Eaga Share Discussion Threads

[nicobellic] 27/1/2011 12:11

Tivoli - you should have looked at easier places to make a gain. RKH from anywhere between 290 and 300 was a dead cert and 5 minutes reading would have made it clear that the price would rally to the high 300's in January. They are currently 350 and if they have good results next week £8-£10 isn't out of the question. I went long at 275 and closed at 366. Waiting until end of the week to see where it drops before in at £500pp long.

[tivoliworldgaming] 27/1/2011 12:10

At least me and nico will have something in common. At shammy's target price he will be down big on his short and I will be down 60K worth of potential profit.

[shammytime] 27/1/2011 12:08

nico - don't let emotions make your decisions. I'm here to make money and everything points to this going to high 90's short term.

At that point I will close my position....

[nicobellic] 27/1/2011 12:05

eeyrcr - eaga's cash cow is coming to an end and no replacement has been found. Nobody on this bb understands the real relevance that WF has to the overall business model. It underpins and subsidises everything else the business does (IT, supply chain, legal, marketing, support services, etc.). The annual results will show another £9.3pm of restructure costs and this will have a major impact on the p&l. I don't believe that this will go much higher than about 85p between now and the final results in 6 months time.

[tivoliworldgaming] 27/1/2011 12:05

I like to share my misfortunes or I feel to beaten up with myself. I guess knowing my luck you are right with your £1 target.

If this happens I can see myself giving up the shares. I be like one of those people on Deal or No Deal who took 9 grand, when they really had £250,000 in their box.

[eeyrcr] 27/1/2011 12:02

tivoliworldgaming - I'd stop reading forums if I were you ;o)

[tivoliworldgaming] 27/1/2011 12:01

I had £1,100 per point on this at around 60p, and I sold out because of nicobelics posts, at around 67p. I already have lost out on £8,000 and I am worried I loose out on a lot more.

Unfortunately I owe IG 11 grand on my margin, so there is no chance I can buy them back.

[eeyrcr] 27/1/2011 11:24

nicobellic - There are £13.6m of exceptional costs in there (of which £10.7m are due to restructuring). If it weren't for those exceptional items, profit would be up.

The picture doesn't look that bad at all to me!

[shammytime] 27/1/2011 10:37

Very strong morning thus far...

The results were very positive and better than expected. Company has millions in cash on the balance sheet which enables them to speed up future prospects.

We'll be back to £1 in no time.

[shammytime] 27/1/2011 09:53

Just got a text - the room is very impressed with plans for 2011

Get ready for the upgrades :)

[shammytime] 27/1/2011 09:22

Time running out chaps :) broker upgrades will be out in the public domain this morning

[shammytime] 27/1/2011 08:44

Completely disagree - last three trades prove it.

This is about to rise. Get in before 9:30am. I'm hearing talking of at least 4 upgrades to come out of it...

[envirovision] 27/1/2011 08:22

yes looks like an easy way to lose your cash fast by investing here.

[nicobellic] 27/1/2011 08:18

Very positive... Revenue is down. Profit is down. Welsh HEES lost. Negotiations for WF look good but the we're still letting 700 people leave the business because we're so confident of success... Oh, and we had to sink even more money into PV even though we did less than 1000 installs... But don't worry we've secured 3 concil contracts for maintenance and got a massive. 10000 houses to look after.....

You wait till the restructure costs hit the p&l and the writedowns on the assets hit the balance sheet. Annual figures will signal the end.

[letsgetbizzay] 27/1/2011 07:18

Highlights from this mornings RNS, which I thought was very positive and gives a clear indication of the direction of the company.

============================================================================
CHAIRMAN COMMENT
More recently, I am pleased to report that the Group has seen a number of more positive market and trading developments which reinforce our belief that Eaga remains strategically well positioned to deliver profitable growth in the medium and long term.

* As expected, first half trading has been impacted short term market factors
* Group revenue GBP308.1m (2009: GBP391.5m)
* Underlying trading EBITA (1) of GBP16.0m (2009: GBP24.3m)
* PBTA (2) GBP12.8m (2009: GBP23.9m)
* Underlying adjusted (3) diluted earnings per share of 4.42p (2009: 6.74p)
* Exceptional costs incurred of GBP13.6m (2009: GBPnil) including restructuring costs of GBP10.7m (2009:GBPnil)
* Balance sheet and financial position remain robust
* Maintained interim dividend of 1.21p (2009: 1.21p) per share

Operational Highlights

* Substantial progress on our solar pv project
* Negotiations for Warm Front contract until 31 March 2013 at advanced stage
* Significant increase in Carbon Emissions Reduction Target ('CERT')
* Achieved acceptable profit margin in heating despite market conditions
* Operational restructuring swiftly implemented and on track
============================================================================

I think this stock deserves a rerating on the back of this update, especially if you you consider the bashing it has taken in the past few months. Presentation at 9:30am today and I'm led to believe a number of analysts will be in attendance.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a sharp mark up on open ;-)

[shammytime] 26/1/2011 16:37

Highly unlikely Honiton. 12% increase in net earnings will surprise everyone. Big mark up on open

[honiton] 26/1/2011 16:35

will be under 69p tomorrow....

[shammytime] 26/1/2011 16:28

Last call and last chance to buy under 71 :-D

Here's to the RNS tomorrow morning!

[shammytime] 26/1/2011 16:04

Decent volume today. I think the statement will catch a lot of people off guard. This will be closer to 80 come opening tomorrow...

[shammytime] 26/1/2011 14:26

Seems determined on finishing up for the day - bodes well for tomorrow

[shammytime] 26/1/2011 11:51

I think we could see a very sharp rise on the back of tomorrow morning's statement. Anything in the region of 12% should see us racing back towards £1 :-D

[shammytime] 26/1/2011 10:30

Net profit increase of 12% is likely to be reported, so I've heard...

[nicobellic] 15/1/2011 20:23

Have a read of my previous posts - nothing has changed IMO. IMS due in next couple of weeks. Either good news or the start of a painful demise.

[eeyrcr] 15/1/2011 17:18

From what I can make of the company's last results, whilst Warm Front contributed a large proportion of the company's turnover, it only provided 2.5% of the profit.

Assuming the associated overheads can be trimmed as quickly as the turnover is reduced, this shouldn't have too much impact on the company in the long run, in my opinion.

Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity and all that...!

Anyone else got any thoughts?!

[nicobellic] 26/12/2010 16:11

Goldenfortunes - have you done any research! The government has operated a scheme to provide central heating for years - it's called warm front!

Either you're not aware of this or you appear to be suggesting that c12 weeks after announcing the definite end of warm front and cutting it's final 2 years of funding by over 50% that the coalition will now change it's mind and restart the same scheme or start a similar one?

I doubt it very much. They have announced the green deal and will encourage individuals to use their utility to have work funded through CESP & CERT. If you've done your research you'll be well aware of the impact these schemes have on Eaga's fortunes.

This isn't a secret! Why are Eaga putting all of the warm front employees at risk of redundancy if they think DECC will soon announce a change of heart?....

If you don't believe me check google for news of warm front going, the redundancies (Newcastle chronicle and journal week before last), and the new schemes.