Driver Share Discussion Threads

[ed 123] 24/5/2016 07:33

Better or worse than expected?

Half year revenue £27.9M.

Cash outflow from operating activities £3.2M.

Half year loss per share 10.9p, following previous loss per share of 6.8p.

To me, the Outlook statement doesn't say they have a grip on things yet. I guess there are further losses to come?

Shareprice? Down a bit more on opening? But, who knows?

[sharkman returns] 10/5/2016 12:30

took some earlier

[effy123] 10/5/2016 11:26

Hmmm, almost prophetic.

All very predictable, though looks like a bit of an over reaction in the share price

[effy123] 02/3/2016 13:18

Must say I'm quite surprised that Dave Webster is stepping down. I doubt that he has been "booted into the non execs", probably more of a personal decision that perhaps he has taken the company as far as he can. Initiate seem to be running the show now and I wonder if that may have been the plan all along.

Interesting times ahead in the medium/long term although the danger short term is that the new man may want clear the decks and get all the bad news out in the open. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a negative trading trading statement together with revised forecasts in the next month or so.

[ed 123] 02/3/2016 11:04

Looking at the history of Driver, today's statement won't have come as a complete surprise. The story is a combination of some difficult markets and Dave Webster's inability to manage well a business with £60 million turnover. So, Dave Webster is booted into the non-execs and steps are taken to control costs and grow where markets are stonger. Will that work?

For me, there's no point in trying to estimate earnings. At this stage, management can't even do that (except that they expect revenues to be back end loaded), so as a private investor I'd have no chance. I do expect more exceptional costs, though.

Thankfully, I got wobbly on this one and exited at 71p. I'll watch out for further updates but won't be hurrying back in. I'd want to see an end to exceptional costs.

Share price down 13p at 60.5p atm.

[mach100] 27/2/2016 12:00

Thanks RP, not long to wait. I have parked this one on my watchlist but would like to get aboard before it starts to really motor.

[rp19] 23/2/2016 21:58

AGM (and probably an accompanying statement) is Wed 2 March.

[mach100] 22/2/2016 20:06

Interesting company and certainly on my watchlist puku. Seems ignored by the market. When is the update?

[puku] 22/2/2016 16:26

very quiet board, which I like. As you say revenues up strongly and all the underlying profit made in second half. Reorganisation costs out of the way. Forecast are for eps 8.8p then 11.2p. Bought in today prior to update, 2-year target 120p

[interceptor2] 08/12/2015 09:46

After the large investment in HI, it would seem that H2 was profitable and revenues increased by 38%. So investment and stratic 4 year plan is starting to feed through now.

Happy to hold my initial position here and look forward to the next trading update in February.

[cfro] 08/12/2015 08:36

Results out - strong H2 with year 1 of 4 year plan in place.

[interceptor2] 12/10/2015 10:01

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

Always a good idea to be cautious and aware of the negative in all companies held in our portfolio's, and important to highlight to two areas of caution expressed in the recent trading update. The trading update was mainly upbeat with trading clearly picking up from June onwards particularly in the AMEA region where they see global spend increasing to 60% in the next decade.

There were a few sentences of caution, yet the CEO buys 200k shares as soon as he is allowed after the trading update. I can only conclude that a CEO buying a significant amount of shares indicates that he can see the risk/reward favour a good rise in the price and sees value at this level.

As well as the stronger trading update, the chart pattern and history of director buys is the reason I decided to buy into DRV again. Worth looking at the chart in late 2011 before it turned up and made a significant advance, I think the chart looks similar to what we can see today. Directors bought on 8 separate occasions between June 2011 and January 2012, which was very well timed just before a major advance in the share price. Now between February 2015 to today there have been 6 director buys including the most significant last week from the CEO.

In February 2012 I bought in on an ahead trading update at 38p, this time I have bought in earlier in the cycle due to hopefully recognising a similar historic set up. I will look forward to looking carefully at the full year results in December, which I expect to look messy with exceptionals clouding the picture, but the outlook statement should key here, perhaps setting up the company to issues a rather positive trading update in February.

