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Real-Time news about Disperse Tech (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|tyranosaurus: Why has DPT share price disappeared along with the trades etc ??
I tried DPG but comes up with "unknown symbol"|
|desert_fox: Mr Rex,
The news about Neil Morley has been in the (semi) public arena for some time and has was also included in Blank Frank's post 156 above. In my opinion, this is a good move since the original Disperse directors have not made sufficient progress with commercialising the technology. Neil was only the company secretary and has not signalled any intentions to sell his stock. So I would not view this as a negative move at all. The futuire of this company is expanding EF using the original DPT technology as a sort of unique selling point.
It is a shame about the lack of posts on this board. I think this is partly due to the share price being in the doldrums, partly about the lack of PI interest in this stock and partly because Blank Frank (one of the main posters on the Board) threw his toys out of the pram rather than agreeing to differ. However, I really think this stock is on the turn and I expect that the AGM will be the start of a steady climb upwards based upon solid progress with Vivo sales.|
|desert_fox: Blank Frank,
Please don't accuse me of being naive I have been around the block a few times and have been a LT holder of this stock since day 1. I was simply trying to point out that it is laughable to think that BigT20 is responsible for the movement in price of this stock. I guess he is responsible for the fall in the share price price since the days of £1.60 then? As Rambutan points out, you are making a fool of yourself.
As a LT holder, I am not in the slightest bit bothered by the current SP, because to anyone who is a believer in the company, it provides an excellent opportunity to average down. I normally find that posters who are extremely defensive of negative posts and sensitive to daily movements in the share price are from the pump and dump stable. Whilst I am sure that you do not wish to be tarred with the same brush, please relax a bit and wait for the news flow.
I still disagree with your views regarding licensing and have done my own extensive research. However, I really don't wish to debate this with you, because in the absence of any further information, it is just one mans view against anothers. I look forward to seeing the response you get when you ask the question at the AGM, assuming that you attend.
The spat between you and BigT20 is absolutely tedious for everyone else. You have both made your points and nothing is going to change between now and the AGM so please let it drop. My view is that this bulletin board could be a lot more active, but many posters are frankly put off by the constant sniping backwards and forwards. I repeat that I believe BigT20 is positive about this company, but has reservations about one aspect of performance, so I think you are attacking the wrong person.
Finally, in the spirit of Christmas and for the sanity of everyone else, can I PLEASE urge you to bury the hatchet with BigT20. I am sure that he would reciprocate.
Blank Frank - 10 Dec'04 - 19:01 - 146 of 146
As regards the share price movement - don't be so nieve Desert Fox ... this isn't a FTSE 100 company. One small sale can easily move the price on AIM, and one person's trading decisions can easily be influenced by what they read on a bulletin board: ergo, one person's posting can affect the share price. So, a spate of negative posting by BigT20 almost immediately followed by DPT share price falls is a coincidence? Don't be so sure.|
|rambutan2: blank frank, these boards are best used for balanced discussion - the pros and the cons. just because someone has some very reasonable doubts about part of the business doesnt mean they are trying to push the price down. and to blame bigt20 for the lack of share price movement is plain silly. i read your posts for their enthusiasm and good pro points which i balance against the likes of bigt20s (and my own) sometimes less than pro points. but thats not to say that i am (fairly) happy to hold onto my stake and hold out high hopes for the future. so, please desist from slinging unfair allegations but please do continue to post your good views of dpt.
|blank frank: BigT20 - 2 Dec'04 - 04:47 - 127 of 130
"It seems that you have an optimistic opinion regarding the poor / non performing licenses . I prefer to look at the facts as they are regarding these licenses ."
Why don't you also look at the facts re.:-
* Regular Estee Lauder licensing income of c. £1M. p.a.
* Successful launch of Elizabeth French's VIVO range, which should mean EF profits of c. £2M. in 2006.
* Launch of new BBW product range, which could double Disperse's licensing income; and new Estee Lauder product launch.
* The imminent Virgin Vie product launches.
You appear to be completely ignoring all the good things that more than justify DPT's share price, and instead are flagging up things that haven't come to fruition yet, but which are not accorded any value by the share price in any case (which means all the more value to potentially be added later).
|blank frank: The 19/11/04 "Investors Chronicle", which tipped DPT as a buy, also contained an interesting article entitled "Exceptional Returns" which is also relevant to DPT.
The IC's research suggests that firms with exceptional losses tend to beat the market:-
" ... investing in shares of the 10 companies with the biggest negative one-off items [relative to their adjusted earnings] would also have made good returns. Overall, this strategy beat the market by an average of 7.5 per cent in the following 12-month period ...
Hanging on to either group of shares for longer produces even better results. [Actually, average of 10.2% total outperformance over 3 years (i.e. not 10.2% p.a.).] ...
The lessons here seem clear enough. While investors focus on the earnings figure and ignore the exceptionals, out findings suggest it would be better to concentrate on the exceptionals and ignore the earnings."
High exceptional costs have reduced DPT's 2004 results. These should not recur, but I don't think that fact is yet being reflected in the share price.
|blank frank: Historic license revenues have clearly stalled over the last few years. But that doesn't necessarily reflect badly upon Disperse's technology: it's my observation that such licence revenue delays in general are the norm, rather than the exception - look at virtually any stockmarket company that licences its technology, and there are typically delays accompanied by a falling share price. Large corporates just can seem to take a long time in their decision-making and development. But I don't think that Shiseido America, Nu Skin, etc. signed those licences just for the fun of it.
