Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[stupidboypike] 02/4/2015 08:42

I must admit I was a bit disappointed when I read the RNS. I've been watching these for a long time and finally bought some this week, encouraged by the Zwanziger purchases. I sold half first thing this morning, as I see it there are two possibilities for a strategic review, one good and one not good. Call me a cynic, but experience has taught me when you don't know the answer with a share, expect the worst!. Anyway hope I'm wrong and the other half of my holding comes good. Best regards SBP

[wan] 02/4/2015 08:16

Colonelgrim...That would imply PE are enquiring after something overvalued, or for that matter Ron Zwanziger thinks the same.......apparently not!

[colonelgrim] 02/4/2015 07:58

Not for the SP, this one is headed for 10 pence, post 882, you seem to have omitted the number one factor in all market activity...

"broker manipulation"

... I wouldn't touch this one with yours!

[adorling] 02/4/2015 07:50

Could be good news!

[wan] 02/4/2015 07:40

My guess would be that the private equity enquiries already reported have perhaps intensified, hence the need for a strategic review to justify whether EKF stays in its present form, is split off, or PE takes EKF out and realises the growth on offer. Clearly the management and Ron Zwanziger think there is growth and value on offer.

[pugugly] 31/3/2015 09:21

wan:_ Re House broker was going by latest print edition of Refs (obvioulsy not yet updated) I can understand new HB having a higher target - Possibly Cana sour grapes as a result of the change or a genuine belief in falling revenue - (Julie Simmonds is usually fairly accurate)

Re PIM - Agreed you were right - took a 24% profit when would now be over 250% (woe is me - but a pofit is a pofit !!)

Have you looked at EDEN in the plant protection area ? I have been trying to crunch the numbers and timeline but looks to me as though they may need more cash also, as yet, I have been unable to quantify the cost benefit equation for potential users.

[silverfern] 31/3/2015 08:09

WHo said no progress, but any company that prints shares to buy companies as they have done should be market leading not following. All these shares puff up the value of the company but don't deliver profits, so without the stock exchange this company would have folded as where else would they have got it in such a blithe way? That management have given themselves another year is just wonderful for management and very considerate of them to let you know.

[wan] 31/3/2015 07:38

Apologies Cisk, my mistake and now corrected. I started very early this morning!

[cisk] 31/3/2015 07:28

Morning Wan, think you're confusing my comments, never mentioned PIM and only mentioned house broker after relaying my comments from investor briefing a couple of weeks ago. Think you're referring to Pug maybe?

Nevertheless, in response to Silverfern, I agree with Wan in that the management here have been completely open and admitted the mistakes they've made, and it's true EKF is a different beast to that envisaged at the point of the Stanbio acquisition.

However to say that no progress has been made is a bit wide of the mark. They are one of the largest of the smaller medical diagnostic companies, have reduced the cost of production by setting up new facilities and have a healthy business selling consumables and processing test results.

[wan] 31/3/2015 06:35

Hello Pugugly/Silverfern

A quick response!

Pugugly...I recall you had some doubts about my rationale for investing in Plant Impact (PIM) too, but that's another (success) story!

To be fair, EKF's management got it wrong, which they clearly admit, but to suggest they have not made any progress is nonsense, EKF have become a diversified global medical diagnostic company.

The management have given themselves this year to prove that they can turn things around and restore investor confidence, so not necessarily the long haul you imply, if they succeed of course! If management deliver then there should also be good growth on offer beyond 2015. The risk is primarily one of execution, but they have laid out a clear set of goals in order to deliver above average growth.
​
So this is a turnaround story, primarily based on the new acquisitions (and the managements 'previous' track record). I agree that new diagnostic products and procedures take time to develop, but let's not overlook that there are also solid and growing revenue streams from established and new (CE marked/FDA 510k approved and CLIA waved) products, along with the imminent (developed) launch of a number of new products and not to mention the synergies and focus realised from the recently completed restructuring.

I understand your anger and frustration, but I was not invested during the period in question, and with a clear set of goals and a far more focused structure, I am prepared to give the management a second chance and invest accordingly.

BTW Pugugly, you are wrong about the the house broker, which actually changed in February to Panmure Gordon​ and who have a price target of 39p.

More from me later.

[silverfern] 30/3/2015 20:41

If ALere wanted this they would have bought, now the former CEO has bought a small amount everyone is excited. I'm not. This company has made a right mess of the initial business they bought and have bought and bought ever since to cover up. Evans had to admit of the recent volte face investment "this would have been in Point-of-Care, but given the plethora of technologies in development together with some launched products, not only would we have been playing catch-up with a me-too offering, but the scale of investment was not within our investment capacity." Catch-up is what your rivals are meant to be doing- you're the new company with money and apparent expertise! Then what they did buy all but had its business ended two months later. Absolutely farcical- so now they are an R&D company and as Pug says don't expect any return soon. Amazed I sold most when it peaked intraday for about five mins at 41p in December on some spurious RNS fluff

[pugugly] 30/3/2015 16:56

Wan & Cisk:- Good posts but very much one for the long haul - medical diagnostic products usually take much longer than expected to prove their effectiveness (if at all) and burn through much more cash than expected [Look at Angle - AGL - for example - a very well run company with a most interesting product but still some distance from commercialisation although very nice returns for those who bought back in Nov Dec 2008 and are still holding] But not so nice if you bought in 2005 or at float.

