Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Dobbies Garden Centres LSE:DGC London Ordinary Share GB0002729738 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 1,265.00p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0.00 05:00:10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Retailers - - - - 127.09

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Dobbies Garden Centres (DGC) Discussions and Chat

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Date Time Title Posts
13/5/200917:12Dobbies what price a bid ?157.00
17/7/200719:18Win Win situation with Dobies fill your trolleys1.00
30/5/200715:39WOW - DOBBIES STUNNING RESULTS152.00
22/6/200408:03Dobbies Garden Centres130.00
13/4/200315:01Garden Centre Comparisons - dobbies vs wyevale9.00

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Dobbies Garden Centres (DGC) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
09/8/2007
09:33
gengulphus: I doubt that Tesco's announcement this morning has made any real difference to the price today, because it contains nothing remotely unexpected. Their number of acceptances has gone up slightly (just short of 40k shares) since the last update - I must admit that I'm not quite certain why anyone has accepted recently, but presumably there are a few people in special situations... They were clearly going to extend the offer, given the possibility of Tom Hunter deciding not to bid and the share price subsequently dropping to below 1500p, and the 60-day limit means that August 19th has to be the final closing date except with the Takeover Panel's consent (which I'm pretty certain they'll get if Tom Hunter does bid!). The real interest today is in Tom Hunter's announcement, which he has to make one way or another by 5pm. If he announces a bid, it has to be at least 1845p, and there will be a competitive situation, so I expect the price to rise to something higher than that level on the possibility that Tesco will then raise their offer. If he announces that he's not bidding, I expect the price to fall, quite possibly to a bit below 1500p, but no lower, and it will be possible to get 1500p anyway by accepting the offer. So on the current market bid price of 1620p, there's about 120p of downside and 225p+ of upside - which suggests the market is assessing the chances of him bidding at about 1 in 3. Gengulphus
07/8/2007
09:07
gengulphus: Stalemate forever would suit me fine. It's a good company and I'd like to continue owning part of it. If Tesco and Tom Hunter each own 25-30% of it, there's still enough around for others, and plenty of opportunity for future competition between them to take it over... However, a plausible scenario is that Tesco extend the deadline for their offer (I cannot imagine them not doing so at this point), Tom Hunter decides not to bid, as a result the share price drops below 1500p, and then a lot of other investors accept the Tesco offer. Tesco end up with more than 50%, so have operational control; Tom Hunter ends up with more than 25%, so Tesco don't have full control; everybody else no longer really counts at all, but is just along for the ride. Of course, under that scenario, Tom Hunter effectively gives up the chance ever to get the company... So basically, if he decides not to bid at this point, his prospects of doing so in the future are purely in the hands of third party investors deciding whether to hang on to their stake and hope he does so later (to be precise, at least 6 months later) or to take what they can get for it now. Given the often short-term way in which investors often make that sort of decision - especially investors attracted in by the bid situation - that's a considerable risk, and so an incentive for him to bid now. Gengulphus
05/7/2007
18:55
gengulphus: Are you certain? I'm not certain I've got this right, but I think all the stuff about "exempt principal trader", "recognised intermediary status" and "dealing in a client-serving capacity" is to do with an exception in the Takeover Code: if one part of an organisation is acting as an adviser in a takeover, and another part is for instance acting as a broker for third parties, and the organisation convinces the Takeover Panel that the two parts are well enough insulated from each other, then dealing for the broker's clients doesn't count as dealing by the advisor and so doesn't commit the offeror to paying that price. I would also be distinctly surprised if Tesco were to commit itself to paying an extra 65p per share for the sake of getting their hands on the 5,257 shares mentioned in that announcement - it's basically just too small a number of shares... My guess is that the price rise is just due to a slight change in people's assessments of the chances of Tom Hunter launching a rival bid - with Tesco offering 1500p and Tom Hunter having to offer at least 1845p if he bids at all, it only takes a 5% increase in the assessed chances of him making a bid to justify a share price rise of around 17p... Gengulphus
26/6/2007
09:36
tuffbet: The market cap of DGC is small beer for the players round this table which is what makes me think the price eventually paid for DGC will not reflect so much it's value as a stand alone business. For Tesco it's a strategically important broadening of their base and having now shown their hand to the opposition ie how they are thinking and what direction they are moving in they have much more than the added value of DGC as a part of their empire to lose if they don't now get it. As for M&S + Waitrose getting DGC would be more important as a spoiler - they have to do as much as possible to stop Tesco achieving even greater dominance and buying power so that although they won't admit it would be their prime reason for participating if indeed they are. The fact that DGC would also be a pretty good addition to either retailers business model gives a rival bid from them something of a double whammie so I can certainly see why they could be interested. I said earlier at DGc's market cap level a few pounds more on the share price is neither here nor there in the bigger picture - just have a look at what level executive benefits have now reached,even paying the failures off now cost hundreds of millions and shareholders don't generally bat an eyelid.