Disperse is below a tenth of its Ofex high to reflect the delays, and the current valuation isn't dependent upon any new licence revenue - that's not why the IC tipped it, as there's plenty of upside without that. So if and when new licence revenues do start do come on stream (which they may already have done with new Bath & Body Works product launches), that should be a bonus to the share price.
|blank frank: I.C.: "BEAR POINTS
* Tech licensing business is low-margin"
EDELIN - 14 Jan'03 - 15:11 - 50 of 74
... Chairman quoted he forsees £M15 profit at £M25 turnover. ..."
What the IC means, but has rather misleadingly put, is that DPT's slice (or margin) of the LICENCEE'S revenues is comparatively low. But these licencee revenues that come in to DPT are very HIGH margin for DPT - it may have to do little more than sit back and receive the money. And because the licencees can be such huge companies with sales in the hundreds of millions of dollars +, even a small cut can be quite a lot: i.e. c. £1M. p.a. income to DPT from Estee Lauder. In addition, Disperse is revising its licence agreement with Bath & Body Works: in broad terms, this will give Disperse a four-fold increase in revenues. I believe that this is the plan for other licencees too.
Arguably therefore an IC bull point should be "tech licensing business is HIGH-margin" ... = 3 bull points, no bear points! That would certainly be the view that I would lean to.
Of course, DPT has now broadened its types of income stream to include selling final packaged products to retailers (Elizabeth French products at present), and providing finished products to other companies to package (Virgin Vie initially). These will give DPT a higher share of the final product revenues, but lower average margins on its actual income, though still quite good.
Having said all this, the IC buy tip is clearly fantastic news, as it will help to put DPT onto more radar screens - important, as it's still comparatively little known. DPT's only been on AIM for about four months, and with the flood of AIM floats this year it's easy to get widely overlooked. 'Copycat' tipping may follow in due course, as the IC is so influential ... in previous years Disperse has been tipped on Ofex (at far higher prices) by the Independent and the Telegraph, so they may now see it as legitimate to revisit it. Watch out for DPT nap tips at New Year. [Health tiddler Zi Medical (ZIM) was picked by the Mail on Sunday as a tip for 2004, and the shares immediately went through the roof - DPT looks far superior to ZIM in terms of both results and licensing.] And the IC itself follows its tips, and repeat tips them as appropriate. DPT certainly looks a good bet for this if existing progress is maintained. All of which is clearly good news for the long term, as a healthy share price will make it easier to make an additional acquisition with less dilution - e.g. a cash-'rich' pharmaceutical company, as was suggested at Disperse's 13/7/04 presentation.
P.S. DPT should rise further tomorrow (Monday). IC tips usually do, because lots of people don't see it until Friday evening. And as a recent AIM new issue DPT will be newer to more people ... and, I believe, attractive to lots of people.|
|bigt20: Blank Frank,
You posted : 'The recent Hoodless Brennan research note implied a second half DPT profit of c. £100K. (full year loss £0.4M.), which I believe would be great news. The fact that the note was published after the year end, with no downgrade, is encouraging'
--> Compared to what expectations ? Before the Interims in the 03/04 FY
I thought the expectation was for break even (for the non EF part of
the group)for the full year .
You posted : 'E.g. news on the second oral drug delivery test (results were expected in the summer), and (if successful) news on selling/licensing of that technology? '
---> I now see DPT as a cosmetics group, in that way anything else
is a bonus if it produces any revenues .
You posted : 'The last new licence agreement was way back in March 2003, so we are certainly due another one .'
---> I would like to see some SIGNIFICANT revenues from Shisheido and
Reckitt & Benckiser licenses as i think the revenues to date from
existing licenses has been dismal .
You posted : 'previous such announcements helped Disperse to achieve multi bagger status in the past. '
---> Improving reported financial performance will provide the substance to support a rise in the share price . I think licence announcements alone are no longer sufficient as we have been waiting for significant revenues to be generated from previously announced licenses .|
|blank frank: Tomorrow we enter the 'fifth dimension', as Disperse unveils its fifth set of final results since its 3/00 Ofex float. So, will it be a 'bunch of fives', or will we be 'high fiving' in delight? Just for fun, here are a few 'speculations' for Monday by myself. [DPT's last four LSE announcements have been out of market hours, so the results may well be announced before market opening].
The fact that DPT's share price has edged up to 19.25p ahead of the results is clearly a good sign. In fact, looking at my Disperse Ofex chart, a similar thing has happened before each of the last three sets of finals, and in each case was the start of a swift (i.e. within about a week) jump of about 50% or more. Of course, on the LSE liquidity is greater than on Ofex, so it would take more buying to trigger such a rise; but equally, more people are willing to buy on the LSE than on Ofex, and also tend to buy in larger amounts.
The recent Hoodless Brennan research note implied a second half DPT profit of c. £100K. (full year loss £0.4M.), which I believe would be great news. The fact that the note was published after the year end, with no downgrade, is encouraging. In addition, the interim turnover to 29/2/04 was better than the previous half year turnover to 31/8/03 ((£515K. v. £471K.), despite the weakened US$ in the more recent period; could this mean that new licensing income from product launches was starting to feed in towards the end of the last interim period, with a full second half contribution to follow?
There's also the possibility of a bonus announcement with the results, or shortly afterwards. E.g. news on the second oral drug delivery test (results were expected in the summer), and (if successful) news on selling/licensing of that technology? The last new licence agreement was way back in March 2003, so we are certainly due another one, and previous such announcements helped Disperse to achieve multi bagger status in the past.
Might we also see some more director share buying, but in the market this time, e.g. by the new Finance Director?!
Disperse Tech share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange