Distil Share Discussion Threads

[baticle] 27/1/2017 17:33

I'll drink to that !

[acdc52] 27/1/2017 14:33

Looking forward to over £10m capitalisation soon.

[altcell] 27/1/2017 06:52

distil may be many things. But fully valued at 2p ain't one of them.

[berny3] 26/1/2017 16:46

BB worth noting at what similar companies have been bought for in the market. Fever Tree is being priced on case sale value rather than pe. Small drinks companies (singular, few products) are priced on case sales. look at the buy out of Bruichladdich by Remy and recently Sipsmith bought by Beam.

If you look at case sales if we achieve £1.7mln revenue FY ending 2017 estimate roughly 40-50K case sales. At 9mln mrkt cap that is £180 per case. A market value should be more like £400 - £600 per case on a conservative basis.

[acdc52] 26/1/2017 16:32

If you are a serious long term investor looking for growth, Distil is a perfect. If you are a short term trader looking for quick buck, Distil is not for You.

[biggest bill] 26/1/2017 15:50

I will keep an eye on Distil. One of the things that is putting me off at the moment is the recent sharp rise in the share price. Usually, when I invest in a share which has risen sharply, the share price falls. I will let things calm down for a while and see if I might get a better investment opportunity later. If I don't, that's life and I'll move on to some other company. Who knows, I might be missing the opportunity of a lifetime here but it's very hard to forecast the future.

[glennborthwick] 26/1/2017 15:36

The other thing Bill is that barriers to entry are quite high and its relatively easy to hit worldwide markets as distributors are well established. US now but also AUstralia it has a following, Spain has a big Gin market.

Lets look at Reggae Reggae sauce of dragons den fame. That's reportedly worth 60 million now.
Already products of dis are in multiple supermarkets with hopefully the gaps to be filled this year.

The end game here is grow Redleg, make it a success in USA and Australia and sell brand to Diageo et al.

Theres not much down side. It was valued at 5 million when loss making. Its now probably turning a profit and has cash .

[lr2] 26/1/2017 15:29

Well, good luck searching for a better investment. Please pop back and let me know when you find one as I'd be interested to do some research on it.

[jamiedodge] 26/1/2017 15:27

This is a good and informative board here Bill. I don't post much but always look in.

[biggest bill] 26/1/2017 15:13

I always value companies by their earning potential. The problem with possible bids is that they are not certain to happen and they usually don't. I have always done well using this approach and I don't see any reason to change it. Even the possible profits I have pencilled in for future years assume very substantial revenue growth and that is not guaranteed.

[waterloo01] 26/1/2017 15:07

It would a great deal cheaper for a Diageo to buy DIS just for the rum than to launch their own.

[dante17] 26/1/2017 15:06

BB, you are approaching this all wrong. The value of Distil is not determined just by its earnings potential as a regular boring trading company. Its mission is to grow its brands and then sell them off to big players who are currently valuing interesting craft brands at very high multiples of case sales. As of today, RedLeg itself is worth more than 10 million pounds, more than the current market cap. Take into account Blackwoods, Blavod and the rest and you realize looking at silly PE ratios of 10 to 20 is meaningless. A valuation of 3-5p is very logical by the summer if the company can announce maiden profits in three months, and much higher when bids are made for either of its current fast-growth brands. I'm saying when not if.

[lr2] 26/1/2017 15:04

And the year after that the P/E ratio is estimated down to 19. It's all about future growth. If you see no growth then you will be right about the share price. Revenue growth was up 70% on last figures and no USA sales yet. I believe revenue growth is doing just fine and will continue so.

[acdc52] 26/1/2017 15:02

Biggest Bill, shame you are missing out.
Distil Plc: Quick ratio: 5.58, Current ratio: 6.49. These ratios indicate a solid healthy company. Ratios between 1.5 & 3 are signs of healthy company. Touchwood, this company will be trading in double digits soon and triple digits in due course.

[biggest bill] 26/1/2017 14:56

I was actually looking at this company as a possible investment. However, I think the company is fully priced at the moment.

[biggest bill] 26/1/2017 14:53

The problem is that the prospective pe ratio for this company is infinite. Even the pe ratio for the next year is over 50.

[lr2] 26/1/2017 14:47

And yet Fevertree's P/E ratio is 105.

I'd suggest a non-growth / low growth small consumer company might have a P/E between 10 and 20.

It's a different ballgame when a company is high growth.

[biggest bill] 26/1/2017 14:39

I think some of the forecast capitalisations for this company look rather optimistic.
The average small company making consumer goods is valued at between 10 and 20 times earnings. It looks as if the 2016/17 results will be around breakeven with perhaps £150,000 profit for 2017/18 and maybe £300,000 for 2018/19. Most companies would be valued at between 2 to 4 million with these sorts of prospects (which are not guaranteed) which would give a share price of less than one penny.

[acdc52] 26/1/2017 13:04

I reckon in six months/final results, capitalisation should be around £50m. If final results are positive then sky is the limit.

[kmann] 26/1/2017 11:22

I can see this doing well this year. Apply a Fevertree p/e ratio here, same sector, same growth rates, same objectives. Could be looking at 3-5p+ this year.

[acdc52] 26/1/2017 11:19

Capitalisation in excess of £10m looks imminent as long term serious investors are investing in Distil @1.70p.

[waterloo01] 26/1/2017 10:24

Excellent Diagio results, especially driven by spirit sales into the US.

[buoycat] 25/1/2017 12:34

Weak holders is the phrase you're looking for!

[lr2] 25/1/2017 12:23

Agree with you Boffster. Only 37.5k shares available on line at 1.6p. They are after cheap sales.