21/6/2007
08:05
gengulphus: My view of the state of play: Tom Hunter has achieved his obvious immediate goal: blocking Tesco from an outright takeover of the company - without his agreement, they cannot win the vote if they use the scheme of arrangement route, and while they can still take control of the company if they use the traditional takeover route, they cannot take full control or delist the company, let alone compulsorily purchase the shares they don't control. By lowering the acceptance condition to 50%, Tesco have indicated that they would be OK with getting control but not full control. However, they're not going to be getting many additional acceptances of the offer beyond those they announced had been given irrevocably in their original offer announcement: anyone who wants out can get a better price in the market, and those purchasing the shares at current prices are unlikely to be doing so with the objective of selling them on to Tesco at £15... If they want their bid to succeed, they have to either raise it or wait and hope that the market price will drop to below £15. With his blocking holding, Tom Hunter can now afford to take a breather from buying shares. He has three options for his route forward: 1) Sell out to Tesco, which he will presumably only be willing to do if they raise their bid sufficiently. 2) Content himself with his blocking holding - let Tesco take control, but be a significant irritation to them, especially as any profits they make from the company will also be enriching their competition... 3) Make a bid himself, which has to be at least at the highest price he'spaid for shares recently, i.e. 1845p. If he goes on buying at the rate he has been, he'll just be limiting his own options - first by driving the price up further, which raises the level at which he has to pitch a bid if he makes one, secondly by forcing him to make a bid if he goes over 30% of the company. So I would expect him to ease off on the buying and see whether he can let the price drift down again - until and unless Tesco raise their offer or the Takeover Panel issues a "put up or shut up" deadline, he would probably prefer to be buying slowly at prices more in the £16 region than rapidly in the £18 region... So my impression is that for the immediate future, both players would probably prefer to see the share price drift down - their short-term goals probably don't diverge from each other until the price gets rather closer to £15. Whether market excitement will permit the share price to drift down that much is of course another question, but I suspect we're going to get at least a bit of a breather compared with the last week or so... Gengulphus
19/6/2007
17:53
bigbertie: SAGEM - this is old stuff. At the current price of nearly 1,800p Dobbies enterprise value is nearly £230m (180m mkt cap plus about 50m debt) but its net assets are only about 40m. So if property freeholds are undervalued by 20m the present share price is still well above the true valuation. Your numbers look out of date (it's some time since WCC had only 3.7%) but even if the undervaluation were double that, ie 40m, the current share price is still at a huge premium! I'm not complaining of course.
01/6/2007
13:52
tuffbet: Glyn10 Thanks for that. I am looking at DGC as a long term investment and would probably only look to trade it if a bid came in well above what I thought might be a take out price so I am not too worried about what might happen in "cooler" periods ie when TH isn't getting a mention. As I have intimated I think this is a great type of business to have some exposure to eg if the Chinese market tanks by say up to 30% some time soon ,which must be a possibility it's not the type of business which is going to suffer in the wake of that altho the share price will get some blow back from such an event. So I am happier there than holding some of the much more internartional blue chips and if TH does back away I think there will be others who will quite quickly fill the void. See we have managed to touch £14 today which is another nice move in percentage terms
30/5/2007
15:51
tuffbet: growthhunter I think I have probably covered that point in the two posts above in that I believe they have the ability and the marketing expertise now to keep bringing in customers throughout the year. I was in one last Xmas and you couldn't move in the tearooms and gifts section both of which are now even bigger. They have the type of client base which likes to go out browse shopping/tea and buns , present for the grandchildren , card for the new neighbour mentality and they like the fact that they usually don't have to go into town or to a large shopping mall to do that - as a rule older people don't like driving in city centres or large Tesco type car parks and a run into the country to an open car park which they are not sharing with the supermarket and M&S shoppers has an appeal younger people find difficult to understand. It's my belief that one of the reasons DGC's share price was slow to catch up with the potential for the business is the fact that most people haven't yet grasped that while Garden Centres must to an extent be seasonal it is no longer hobby gardeners who are running these businesses but hard headed business men. They know they have shareholders to report to infact many of these companies even below the quoted level now have the knowledge and expertise to handle the seasonality factor and have built all year round business models.
