities can't call any reversal in something which would probably have a much greater and real long term impact on bookings then just you trying to profit at others expense from supposedly predicting a few pence of a dead cat bounce in the Elegant Hotels share price.

[bikwik] 26/10/2016 21:34

EHG is not the only stock to be rising. Investors are clearly buying others too. Does this mean that bad news generally, at least for small mkt cap stocks, AIM or otherwise, has been discounted. Probably. They are currently ignoring 'bad' news.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Just for fun (although interesting to see) I have put GMS, EHG and JPR on the same chart. Also I show relevant downtrends (most of the downtrends for GMS and JPR have been omitted - apart from the last bit- for clarity).

EHG is the only one to have broken above. The scale on the chart is for GMS only (as that is the main chart). Resistance for GMS comes in around 50p (also where the Sept/Aug range top resides). The other resistance line come in around 19p ish I think for JPR. EHG's resistance runs up to around 78p ish.

Arguably GMS has only been rising for 4 days while JPR has been advancing for 6 days and EHG 7 days. Maybe GMS has more up days to follow than the other two. Alternatively, EHG could be viewed as being stronger as it has broken the downtrend. Many ways to look at it!!Take your pick.

The MACD is nicely aligned for GMS, probably for the others too, i'll check.

[bikwik] 26/10/2016 20:46

Well LBO, I really can't understand you. If you hold shares in EHG then you are doing yourself no favours by spreading gloom and doom. Alternatively, if you don't hold any shares why spend time posting detrimental views, unless you are short of the stock.

Plus it seems that you really don't understand charts. Regardless of whether my chart and comments 'suck people in' as you say, the chart suggests to me that it is reasonable for it to rise towards 78p. Everyone is entitled to state their view. My experience in Analysis is mostly technical. Sure I look at the fundamentals. However, I don't go into them with a fine tooth comb. Occasionally I may do.

However, I have only reiterated the NAV based on the company's valuation. That I would have thought is the most accurate information. The alternative is for someone, you perhaps to fly out to Barbados and gather all the available information yourself, sit down and crunch numbers for hours and come up with a figure that may possibly be more accurate, though I doubt it.

As far as the Zika virus is concerned I merely stated a view. Zika was bandied around the media a few months ago because it coincided with the Olympics in Rio. Since then I havn't heard it mentioned hardly at all. That doesn't mean to say it is not still there. All I was inferring is that in the minds of most investors they have either forgotten it too (not your goodself of course) or have discounted its effects. A similar situation arose in West Africa not that long ago with Ebola which was Killing people. Now the panic over Ebola seems a distant memory. As I said before the stock market is a discounting mechanism. It discounts news bad or otherwise by the price falling. The chart says to me that worries over Zika, whether they can sustain the dividend, flat sales next year etc etc have been discounted. Therefore, the chart (the bullish candlestick last week and this weeks price action) so far suggests that investors, traders etc are willing to buy the stock.

I don't always get things right and am honest enough to admit that. I have no intention of misleading anyone. If I have then I apologise. Everyone who puts a toe into the stock market must be prepared for the fact that not everybodys views and goals are the same.

[che7win] 26/10/2016 16:00

Lear, The missing trades are LBOs, can see them on desktop view.A 10,000,000 trade showing!

[le4r] 26/10/2016 13:44

Guys, where do the missing posts go? Can't see 228 - the one that I think you're referring to, Bikwik. Or 231 for that matter.I also believe very undervalued but always interested to hear both side of the argument...Is it that the thread creator has put a global block on [phantom] poster??

[lbo] 26/10/2016 09:23

How can someone sound emotional when they are typing and posting? And if that is possible does that mean you sound very desperate in trying to suck people in to buy shares to attain a very short term target? I also note you still have not answered any of the questions on the long term fundamentals? We have all seen this before on ADVFN and AIM shares.

And your comments about Zika just confirm you have no clue what you are talking about "They did suffer some cancellations due to Zika virus worries, no cases at any of their hotels, and Zika is becoming a distant memory!"

Most cases of Zika are asymptomatic and are not being reported so it's no surprise there were no cases reported at any of their hotels but yet the number of cases of Zika related microcephaly are still rising in Barbados. So please don't mislead people just so you can make circa 10p per share. Would you advise your wife/daughter/sister to go if she was pregnant or could get get pregnant up to six months after travelling to Barbados? The CDC, Health Professionals and many others would not. And the CDC has updated Barbados and its status is Alert Level 2.







What is the current situation? (Updated October 17th)

Public health officials have reported that mosquitoes in Barbados are infected with Zika virus and are spreading it to people.

[che7win] 26/10/2016 09:15

Bikwik,
My view is the same. Very undervalued.

