Eco Animal Health Share Discussion Threads

[aimingupward2] 19/5/2016 13:06

Yes, and virtually all at mid market price, so goodness knows what's going on.

[smelleroo] 19/5/2016 12:37

large volume today

[smelleroo] 18/5/2016 11:51

old mutual buying more eco at the moment, think they are quite a good investor so encouraging!

[smelleroo] 06/5/2016 12:57

think we all know that this business is in great shape....

madness to be selling shares now, you run your winners!

[audigger] 06/5/2016 12:27

Well another 6p today so we could soon reach 400. Interesting point regarding the historical share price Eco has quite a diverse history so it's possible the previous high was before they divested some of their businesses; I'd have to check the dates which I ain't got time to do right now, day job calls.

[aimingupward2] 06/5/2016 11:39

Indeed we would, though I must say I find this sort of spurious accuracy rather silly. Why not say "around £9". Actually, the share price is vey near to topping it's all time high, (never mind a 52 week high), reached as long ago as 2002. There was clearly a high level of premature optimism then, but now, 14years later, it is much more justified.

If I were Peter Lawrence, I think I would be saying to myself that when I do retire and sell some,or all, of my shares I will want to get very much more for them than I could probably have got 14 years ago. So, realising this, I now think that £5 is too modest a target and that £6, 7, or even 8+ is within the realms of possibility, despite the very high p.e implied.

[audigger] 04/5/2016 11:31

Article below is at this link: hxxp://www.bodyconfidential.com/stocks/time-to-reconsider-eco-animal-health-group-plc-after-reaching-52-week-high/72368/

The stock of Eco Animal Health Group Plc (LON:EAH) hit a new 52-week high and has GBX 897.35 target or 133.00% above today’s GBX 385.13 share price. The 6 months bullish chart indicates low risk for the GBX 245.39 million company. The 1-year high was reported on May, 3 by Barchart.com. If the GBX 897.35 price target is reached, the company will be worth GBX 326.37 million more. The 52-week high event is an important milestone for every stock because it shows very positive momentum and is time when buyers come in. During such notable technical setup, fundamental investors usually stay away and are careful shorting or selling the stock. The stock increased 1.75% or GBX 6.63 on May 3, hitting GBX 385.13. About 80,400 shares traded hands. Eco Animal Health Group Plc (LON:EAH) has risen 25.12% since October 1, 2015 and is uptrending. It has outperformed by 17.35% the S&P500.

ECO Animal Health Group plc is engaged in the development, registration and marketing of pharmaceutical products for global animal health markets. The company has a market cap of 245.39 million GBP. The principal activity of the Company is the manufacture and supply of animal health products, which is conducted on global scale through a network, including both regional offices and overseas subsidiaries. It has a 50.65 P/E ratio. The Firm has investments in the intellectual property of Aivlosin, which its patented molecule.

I think we'd be happy with 897!

[aimingupward2] 01/5/2016 21:35

Well, yes, good points, Au. The product profile is certainly very encouraging for aivlosin and, as you say, there is perhaps the possibility of regulators requiring this, or something similar, as standard at some time in the future. Tantalising prospect. I hadn't thought of that before. The other products, though, are definitely secondary, not having similar attractions, it seems.

So perhaps around £5 is possible for a buyer with patience and a longish term outlook. The barriers to entry for any competitive product to be developed, registered and approved are huge.

[audigger] 01/5/2016 20:21

£5 was a figure banded about a few years ago. I guess a key question is how to value this kind of business model in terms of the earnings potential arising from registrations gained (and paid for) but for which sales have yet to be realised. Is the PE ratio a suitable basis for valuation? Another Point to consider is that if Aivlosin does represent a step change in product profile for an antibiotic given to farm animals with its low residue profile, short half-life and clinically effective at low doses such that regulators stipulate future products have to be this way, then there's further significant upside.

[aimingupward2] 01/5/2016 19:33

So, without getting too carried away, what do you reckon is a realistic sell out price, folks? It's already on a pretty high p.e. remember - probably around 30 for the year just started, so even if you allow for a halving of that by a buyer with it's own sales force(s) making appreciably higher margins, there's not a lot of headroom - is there? Does anyone know if Peel Hunt have had a shot at a figure?

[smelleroo] 01/5/2016 19:21

Yes audigger, so Peter Lawrence is not going to give this business away! Exciting times, hopefully

[audigger] 01/5/2016 17:07

Approaching 70 after many years building a profitable company and with his family financially secure, now must be the time to be selling out or planning his succession. Added to this, Eco has now secured registrations in its key target markets and is primed for years of sustained growth. An ideal time to sell the business!

[aimingupward2] 01/5/2016 12:22

You're welcome.

Perhaps it won't be a matter of age, but one of when the company's on-going prospects look brightest.

[smelleroo] 01/5/2016 10:50

Thanks! Didn't realise he was that age......that's even more interesting

[aimingupward2] 01/5/2016 09:21

Peter Lawrence was born in 1948, so is 68. Perhaps he'll sell out out and retire at 70, who knows.

[smelleroo] 01/5/2016 09:10

Nice move late on Friday! Share price suggests that things are going well for Eco however cannot help feel that developments in North America both achieved by the company but also the change in use of antibiotics is attracting interest! Obv there has been no formal approach otherwise we would know. I am expecting the results to be decent albeit a wee while to go for those. There does seem to be a seller but seller seems to be a provider of liquidity rather than an overhang. Tbh,there are some large, long standing shareholders here So the odd 250k isn't much for them I guess. I was trying to see how old or young Peter Lawrence is. I think he is only around 50 so maybe a it early to it his feet up but you never know! My few shares here won't afford me the same luxury :(

[topvest] 29/4/2016 18:28

Always tempting to sell. I'm going to hold on a bit. If I had more invested I would have top sliced though.

[audigger] 29/4/2016 17:12

Well last night I decided that today I would sell half my holding which would have returned my original investment leaving the rest as profit. However, I changed my mind at the last minute as I can't help thinking there is an offer coming. Pleased I did given another 5p was added and some late buys declared. Perhaps. May get an RNS next week.....and another 20p rise!

[aimingupward2] 29/4/2016 16:37

Suddenly, half a million shares bought in the closing minutes - an exact repeat of the other day with 250K followed rapidly by three lots of 83.5K. What's going on I wonder?

[audigger] 28/4/2016 17:36

Another day, another penny rise. Unfortunately I bought most of my EAH shares prior to being allowed to have AIM shares in an ISA so I need to do some CGT planning. May have to give some shares to the Mrs. Nice problem to have though....

[audigger] 28/4/2016 11:09

Usually late July or early August. Post Brexit! Sorry shouldn't mention politics!

[smelleroo] 28/4/2016 10:36

Guess there is a seller however I am encouraged that the price is moving UP and not DOWN ! When are results from Eco, anyone know?

[aimingupward2] 28/4/2016 10:10

Well, just maybe. But these shares are tightly held and it doesn't take much buying to push the price up. On the other hand somebody acquired 250,000 recently without moving the price. How did they do that?

[smelleroo] 27/4/2016 15:44

I think that any acquirer will be starting to make noises to be ahead of the pack! They will defo want aivlosin and be able to take out the central costs as well as having its own distribution. But agree something is likely to be up, just like the share price

[audigger] 27/4/2016 15:10

I'm beginning to wonder if they are in discussions about selling the company as the share price just keeps heading north. Either that or someone is in the know about revenues markedly exceeding expectations. The mysterious peel hunt note may enlighten us. Whatever the driver, long may it continue!