Earthport Share Discussion Threads

[madmonkflin] 15/2/2017 11:24

Time for some news? - been a while since new contract win.

[chadders] 13/2/2017 13:52

Isa, revenue per transaction will fall as the volume of transactions increases (info is in the presentation to investors) . It's a volume business so no surprises there. Margins are 70% which is not wafer thin. Once expenses are in line with the rest of the business it will be very profitable. At the moment a sizeable part of expenses are discretionary due to the growth strategy

Re the beer, maybe the next AGM would be a good time.

[isaready] 10/2/2017 12:21

I agree Arf, hence why, recently said, they are the backbone, the pipe of flowing money. If they can secure the broadband type service for money transfers, the volume will increase x1000.

Money flows as we speak for everything. If they can become the lowest common denominator, they'll get it all in their pipe no matter what its for, investments, sales, hedging, gaming etc.

One point, the risk was theirs when they did the FX, clearly.

Time will tell.

[arf dysg] 10/2/2017 12:04

isaready (12685): "if they've processed 7.8 billion dollars and they're making 22 million, this means the margins are wafer thin"



The phrase "wafer thin" would apply if they had PAID 7.800 billion for raw materials, and SOLD the product for 7.822 billion, thereby risking 7.8 billion to make a profit of 22 million.

In fact that's the wrong way to look at it. They're facilitating the transfer of money, but they never see that money or have to risk it. It's like someone who builds an oil pipeline: they make money in the building and maintenance of the pipeline, but they never have to risk the value of the oil flowing through the pipe. Their risk is the (much smaller) materials and labour involved in the pipe.

Ergo, Earthport's risk is in paying for the software development and various international financial licences and regulatory hurdles. Their risk is not connected with the amount of money (7.8 billion) transferred by customers.

[isaready] 09/2/2017 22:50

The only other point is, if they've processed 7.8 billion dollars and they're making 22 million, this means the margins are wafer thin. They need volume, huge volume but also liquidity as the volume comes from the clients themselves, if they are only ever using the offset model. Interesting.

[isaready] 08/2/2017 22:26

Cheers Chads, maybe when the tap is shown to be open, we can open the tap to a few drinks together.

[chadders] 08/2/2017 20:01

isa, Last year was 21st March. The trading update answers your other queries, the tap has been turned on with record numbers in December.

[isaready] 08/2/2017 14:28

When do we expect these numbers to be out, interims I assume, around March? Even then though, they may not fully reflect any additional revenue fully, unless the tap was turned on asap and the deal when announced, was announced when it was delivered internally. If this the case, it's much better, otherwise you're always waiting for the outcome, like a credit card, buy today, pay later, if you can. This is more of a paid now, start now, subject to them doing the work months before.

[chadders] 08/2/2017 13:57

Isa, when the H1,17 numbers are published peeps will be able to crunch the numbers to get a real picture of what's happened between Q1,2017 and Q2,2017 which should nail on the minimum number for year end and the likely FY number.

The outlook statement, if positive, will be the next driver upwards for the share price.

[isaready] 08/2/2017 13:18

Chads,


It refuses to recognise the growth from £2 million to forecast FY17 of £29 to £31 million although I reckon it could be as high as £33 million. EPO has clearly stated it embarked on a strategy of creating a global footprint and investing the necessary capital to achieve that goal, at the expense of short term profit, and it is now beginning to reap the rewards.


You are right on this, they are heading that way and giving it a good go. There is no more change in strategy, this is clear, there are deals coming through and this is before the India deal and additional deal with BoA.

All in all, I suspect they may even hit the 33 million target, then later this year, at some point I might add, hit breakeven.

I would like to understand more about the investments, since, there may be a point this investment can be also reduced, thus increasing potential profit even more.

If they can hit 11 million one day, they will be worth 5 times todays values, that's £1.25.


As Silkstag keeps ignoring, OK, the past is the past, OK, yes, but what IF they do hit it, what then? Will she go and say I was wrong this time around, this point of time.?

Who knows who cares, it's about seizing the moment and opportunity rather than fumbling along like a period pain every day.

[delightfulstocks] 07/2/2017 21:02

Chadders, I am in the same view, multi-bagger from here. The signs are there, positive news flow will continue and whenever they hit break even, not a deal maker for me TBH, they will go go go.

go go go epo.

[silkstag] 07/2/2017 17:45

delightfulstocks, your post is weak, lazy, naive, amateurish, improper and unlawful. For readers who seek better input, below is a recap of some EPO representations under this CEO:

22 November 2010 RNS: “the Company is now fully funded to achieve its significant potential … We presently expect revenue from the current pipeline to start ramping up in early 2011 - slowly at first and then accelerating as the number of implementations increases and the live clients start increasing volumes. While we do not expect the Company to generate a profit in the full financial year ending June 2011, we do expect to end this period with a strong run-rate of revenues and to be well positioned for profitability in the periods ahead”.