[Tried to insert chart but failed - !!]


Not helped by the fact that Cannacord have reduced their target price of 30p in their Angle collaboration note of January to 27p in their note last week citing signifcant reductions in revenue estimates for 2015 and 2016 and they are the House Brokers !! So probably need to discount significantly further (all imo etc)

I suspect this could well have futher to fall back unless early release of positive clinical data PLUS of course risk of competitive or superior technologies emerging.

[adorling] 30/3/2015 13:42

I have topped up ISA with 30,000 EKF at 20.8p and SIPP with 46,000 and expect to see us back at 25p in the next 4-6 weeks as strong trading range between 20p support and 25p resistance. 18p stop loss and will but more if we breakthrough 25p.

[adorling] 30/3/2015 13:41

I have topped up ISA with 30,000 EKF at 20.8p and SIPP with 46,000 and expect to see us back at 25p in the next 4-6 weeks as strong trading range between 20p support and 25p resistance. 18p stop loss and will buy more if we breakthrough 25p.

[andrewbaker] 24/3/2015 11:58

The Zwanziger Family 2012 Irrevocable Trust is doing good things for the SP, and Ron, the Zwanziger responsible, it seems, knows his onions ... and his diagnostics too. I'm long already, and may add if the current uptrend stays in place.

There seem to be a number of sellers today at the current price, but it's not bringing the price down, which must indicate something positive, IMHO.

[ssords] 21/3/2015 11:05

I am fairly heavy into Health investigative effort companies (BTG,EKL et al) so good to read these calmly intelligent driven comments rather than the wild comments that at one time(years ago now) splattered across BTG views..
Ssords

[wan] 21/3/2015 05:43

A few of us thought that Ron Zwanzigers current stake building was notable due to his deep industry knowledge. It was interesting then to receive an email saying much the same from EKF's PR Company Wallbrook. For those who might not have seen it -

Dear all,

I thought you might be interested in my comments below following the Holding(s) in Company announcements released over the last two days.

EKF Diagnostics (AIM: EKF) - US diagnostics guru sees value and is building up his stake

A few canny investors have spotted that Ron Zwanziger, the Founder and Ex-CEO of US diagnostics giant Alere Inc has increased his shareholding in AIM listed EKF Diagnostics Holdings plc to 5.45% and followed suit yesterday pushing the shares up 2p to 22p and up another 1p to 23p today. Ron had built up a declarable stake back in the Wales based point of care and molecular diagnostics back in November 2014 but increased this to 4.5% yesterday before going through the 5% barrier today. His personal stake, valued at the current price, is worth £5.45m.

Yesterday’s announcement is here:

Alere is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: ALR) and is valued at c. $4bn and in September 2014 Ron made an unsuccessful bid to take Alere private, a business he founded in 1981 and from which he resigned in July last year. Ron has bought the shares through his family investment vehicle Zwanziger Family Ventures. This is not the first time that Ron Zwanziger has backed Julian Baines and David Evans who head up EKF – in 2008 Alere (then called Inverness Medical Innovations) under Ron’s stewardship bought AIM listed healthcare business BBI Holdings plc for £83.7m – this time Ron is building his stake using his own cash. Alere is also a major US distributor of EKF’s haemoglobin testing product Hemo Control.

Thanks again to those that attended the EKF investor presentation at Rocket Bar this week. We have taken on board your feedback and interest in a presentation that provides a good teach-in on the three divisions, the strategy of the business and the key product lines. We look forward to arranging something in the near future.

Kind regards,

Paul

[totaleclipse] 19/3/2015 12:06

Zwanziger building a stake must be long term good news

[cisk] 19/3/2015 09:53

Zwanziger just upped his stake to 5.45% by buying another 4m shares.

[wan] 19/3/2015 09:51

It's very reassuring that again (as announced today) someone with such deep industry knowledge, such as the former Alere boss Ron Zwanziger (who's knowledge is arguably greater than most institutions), appears to have a lot of faith that the current share price is offering a decent opportunity.

[totaleclipse] 19/3/2015 09:48

Thanks Cisk

[wan] 19/3/2015 07:38

SelectScience Interview: The Future of Cancer Diagnostics: The Development of Liquid Biopsies

The CEO of EKF Molecular discusses the use of PointMan technology in recent clinical studies
11 Mar 2015

[rambutan2] 19/3/2015 01:08

For the record, Zwanziger bought the 4m (was a plain ordinary trade) at 21.613p. In Nov he paid 26-27p for the initial 15m.