Eco City Share Discussion Threads

[daz] 08/1/2013 08:12

Got it - thanks.

[strollingmolby] 07/1/2013 22:30

Daz,

Click the link at the bottom of the page under the video, then click 'I agree', then you'll see a zip file with a Word doc of the press release, and an XLS with the data - Taxis are under the Vans and Trucks.

I've got the data back about 4 years or so - I'll see if I can post it up somewhere.

[daz] 07/1/2013 22:01

SM,

Excuse my ignorance but where did you get the information on cab sales? The link in post 101 just seems to refer to van and truck sales, unless I'm missing something.

[opaldouglas] 07/1/2013 20:37

website has been updated a wee bit.

www.kpmuktaxis.com

[opaldouglas] 07/1/2013 20:26

Does anyone know when black cabs were usually registered (15 years old cabs) and subsequently hit there 15 year limit? ECV have stated that the last qtr of 2012 was expected to benefit from new regulations.

boonkoh - was it definitely Jan the 1st?

StrollingMolby, thanks for the link. We already know this year will be a record breaker for ECV, its really a case of by how much.

[boonkoh] 07/1/2013 16:08

I thought existing on the road Tx4s were fixed in December as a priority, and that the new unsold TX4s were waiting to be fixed (as there's no money yet without a buyer, whereas recall fixes would have been paid for first in front of any other creditors I suspect)

[strollingmolby] 07/1/2013 13:37

Don't forget LTI was said to have fixed the TX4 steering fault in November - so why didn't they sell any in December?

December was a shorter month for most firms too - did ECV shut down for any of the Xmas period?

[boonkoh] 07/1/2013 12:56

StrollingMolby: seems slightly disappointing in terms of total units for December. Didn't alot of old cabs need to be taken off the road as of Jan 1st?

[strollingmolby] 07/1/2013 12:40

Another dominant month for ECV in December, outselling LTI by 42 mercs to nil. (Nov was 55:9 in ECV's favour).

[opaldouglas] 03/1/2013 11:21

Boonkoh, It's a valid point. I believe Nissan will certainly provide competition with the Vito but its not something ECV are unaware of. I do question there 1.5L engine as this seems somewhat lightweight given a full taxi and suitcases to boot... the Vito does have an additional seat which is handy and the Merc has the "name" factor.

What's most important is the clear first mover advantage the Vito has had, which is why they have been able to grow sales over 3 years plus whilst the Nissan will be starting from scratch. Also, the more Vitos that hit the road year on year, the more revenues ECV will realise through maintenance and servicing etc.

As for the volumes my only explanation is CR's & SM tips! Unless news has leaked regarding trading update due end of Jan?

OD

[boonkoh] 03/1/2013 10:54

I wonder where the volume yesterday and today is coming from.

Nissan in London is a slightly terrifying prospect. Anyone hazard a guess in Nissan vs Merc in terms of specs and pricing?

[strollingmolby] 03/1/2013 09:57

Nissan has developed its own front wheel split driveshaft (?) I remember reading so has no need for one80's tech.

[boonkoh] 02/1/2013 20:28

Guru: all those 400 defective tx4s recalled has been fixed i think before Christmas and now back on the road.Only q is when the unsold tx4s will be fixed by and released to the market, even with manganese in administration.Good to see strong volume today. My fantasy is that Nissan will partner with Eco City to use the One80 technology to make their taxis Up to the London standard. Would mean a 100% market share :)

[opaldouglas] 02/1/2013 20:27

guru, v true. I got the impression Manganese haven't offered any refunds and apparently were happy to sell new black cabs when in full knowledge of the steering fault. I expect they will have a number of cases brought against them for loss of earnings etc, although given the company is in administration and a buyer hasn't been found to date I'm unsure if any cases will proceed.

[guru] 02/1/2013 20:14

Hi OpalDouglas, in addition, 400 black cabs were taken off the road as part of the recall by Manganese. I would have thought these 400 black cab owners would have asked for a replacement and/or asked for some kind of a refund or be under pressure to get hold of a replacement vehicle i.e. a new Vito prior to christmas so they can earn a living. This must have a positive impact on the sales for the 2nd half.

[opaldouglas] 02/1/2013 19:50

Hi Boonkoh, Molby beat me to it. You're correct - 36% is the percent of new cab sales but that only equates to circa 1,750 cabs on the road in total which certainly aren't all in London.

What will be really interesting is growth in London since Manganese suspended sales and went into administration. By my calcs the 36% figure quoted represents approximately 354 Vitos for the first 7 months of the year, on this basis if sales had remained consistent 612 Vitos would have been sold full year 2012. This would bring in revs circa £21.5M (612 x £35,000) £7M more than 2011.

Now factor in higher sales due in the 2nd half of the year as cabs hit there 15 year limit and no actual competition since October and things get very interesting. I estimate that since Manganese suspended sales 669 cabs were due to be replaced. So by my calcs 354 Vitos (already sold) + 669 cabs would produce revs of £35,805,000 for new sales alone and this doesn't include sales outside of London, parts division, after sales or one80.

All revs may not be realised during this financial year if bought on credit and my average Vito cost of 35k can be above 40k if extras are included so interesting times ahead.

[strollingmolby] 02/1/2013 17:55

boonkoh - OD is right, ECV has been selling the Vito over the last 7-odd months and has gained 36% market share over that time.

Over the total of 25k licenced black cabs however, ECV has only 7% market share i.e. 1,750 cabs - which means there is plenty more market share growth to shoot for, and which will be accelerated as old FX4 Fairways that reach 15 years age will not be re-licenced and must be taken out of the Lonon licenced trade.

[boonkoh] 02/1/2013 17:50

Opaldouglas - are you interpreting those numbers right? Thought the 36% was the share of new cabs sold for London. Obviously cabs don't have to be replaced every year, so share of the total London taxi fleet will be lower. But the key number is the share of new cabs sold as that is related to current revenue.

[opaldouglas] 02/1/2013 17:29

For any investors who are giving ECV the once over its worth mentioning that ECV's current percent of the London market is 7% of circa 25,000 cabs. Not to be confused with the 36% figure ECV captured last year vs the traditional black cab.

OD

[opaldouglas] 02/1/2013 17:21

CR & Molby, if the key to identifying stocks that are due to rise is nominating them within stock challenges can we not create a weekly stock challenge? ;)

Back to business, today's breakout is very positive as ECV struggled to surpass 2.20 in Q3 2012, volume was equally impressive.

[cornishman33] 02/1/2013 16:59

Thanks CR.I had been watching these for a while after their main (only) competitor went belly up last month. When I spotted that you had put them in your stock challenge that clinched it for me. I bought some this morning and watched them rise this afternoon.

[cockneyrebel] 02/1/2013 16:48

That rally and breakout will bo my stockchallenge a favour, and the portfolio :-)

CR

[strollingmolby] 02/1/2013 14:47

OD - been following them for years on and off, as I had a long-term short on Manganese Bronze!

ECV's growth of market share is stunning and I hope it continues on its merry way upwards...

(PS especially as I have now bought a few)

[cockneyrebel] 02/1/2013 14:45

Bowl back up to 7.5p?



CR