30/5/2007
15:33
tuffbet: As his wealth would suggest Hunter has his business head well screwed on and I think he is again right on the ball if he is indeed looking to buy DGC as his holding suggests. While Mr Hunter and Dobbies are now nationally known both have their roots (no pun intended) in Scotland and I think this is significant because I have a feeling that Mr Hunter would love to get his hands on this prized Scottish asset. While he is a hard headed business man an would I am sure never let sentiment rule his business judgement I have a feeling that sometimes, but especially when you are very rich, you are prepared to pay that little bit more or go just that bit further to get something which you can associate with in the early part of your life and the ownership of which could never have been considered as even a remote possibility. If a fight develops for Dobbies, which I think it will, I don't expect Mr Hunter to give up easily so as I see it the price could go much higher . The second factor which makes me think the current price could be well below the takeout level is that it's generally accepted that whatever your buying you pay as little as possible in order to maximize the profit potential or simply the pleasure of securing ownership at a price which seems a bargain relative to the joy of ownership. The fact that purchases are being made at or around the all time high for DGC's share price suggests that the buyers are fairly desperate or determined to mop up whatever shares they can get now . Why should taht be ? Well perhaps they think there is little chance of getting them much cheaper and if they wait for a better opportunity ie a lower price a third party may just pick up a strategically vital percentage of the shares before they do. Just my own humble opinion - glad to hear what others think . On a separate but related note I am just back from a holiday in Scotland and visited one or two garden centres during that visit none of which were owned by Dobbie's. What I came away with on each occasion was renewed confirmation of my long held view that a well run garden centre is a potential gold mine. I watched the buses rolling in and each contained about 30 people average age around 65 all with time to burn and money to spend. Those who were not spending on gardening items were either spending in the cafeterias or buying gifts, cards etc all the items with high mark ups - I can't think of a better business to be in right now it even looks recession proof ! Throw in the asset side of thinks ie valuable land and you have a business model which it seems to me the likes of Warren Buffett would be keen to invest in ie asset rich ,cash generative, relatively simply franchise and one which can be expanded globally with some modification . May be wrong but I can't see Dobbies going for under £15 in the midst of the current acquisitions boom
30/5/2007
14:52
tuffbet: As his wealth would suggest Hunter has his business head well screwed on and I think he is again right on the ball if he is indeed looking to buy DGC as his holding suggests. While Mr Hunter and Dobbies are now nationally known both have their roots (no pun intended) in Scotland and I think this is significant because I have a feeling that Mr Hunter would love to get his hands on this prized Scottish asset. While he is a hard headed business man an would I am sure never let sentiment rule his business judgement I have a feeling that sometimes, but especially when you are very rich, you are prepared to pay that little bit more or go just that bit further to get something which you can associate with in the early part of your life and the ownership of which could never have been considered as even a remote possibility. If a fight develops for Dobbies, which I think it will, I don't expect Mr Hunter to give up easily so as I see it the price could go much higher . The second factor which makes me think the current price could be well below the takeout level is that it's generally accepted that whatever your buying you pay as little as possible in order to maximize the profit potential or simply the pleasure of securing ownership at a price which seems a bargain relative to the joy of ownership. The fact that purchases are being made at or around the all time high for DGC's share price suggests that the buyers are fairly desperate or determined to mop up whatever shares they can get now . Why should taht be ? Well perhaps they think there is little chance of getting them much cheaper and if they wait for a better opportunity ie a lower price a third party may just pick up a strategically vital percentage of the shares before they do. Just my own humble opinion - glad to hear what others think . On a separate but related note I am just back from a holiday in Scotland and visited one or two garden centres during that visit none of which were owned by Dobbie's. What I came away with on each occasion was renewed confirmation of my long held view that a well run garden centre is a potential gold mine. I watched the buses rolling in and each contained about 30 people average age around 65 all with time to burn and money to spend. Those who were not spending on gardening items were either spending in the cafeterias or buying gifts, cards etc all the items with high mark ups - I can't think of a better business to be in right now it even looks recession proof ! Throw in the asset side of thinks ie valuable land and you have a business model which it seems to me the likes of Warren Buffett would be keen to invest in ie asset rich ,cash generative, relatively simply franchise and one which can be expanded globally with some modification . May be wrong but I can't see Dobbies going for under £15 in the midst of the current acquisitions boom
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