[bikwik] 26/10/2016 09:12

You sound very emotional from what you write. Its best to keep emotions out of the stock market. I analyse the charts as I see them and relate this to the fundamentals, which most people look at. I am just pointing out that there is scope for EHG to get back to around 78p, at least. What you choose to do with that information is up to you. I have no axe to grind. The stockmarket is a discounting mechanism. So, currently as I see it, based on the chart, whatever 'bad news' is perceived by the market for EHG is currently discounted and therefore its all in the price. And as I say it looks likely that 78p is attainable before not too long.

[lbo] 26/10/2016 08:42

Yes it may indeed have a short term bounce but what then? I suspect you and your bullishness will be long gone by the time of the next profit warning leaving those that do get sucked in to be left holding shares with a huge dividend cut and very few if any bidding for it. Just like the NAV you quote it's false and based on cashflows that are falling and will no longer sustainable. And Zika is far from a distant memory in why many young couples are not making Barbados bookings.

[bikwik] 25/10/2016 22:16

Obviously, some are sceptical and I can understand that, particularly with a yield of 10%. Whether they are right are wrong, we are not likely to know for some time - months probably - maybe the other side of Christmas, but I don't think that matters. The point is that the yield is 10% NOW and the NAV is approaching three times the mkt cap. They also look well run.

The chart, in my opinion, is saying this is a base area of some sort. Whether its a double bottom, triple bottom or something else I do not know, no one does. All I can say is that the August low held and a very nice bullish spinning top candlesick formed at this key level. Buyers are now returning and so far this week's candlestick (not yet finished of course - three more days to go) is looking good. A Friday close at or over 67p (mid) would confirm we are on our way to test the August highs. Even at 78p the yield is virtually 9%!, whether you believe it or not. If we get to that point, the majority will.

[bikwik] 25/10/2016 22:00

Posted over on my thread BIKWIK and Technical Analysis:

EHG is looking attractive again:

NAV (Hotels are freehold) was 161p as at 15 Apr 2015.
That was based on US/GBP 1.42, so now 187p based on current US/GBP 1.22.
This is getting on for three times!! the current 69p.

They now have 6 hotels and expanding. They did suffer some cancellations due to Zika virus worries, no cases at any of their hotels, and Zika is becoming a distant memory!

Even on a reduced EPS of 11.02p, the P/E is 6.1, but the kicker is the yield of just over 10%. They paid a 3.5p int div plus they intend to pay a 3.5p final. Also this looks safe for next year.

Plus on sharescope the Graham Ratio is below the magic 0.50 at 0.36, Altman ok at 1.99 and the Piotroski score a nice 8 (out of poss 9). Here is the chart:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[lbo] 25/10/2016 16:35

Won't be very soon with the falling revenues and profits and when you start including that they have to make a $3.8m debt repayment per annum from next year on.

[che7win] 25/10/2016 14:05

Yes, possibly, it's covered too.

Looks like the market wants to form the double bottom here.

[nw99] 25/10/2016 13:36

Going for the yield

[che7win] 25/10/2016 13:36

Strong buying again today.

[saucepan] 21/10/2016 12:50

Not saying I agree with their conclusions, but might negatively affect short term perceptions among its readership rather than encourage a new wave of buyers.

Myself, I am still on the sidelines for now as I think risk and reward are too finely balanced.

[che7win] 21/10/2016 12:37

Thanks Saucepan,
perfect sense, avoid because 10.5% dividend might be cut!

I mean, the current dividend is still covered on next years forecast, big deal if it's cut slightly!

[saucepan] 21/10/2016 11:10

FWIW: Shares covered this yesterday and concluded 'avoid' on the basis that the dividend will likely be cut.

[lbo] 21/10/2016 08:37

I find the comment the Chief executive officer of the Barbados Tourism Marketing Inc., William Griffith a bit odd! Are they coming to Barbados by boat? Or is he expecting a last minute rush on flight bookings?

[che7win] 19/10/2016 15:59

LBO,
Your obvious statement is wrong, I read that article on Sunil long before you ever posted it.

I welcome your posts because they check my viewpoint here, always good to see the negative points for which I acknowledge there are numerous here but I believe is reflected in the price. Not to say things can't get worse, but I like the risk/reward at these prices.

I had also read Paul Scotts daily email yesterday, I thought it entirely fair.

Some articles I read earlier today:

Chief executive officer of the Barbados Tourism Marketing Inc., William “Billy” Griffith...He said even though flights were not fully booked, hoteliers were anticipating a “really good November month in terms of arrivals”

[lbo] 19/10/2016 12:58

You obviously have not done any research. Read what was said in the interims ;

"However, while visitor numbers and airlift to the island have continued to increase, and there is good underlying growth in demand for Barbados, most of that growth has been in the villa rental segment and at the lower-cost end of the hotel market"

Read what Sunil Chattani was saying himself

[carcosa] 19/10/2016 12:35

Airbnb offer fantastic properties including housekeeper, chefs, cooks, infinity pools, multiple double bedrooms etc etc. Just search for the expensive Airbnb offerings...