31 March 2011 Interim Results: “the Board and management currently expect to achieve a cash flow positive run rate during the 2011/12 financial year”

21 December 2011 PG broker note “It is likely that the company will become cashflow positive during H2 2013”

28 March 2012 CS broker note “Our Central scenario assumes the company will breakeven in August 2013 ... Our Low scenario assumes the company is able to breakeven in April 2014 … High scenario … will breakeven in May 2013”.

22 November 2013 CS broker note: “company on course to reach positive monthly cashflow by the end of next year”

22 November 2013 Preliminary Accounts RNS “Based on the current run rate, already signed clients and advanced pipeline we are on course to reach a positive cash flow position within the expected timeframe [December 2014]”

3 March 2014 “the levels of minimum revenues associated with certain contracts are providing increasing visibility. The Company therefore remains confident in its ability to achieve positive cash flow position within the expected timeframe [December 2014].”

18 September 2014 PG broker note: “Earthport is now at the inflection point in profit terms with FY15 seeing the business turning cash positive with free cash flow of £1.8m. For FY16 we project revenues of £30m and free cash of £8.8m”.

13 March 2015 PG broker note: “Earthport is expected to show an operating loss for the 12 months to June 2015 of £2.3m. Within that it has signalled that it expects to become cash positive before year end … For FY16 we currently factor in revenues of £35m and an operating profit of £6.6m.”

18 March 2015 Interim results “The Board therefore remains confident of the Company's ability to achieve positive cash flow position within the expected timeframe for our existing business [June 2015]”

11 June 2015 PG broker note “Earthport is expected to show an operating loss for the 12 months to June 2015 of £2.3m.”

22 July 2015 PG broker note repeats FY15 expected operating loss of £2.3m.

4 August 2015 PG broker note belatedly alerted downgrades of “PBT changes” of “FY15 £4.9m loss (from £2.3m loss) owing to higher than forecast H2 investment, FY16 loss of £2.5m (from £6.6m profit)”.

29 September 2015, Preliminary accounts disclose: FY15 Operating loss of £8.0m; FY15 Loss Before Taxation of £8.7m.

25 January 2016 PG broker note “We reduce FY16 revenues from £30m to £23m, and FY17 from £48m to £31m … We reduce FY16 adj. PBTA from £(0.5m) to £(6.5m) and FY17 from £10m to £(3m)”.

21 March 2016 “it would appear that the overheads are considerably higher than our estimates, implying a full year loss higher than our £6.5m estimate at the underlying level. In H2 there is a one off loss of £5m from the previously announced Baydonhill fraud … We place our forecasts and price target under review."

Investors would be wise NOT to rely on any market representations or expectations given by EPO management.
all imho. dyor

[silkstag] 07/2/2017 13:43

No profit no pride.
No profitable extra revenue just loss making contracts. No acumen.
The closest EPO has come to profit is lying about expecting it. No shame.
Same lie every year from 2010-17. No integrity.
Serially breaching AIM rules by not abandoning its false profit expectations until way too late, long after internal management reports prove failure. No governance.

EPO: No profit no pride no acumen no shame no integrity no governance. No hope for investors!

MANDATORY SELL
all IMHO. Dyor

[delightfulstocks] 07/2/2017 13:02

I see, the deal is interesting and shall no doubt increase revenue.

[chadders] 07/2/2017 10:59

delightful, news was out a while ago but it's interesting that it should feature in India now so maybe there's been an update over there or they're just catching up.

[andrewsmith3] 03/2/2017 12:47

I can see this getting to 32p around Q1 this year, then onwards to 45p Q2 and then a breakout once we get some serious news to 70p for starters.

This as a min will go back to 40p on the back of solid revenue growth and prospects.

[easyhaveitdude] 03/2/2017 12:43

N+1 Singer reaffirmed their corporate rating on shares of Earthport plc (LON:EPO) in a report published on Tuesday morning.

Separately, Arden Partners Ltd reissued a buy rating on shares of Earthport plc in a research report on Tuesday, December 20th.

Earthport plc (LON:EPO) traded up 5.43% during mid-day trading on Tuesday, reaching GBX 24.25. 428,229 shares of the company’s stock traded hands. The company has a 50 day moving average price of GBX 22.87 and a 200-day moving average price of GBX 17.68. The stock’s market cap is GBX 114.36 million. Earthport plc has a 12 month low of GBX 11.00 and a 12 month high of GBX 29.50.