EF Realisation Share Discussion Threads

[praipus] 02/1/2017 10:16

Happy New Year.

Belated noticed that Weiss Asset Management now hold 19.22%!


I'track Weiss (an active value investor and arbitrager) on the "Tracking the Arbitrageurs" BB.

[jimcar] 22/12/2016 22:44

In fairness the main holding is Lonestar and its price is calculated as a 5 day volume weighted average price, so they would probably have used a figure of about 6.5 against the 7.7 it is now,i.e. up 20% on about 2/3 of the holdings.e

[praipus] 22/12/2016 21:07

Me too but not in size. The good news is someone has taken all Artemis's stock!

Edit: Doh looks like a technical things it's still owned by Artemis just a "spin-off" business. They've got more faith than I gave them credit for....

[spectoacc] 22/12/2016 20:54

Can't blame them - NAV sinking, Lonestar kept alive but only with dilutory share issue.

I'm still in, & pretty big, but haven't added in a while.

[praipus] 22/12/2016 18:32

Artemis out....

[spectoacc] 21/12/2016 10:18

@flyfisher - they've always made a big deal about control, basically running Lonestar. Not sure where this leaves them - other than without control! Decidedly disappointing that whilst oil's dcb'd considerably, EFR's tanked.

I take your point about widening the s/holder base but it reminds me of when directors sell and the reason given is "to increase liquidity in the shares", lol. :)

[flyfisher] 21/12/2016 09:52

Yes, it will dilute EFR to about 20%. However it widens the shareholder base considerably, which in turn, should make it easier for EFR to ultimately place its holding and achieve an exit.

[spectoacc] 21/12/2016 09:48

All a bit depressing - the massive debt isn't really reduced much, and anyway, then intend to "re-draw" it to increase production over time. Would all look very different with $90/barrel oil but that's not where we're at.

Big increase in shares in issue, presumably heavily diluting EFR.

[hugepants] 18/12/2016 19:38

Lonestar trying to raise cash @ $5.75. Lonestar down from %10 to $6 so NAV is about 60p now. Still not sure about Lonestar, it looks awfully risky with the hedges expired.

Also worth a read:

18 Dec

[spectoacc] 21/11/2016 09:29

All about Lonestar, which is all about oil price. Curious convergence of -6.3% NAV, -6.3% share price, so can't complain there. Personally I think 2 years is something of a tight timescale to exit everything.

Noticed they mentioned Menhaden too, a chronically illiquid piece of cr*p.

Still - everything has a price.

[neilyb675] 18/11/2016 20:02

NAV @ 16/11/16 = 78.6p

[spectoacc] 14/11/2016 16:53

Ah OK, thought recent - all bets off post-Trump, oil's down $5+.

[jimcar] 14/11/2016 16:28

Yes I thought it a bit odd but its from Sept when the price was $13 (may have spiked up to $14 at some point) so, in fact, it was a good call from old Zack

[spectoacc] 14/11/2016 15:57

"Zacks Investment Research cut shares of Lonestar Resources US from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating and set a $14.00 price objective for the company".

Seriously? It's about $9, how can $14 target be a sell?

But fair point that it's all about Lonestar - unfortunately the oil price has been sinking since Trump elected.

[jimcar] 14/11/2016 15:24

Largely a play on Lonestar. I would have thought Trumps's election would have given it a boost.

Here are some views on LONE

"Lonestar Resources US Inc. (NASDAQ:LONE)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by equities research analysts at Canaccord Genuity in a report released on Sunday. They currently have a $13.00 target price on the stock. Canaccord Genuity’s price target would suggest a potential upside of 35.40% from the stock’s current price.

LONE has been the subject of several other research reports. Zacks Investment Research cut shares of Lonestar Resources US from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating and set a $14.00 price objective for the company. in a research note on Tuesday, September 13th. Cowen and Company started coverage on shares of Lonestar Resources US in a research note on Wednesday, August 10th. They set an “outperform221; rating and a $12.00 price objective for the company. Finally, Seaport Global Securities reissued a “buy” rating on shares of Lonestar Resources US in a research note on Tuesday, July 26th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating and four have given a buy rating to the stock. Lonestar Resources US presently has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $11.25."

[spectoacc] 14/11/2016 13:38

Small sells continuing; NAV tanked from over 89p to barely 70p but still at least notionally "cheap" - depending on where that NAV ends up!

[asmodeus] 02/11/2016 15:16

Has anyone been able to work out, or been given the "factor", or percentage figures to calculate their effective cost price of EGL and EFR, based on what they paid for ECWO - especially if they took part cash? My own Broker says 91.87% for EGL and (hence) 8.13% for EFR, but I did not take any cash. Thanks.

[spectoacc] 25/10/2016 13:26

Not reading much into today's WINS move 2p higher on offer - the generous 39p to sell from the other day has gone (back to 37.16p), with the usual daily stream of small sells. 43.5p to buy, so the comedy 8p spread is still a comedy 6p spread online. In absence of news/progress/Lonestar doing something, it's money for nothing for the MMs here.

[spectoacc] 20/10/2016 16:31

NAV down again btw, now 81p so fallen 10% in 3wks of listing. Very Lonestar-dependent but without the weak £, would prob be another 10% lower. Can work both ways of course.

[spectoacc] 20/10/2016 16:23

40p were sells, 41p was a buy, IMO.

@Gbill11 - thanks, interesting article re Lonestar. You're right - 3/4rs of EFR and pretty risky with the level of debt & hedges running out. Is a risk I'm taking on, but outcome far from assured.

[neilyb675] 20/10/2016 15:25

chunky buys I noticed here

[gbill11] 20/10/2016 14:59

Lonestar is out 75% of this trust I believe. Am I the only one who thinks Lonestar looks terribly risky. It has massive debt and its oil price hedges in the $70s have either run out or will run out in the next couple of months. Either the oil price rises or Lonestar have to sell assets and if neither happens then is it worth anything at all?

[spectoacc] 14/10/2016 09:13

Finally got them tradeable in Selftrade, took another phonecall. Bought yet more this morning (& didn't pay 43p).

[spectoacc] 12/10/2016 13:59

Not sure what to make of those multiple 55ks. If they're buys then they've paid less than me. Still a stream of small sellers at near the bid, had no idea ECWO had so many small shareholders.