[johnwise] 11/10/2015 21:48

David Webster, Chief Executive.... "Looking ahead to 2015-16, given the revenue growth and profits in H2 of 2014-15, the strong performance in Q4 and the opportunities developing in our pipeline we are confident of maintaining double digit revenue growth and in meeting market forecasts for 2015-16."

[buffetteer] 11/10/2015 09:35

This stacks up nicely with their plan to double profitability. My concern is their markets in oil regions is surely shrinking as budgets are slashed .

[interceptor2] 10/10/2015 17:19

Link below is food for thought imo.



While updating my records I found a very interesting RNS, 27th March 2015. Steve Norris Chairman granted 600k options, but they can only be exercised if underlying EPS meets the following targets by September 2017.

20p 200k
25p 200k
30p 200k

Speaks volumes about the directors expectations within 2 years.

[saucepan] 07/10/2015 10:20

Great observations, interceptor2, and thanks for flagging. I have joined the good company here in both senses of the word. Three key catalysts for me:

* the trading statement
* the technical breakout
* the director purchase

[interceptor2] 07/10/2015 09:31

It certainly was a huge vote of confidence, I also bought in this after yesterdays trading update, and bought some more this morning.

Looking at the chart and comparing it to late 2011, It has a very similar feel and look before it made a very good advance in 2012/13.

I checked my notes when I held these before from early 2012, worth looking back at director dealing between June 2011 and January 2012, then compare director dealing from February 2015 to today. As well as the chart having similar pattern, the director buys also look similar.

[cfro] 07/10/2015 07:53

A fabulous vote of confidence from the CEO.

[johnwise] 07/10/2015 07:23

07 October 2015


RNS Number : 4507B

Driver Group plc (DRV)

07 October 2015

Director/PDMR Shareholding

Driver Group plc (AIM: DRV.L), the global management and advisory consultancy to construction and engineering industries, announces that it has been notified by Mr Dave Webster, Chief Executive of the Company, that on 6 October 2015, he acquired 200,000 ordinary shares at an average price of 68.75 pence per share. These shares will be held in Mr Webster's SIPP.

Following this transaction, Mr Webster's beneficial holding in the Company is 2,252,088 ordinary shares, representing approximately 7.26 per cent. of the Company's issued share capital.

[cfro] 06/10/2015 22:31

I bought a few today. Thought the TS was quite interesting. All told there were a few negatives but one does get the impression that the meat of the business is doing rather well..

I like the chart too where it looks as though a bottom has definitely been formed. Another positive is the Non-exec buy recently @70.5p. I'm not seeing many directors or non-execs buying in these markets, so that is a major plus imo.

Some good informative posts here, thanks btw.

[ed 123] 06/10/2015 08:42

In this update we are told,

Underlying operating profits for the year ended 30 September 2015 are in line with market expectations, but will be impacted by approximately £0.45 million as outlined below.

Exceptionals again! - ok for the insolvency, but maybe they should just take currency movements as 'normal'.

Having read some caution in the narrative accompanying the interims, I see today's statement as reassuring. To me, Driver now looks a bit safer and a growth stock moving forward. Added a few this morning. No advice intended.

[ed 123] 02/10/2015 10:16

Thanks, Nobert Colon. :-)

Driver bought Initiate recently. I would hope that they are now fully focussed on the performance of what they already have. For Driver to make a large acquistion at this time would be a worry for me. I want to see an end to exceptional losses. When Driver is producing good earnings and no exceptionals, they may be ready for a bolt-on size acquisition. Anyway, there is plenty of scope for organic growth - if managment is truly up to the task.

Fwiw, I am the other way round, holding DRV but no CSG. Driver has been a wild enough ride for me. I do hope CSG goes well for you - but until their 'issue' is finally closed, I'm only watching.

[norbert colon] 02/10/2015 09:19

I have posted some related thoughts on the CSG thread:



I declare I hold CSG and not DRV

[rp19] 02/10/2015 09:17

Medium to long term I think they are probably on-track. However, the half year report alluded to the "difficulties in predicting the second half of this financial year and that short term forecasts for 2015 may be subject to change". So it will be interesting to see what any Trading Statement reveals re short term progress. I hold and would rather them be a bit conservative than gung-ho in their outlook.