Easyjet Share Discussion Threads

[lucas5950] 29/11/2016 19:07

Oil is on the decline and the pound is starting to gain some ground again. All positives for EZJ!

[puzzler2] 26/11/2016 16:13

...but capacity has also increased significantly this last year. I've just booked two trips for 2017 and am surprised at how low the fares are (one of those is Easyjet, the other is Monarch). Also, I fly regularly to and from Frankfurt and am now starting to see aircraft that aren't full, which wouldn't have been the case six months ago. I'm neither holding, nor shorting, EZJ, so have no bias.

[mastey] 26/11/2016 11:23

QP

Thanks so much for pointing to the ONS information. Let's look at the whole picture

Visits to the UK on a 12 month basis up 4%

12 month rolling travel to Europe from UK up 9%

3 month rolling UK Outward travel up 7%

Not quite the picture you paint QP

[quepassa] 25/11/2016 20:18

Quite wrong, there .

You will undoubtedly have seen in today's FT that the ONS reported that tourist visits to the UK since the Brexit referendum and the pound's plunge was a tiny 2% higher over 3 months to September compared to 2015.

The month of September recorded a puny 1% increase y-o-y.

This has confounded pundits who forecast a great increase in tourist visits to the UK.

No doubt these figures from the Office of National Statistics will undermine any misplaced confidence about heavy additional inflows to the UK of air-passengers.

It is just getting worse and worse for the airlines. The only way to mop up all the additional seat capacity will be through lower and lower seat prices which will hit profitability hard. This will most likely impact on dividends paid to shareholders in the short-haul sector.

Herewith link to the ONS:-



A very bad couple of weeks for the EZJ share price. Has slumped from 1100 to 1020p in very short order and in my opinion looks like it will fall significantly further.

The ONS statistics do not add any comfort whatsoever in an already bleak, unrelenting , unforgiving and highly negative operating environment for the sector.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[petercrosby] 25/11/2016 20:05

UK will be a holiday destination for the rest of Europe the way the £ is going...

[pulsey] 25/11/2016 14:59

suffersnofools25 Nov '16 - 11:06 - 4709 of 4713
mbmiah - TalkTalk - now there's a dog!

Share price looks like one of those ski slopes that the EZJ customers will be jetting off to this winter. Three years of retained losses - ouch. Hope no-one here is long TALK and short EZJ. That would be terrible.

Even if we all do have to tighten finances next year, people still find time for a holiday. Perhaps UK instead of Europe and Europe instead of long haul, so what EZJ loses with one hand it will gain with the other. We're still in Europe for the next two years, business staff will still be travelling. Commercial relationships are not going to suddenly stop because we are not in Europe.

[mastey] 25/11/2016 12:26

Interesting re seat pricing. I have just spent an hour or so looking to book trips to Portugal next summer ( health permitting) usually visit four or five times a year. Current listed prices higher than last year !! Appreciate that it's a destination that is considered very safe. Therefore it's clear there are large pockets of sizeable seat price strength. Easy expanding further into Jersey due to sterling area , safe etc. QP getting a bit bored of Lufthansa comments. Totally irrelevant . Easy adding capacity where it's required . The next forward guidance in my opinion is going to catch so many out and will be very expensive to shorters.

[quepassa] 25/11/2016 12:13

Our Resident Fool just doesn't get the point about keeping his gob shut and stopping the unprovoked attacks. He knows that I have posted about TalkTalk in the past and wants to bring a further fight about that to here. If he wants to engage about Talktalk, he may wish to do so on the TalkTalk threads.

Once a fool, always a fool.



So, here we go again.



It seems that the market is weighing heavily again today.

Bad news emanating recently from the Sinai Peninsula compounded by suspect major fires in Haifa do not add comfort to an already embattled short-haul sector and may likely further dent confidence again in Egypt and Middle East/Maghgreb as tourist destinations.

The terrible ongoing pilot strike at Lufthansa is yet another sign of a generally unhappy sector.

This is on top of the massive discounting of seat prices and the insane amount of extra capacity which is flooding the short-haul sector.

Not a happy place to be in my opinion.

The weak and febrile second Bounce now sees our Dead Cat rapidly succumbing quickly and inescapably to the force of gravity which will exert ongoing downward pressure.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[andy pipkin] 25/11/2016 11:08

Oh dear. The feline seems to have lost its bounceability.

[suffersnofools] 25/11/2016 11:06

mbmiah - TalkTalk - now there's a dog!

Given the fact that Easyjet will benefit from cost saving from it's cheaper hedged fuel position through 2017, pound strength and the ever increasing demand for short haul flights on both existing and newly opened routes, as HSBC points out in it's most recent note, we should see a small increase in EBITDA compared to FY 2016. Even with a very low PE sub 10 and retained dividend level, very hard to see this being below 1500p next year.

[csmwssk12hu] 25/11/2016 09:31

Reached the floor of the trading level at 1020, from here the bounce is back to 1116 imho dyor

[mbmiah] 24/11/2016 22:07

Talk talk shares aren't going too well - not even a dcb on that one

[andy pipkin] 24/11/2016 17:56

did someone mention precipitous?

[mastey] 24/11/2016 17:38

The short term headwinds at the start of the financial year will have an effect there is no doubt but it will be all about forward quidance and that will be far more favorable than all expect . 2017 summer is looking extremely good

[quepassa] 24/11/2016 17:00

Remember. The dividend is a RATIO nowadays. It's not that they want/need to beat last year's dividend. It's linked to profitability - and that is what is under threat.

Profitability just fell by £190million. Who is to say that profitability can't be further hit in this year in the current damaging operating environment?

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[pdriccio] 24/11/2016 16:36

Of course that is a possibility qp.
It's still in a downward trend.

IMO clarity on the dividend will not allow that to happen though.

[mastey] 24/11/2016 16:36

The early summer bookings and noise around this look extremely promising . French ATC action like seem last year will not happen, French elections and all that. This cost to Easy was huge last year . Air traffic numbers sent to continue rising at a fast pace. With do many advance bookings in place permits much higher price late seat bookings. Without the ATC traffic cancellations like last year these seats won't be taken up by transfer passengers from cancelled flights. Look forward and it looks much better indeed.

[lucas5950] 24/11/2016 16:27

I can't see facts to support that - EZJ has had a very tough year and still turned over half a BILLION in profit. share price has dropped massively, £19.50 to £8.50 wasn't justified, hence the climb back. Now along with the 50% of profits towards dividend, it makes it a highly attractive investment. EZJ has always fallen and recovered, it's just too big and strong to be valued at these levels.

I'm long term, so i don't mind it dropping to £8, i'm satisfied with the 5% dividend, £8 is just another great opportunity.

If it gets there Lol!

IMO

[quepassa] 24/11/2016 16:22

But it could equally fall a lot further given the very negative sector sentiment which is rearing its ugly head again.

My guess is nearer £8 by year end.

The Price War will severely and increasingly damage sector profitability across the board - as have already witnessed.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[lucas5950] 24/11/2016 16:17

Oh nice one PD, i hadn't noticed that. IAG has followed the exact same pattern as EZJ today. Thanks for that.

[lucas5950] 24/11/2016 16:12

HSBC has been very accurate recently. When we dropped, they called it very well. Now they have 1300p. If we can get £12.50+ by end of year i'll be very happy. :)