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Distil Share Discussion Threads
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|Thanks Berny3. Helium Rising Star funds have invested just under £1m in Colagen Solutions and fundamentals of COS is not that great. They made £1m loss last year and forecast for this year is not looking so good either. I guess Helium guys only interested in Research based Pharma companies. Keeping fingers crossed for better results for Distil this year.|
|Interesting on line quote. Not letting go of too many right now but happy to take lots from holders.
1.469p (500k) - 1.5p (35k)|
|A lot of the company is closely held. I think the top three shareholders have close on 30% of the company. i.e. it is very difficult to accumulate a position without moving the price substantially.
Another big institution to buy in would be difficult - try and buy 1,000,000 shares £14K - drop in the Ocean for an institution. Try buying 10,000,000 shares £140k more towards a small institutional investor. market makers are very unlikely to have that balance available and would need to push the price to build liquidity to get hold of that type of balance.
The market makers are going to have a difficult time with the stock hence my previous comment in not worrying too much on current price. There have not been any substantial sellers over the past few days and sales have been met by larger buys. It is likely there are orders out with the market makers already to accumulate the sales that are coming through. Hence we are seeing price drops met by prices returning back to flat.|
|doesn't look good|
|I am surprised, Distil hasn't caught attention of investors like Helium (ISPartners Investment Solutions AG).|
|Great stuff Berny3...thanks for the input...time to buy some more|
|agreed dc - but i would not pay a great deal of attention to the current share price as the company has to be getting close to 50,000 case sales. we are likely now to be cash flow positive with no debt at least £800K cash on balance sheet and valued at now 6 - 7 mln mkt cap that equates to a £140 case value. Company should be closer to £500 - £1,000 case value.
Sipsmith was reported to be sold for £50mln - private company with debt and circa 180 - 300K profit. If you add back in listing costs for Distil getting into the same ball park for pnl. Distil has a more diverse portfolio and has undertaken the headache of getting its brands available to sell into the US. A lot of potential value|
|The next stage in the share price recovery is for there not to be a decent pullback on a good news spike.
This will frustrate all those who sold at 1.4 expecting to get back in at a lower level
Once that happens, maybe this time, maybe on the actual results, we'll start to get some proper traction on the share price.|
|running the figures:
Revenue based on 71% growth in revenues should be close to £1,092.69K in 2nd half plus £666K 1st half gives FY Revenue expectations £1,758.69K
It is Gross margin that comes into questions. Higher revenue growth than volume growth suggests improved margins. Current GP is around 56%.
Estimated GP = £984.87K
Administration costs. Big increase in advertising using previous figures with 88% uplift equates to advertising costs = £422.36K FY (276.36 + 146)
Other Admin costs are around £500K
So we should be looking for around £60K profit FY.
Upside adjustments to come. We know that there are US pipe fill for Redleg Rum for 2017. Not sure if this is included in the figures associated with last trading update. If not there must be some additional volume to add for this.
Next positive would be to get Redleg/Blackwoods listed in another Supermarket Co-op, Asda etc or to get either or both listed in a major pub chain.
Looks good for where we currently stand but also decent possibility of further upside.
Being profitable if the business is now is great news and this enables investment in growth positivity in the brands which leads to further growth.|
|What's the production capacity? Without the capacity to produce more stock they cannot increase sales. How much will it cost to build a larger distillery?
I see this going down.|
|News is filtering out through press. Awareness of the company will increase. These figures are strong and especially if the board announce results should be above expectations. Sipsmith has just be bought out. It would not be too big a jump to feel that larger players would be looking at the Distil portfolio. Listed company no debt would make a good acquisition for a larger non listed player.
Interesting times ahead.|
|Great!!!! Thanks IR2|
|There's more if you download the pdf, Acdc52. Here's the rest from the first page. I'm not going to attempt to print the tables showing future forecasts however.
Strong Christmas trading : Distil performed strongly in the UK in the
peak Q3 trading season, with consumer sales moving ahead across all
trade channels. Incremental supermarket listings with major chains
has contributed to growth in the Retail channel, but this has been
mirrored in the bars and pubs channel, as well as on-line retail. This
growth has been driven by the cumulative marketing investments and
promotional activity, which have delivered greater consumer
awareness and wider distribution. Blackwoods gin has seen good
growth in the buoyant premium gin sector. RedLeg has also
progressed well, with Distil focusing on opening new market, including
its launch into the USA.
Export markets: Sterling weakness has been beneficial for export
sales, with distributors taking advantage to effectively reduce their
purchase costs. Trading conditions remain tough as previously for
Blavod black vodka in Eastern Europe, but with sales being through a
licence, the impact on profits is negligible.
Forecast upgrades: We have raised our FY17 revenue forecast by c
9% to £1.65m, implying around 30% growth in Q4, similar to H1’s
reported growth. As said above, this reduces our forecast PBT loss by
around two thirds to £40K. We have not changed our outer year
revenue growth forecasts – of 25% for FY18 and 20% for FY19 – but
there is a positive benefit from FY17’s higher sales base on outer year
profitability. We now forecast PBT of £100K and £300K (from £59K
and £265K), with gross profit gains tempered by the need for ongoing
brand investment. We shall next formally review our forecasts at the
|Thank you IR2, here is the report from the website you mentioned:
DISTIL: SUCCESSFUL CHRISTMAS TRADING LEADS TO ....FORECAST UPGRADES
Distil plc | Published on 17/01/2017
On the back of a very strong Q3 trading period, with revenues up by
over 70% and volumes by 56%, the Board now anticipates that
Distil’s FY17 results “will be ahead of current market expectations”.
We are consequently raising our revenue forecasts for the next three
years, which also see improvements to our bottom line PBT
projections. Brand marketing spend growth of 88% in Q3 was
running ahead of revenue growth, reflecting the ongoing brand
investment across the product portfolio. This dilutes the impact of
operational leverage, but still sees our previous PBT loss of c £120K
reduce by to thirds to £40K. A strong Q4 performance could
potentially see Distil achieve breakeven, but we prefer to err on the
side of prudence at this stage.|
|Been holding for 2 1/2 years now. Looks as though patience is going to be rewarded.|
|Year-on-year third quarter (Oct-Dec 2016) revenues climbed by 71%, volumes grew by 56% and brand marketing investment increased by 88%.
Moving nicely again.|
|A lot of fresh money has been invested here today and plenty of weak hands have sold out. The new holders won't be selling at a loss so I see a healthy consolidation building at around 1.5p, making ground for a move to 2p as news of RedLeg's first shipments to the US and elsewhere comes through. 2p is not far away.|
|well great news, up up and away just how many years before 25p is reached|
|Depends on the promo spend I think.
The last update suggests they held back in Q2 promo spend and this one suggests they really went for it in Q3.
Not sure what the broker forecast was but they are going to smash it based on this update. definitely in the right ballpark Berny.|
|Well done Don. We will no doubt record our maiden profit as Distil plc for fiscal year 2017, and then the sky's the limit.|
|Touchwood, break-even at the year end 31/3/17.|
|Genuinely good update, as I expected. Should get tipped all over the spectrum imo.|