Disperse Tech Share Discussion Threads

[desert_fox] 08/1/2005 10:37

Mr Rex,

The news about Neil Morley has been in the (semi) public arena for some time and has was also included in Blank Frank's post 156 above. In my opinion, this is a good move since the original Disperse directors have not made sufficient progress with commercialising the technology. Neil was only the company secretary and has not signalled any intentions to sell his stock. So I would not view this as a negative move at all. The futuire of this company is expanding EF using the original DPT technology as a sort of unique selling point.

It is a shame about the lack of posts on this board. I think this is partly due to the share price being in the doldrums, partly about the lack of PI interest in this stock and partly because Blank Frank (one of the main posters on the Board) threw his toys out of the pram rather than agreeing to differ. However, I really think this stock is on the turn and I expect that the AGM will be the start of a steady climb upwards based upon solid progress with Vivo sales.

[tyranosaurus] 07/1/2005 22:05

Has this board died ?

News today of director resigning and no postings.

[desert_fox] 24/12/2004 19:40

Did anyone else receive the annual report today amongst the Christmas cards?

The most interesting part for me is the segmental analysis on page 17. This shows that revenue earned in the US fell from £920K in 2003 to £818K in 2004. Whilst the weakening of the dollar may have accounted for some of the fall, most of the currency depreciation occurred post year-end. In other words what in the hell is happening to EL revenues. No matter how many products they bring out using DPT technology, the revenues never seem to increase.

On page 1 it states that DPT technology is used (not will be used) in 50 branded products with an annual retail sales value of US$300 Million. Just for a bit of fun, I have very crudely worked out what this means in terms of revenue per unit. With turnover of £1,040K for the Guildford side of the business at say an average 2004 financial year exchange rate of 1.60, equates to a cost of 0.55% per product value. Given that Idealist says for £30 alone this equates to 16.5p per bottle. Does anyone else think that this is reasonable given the production cost savings ATD offers EL?

I looking forward to see how CH will explain the continuing lack of take off for the Guildford business at the AGM. Before anybody attacks me, I have been a holder since day one and will continue to hold for CH's vision of how the EF business will develop, but now hold the view that if Guildford washes its own face, anything else is an unexpected bonus on licensing as the real action is using the technology to develop Warrington.

Any views?

[rambutan2] 20/12/2004 12:59

BF, please dont take umbridge and disappear from this thread. i, and im sure everyone else values your posts.

regards
rambutan

[blank frank] 17/12/2004 18:07

The following is an e-mail response from Disperse (Tony Williams, FD) I received today, and the original e-mail of questions from myself. There were also some short interim e-mails between these two e-mails, in which I indicated that I would post the answers on bulletin boards. [I'm intending that THIS is my last post on this thread, not my 12/12 post as I indicated in that: as I'd previously indicated to Disperse that I would post their answers, I decided that it would be inappropriate not to post them on this the main DPT thread.]


From: Tony Williams
Subject: RE: Disperse's Annual Results 2004 Etc.
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 12:21

Jonathan

In response to your email to Richard Tywdell

1. the £0.8m sales of Vivo product includes sales after 31 August

2. we are seeing new samples of BBW products coming through and we have a meeting with all the new product people within BBW in Jan 05 to discuss future plans.

3. re Pharma the tests appear to have gone very well, but we have a minor issue with stabilization of product within the capsule. Meetings with Monash and Others at the beginning of Dec were held to discuss this matter and there was a good level of confidence that this could be resolved. I believe the next milestone point for this project will be reach by February 05.

I am sorry for the delay in responding to you. Richard Tywdell as you are aware will be leaving Disperse and thus his sole focus at the moment is to conclude the Annual Report 2004 and a few other issues before handing over to me. I expect the document will be with you within the next week (subject to Xmas post), this document will set out the AGM details etc.

Kind regards

Tony Williams


To: [e-mail]
Sent: Wed, 17 Nov 2004 19:14:03
Subject: Fwd: Disperse's Annual Results 2004 Etc.

Dear Richard,

Please could you help me with a few queries I have about Disperse's annual results last Monday (8/11/04):-

"CHAIRMAN'S REPORT
... In respect of Elizabeth French, sales of "VIVO" since the launch in June of this year have exceeded £0.8m, with a strong forward order book and rapidly expanding number of retail outlets both in the UK and overseas. ...
... We also believe that new products using our technology will be launched in the coming 12 months by both Estee Lauder and Bath and Body Works. ...
... For oral and parenteral drug delivery, we work in partnership with Monash University, one of the world's leading drug delivery academic institutions, where further research work is being undertaken, following positive initial results in bio-availability studies against bench mark drugs. We continue to seek partners in this area to jointly develop drug delivery opportunities. ... "

1. Is the £0.8M. of VIVO sales up until the year end (end August), or the statement date (early November)?

2. Have the Bath & Body Works products containing Disperse's technology now been launched? - A new product range is shown on the BBW website.

3. The section of Disperse's Summer 2004 AIM prospectus on pharmaceutical and hygiene products (p. 15 - 16 of prospectus) suggested that the second drug delivery test results would be available this summer:-
"(ii) Pharmaceutical and Hygiene products
... The Group is currently engaged in a development programme in collaboration with Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, an internationally renowned centre for pharmaceutical research. Disperse has funded a research program aimed at establishing proof of principle for oral and parenteral delivery systems in relation to two existing drugs. Proof of principle has been established on delivery of the first drug tested and accordingly testing has begun on delivery of the second drug. The results of this are expected in the summer of 2004.
Subject to proof of principle on delivery of the second drug, the Group's strategy is to seek either to sell outright or license aspects of the technology to branded generic suppliers, specialist drug delivery companies and major pharmaceutical companies engaged in the development of new chemical entities."
When will the second results be available, and will they be announced? [The first results were announced with the interim results in May].

Also, when will the company report be sent out, and when will the AGM be held?

Thank you.

Jonathan Francis.

P.S. With your permission only, I would like to post some/all of your reply onto bulletin boards.

[rambutan2] 16/12/2004 14:56

victory corp results out today...

Current Trading

Sales for the 36 weeks to 12th December 2004 are up 8.5% on the corresponding
period last year, with Cosmetics Direct up 8.3% and Retail like-for-like sales
up 0.9%. Consumer spending in both Direct and Retail has been very tight, in
line with the poor sales performance experienced by many major retailers in the
lead up to Christmas 2004. Within Direct, Consultant recruitment and activity
has been slower than anticipated.

Future Trading Plans

The Board has analysed the reasons for the slow down in sales growth and has
decided to bring forward a number of strategic options that have been under
consideration, and to grow the business through new product development.

We have been developing a major new complimentary product range, Virgin
Jewellery. Due to launch in January 2005, we expect our sophisticated, elegant
and fashionable jewellery range to be an additional major driver of Consultant
recruitment, attracting Consultants who prefer the more straight-forward selling
techniques required for jewellery. The jewellery range will be exclusive to
Direct. We expect the combined sales of Cosmetics and Jewellery to show a
significant increase in the next financial year although some impact on
Cosmetics product sales is anticipated.

We will accelerate the opening of new overseas markets for Cosmetics, and are in
advanced negotiations with a number of potential licensees as well as Joint
Venture partners. The level of interest shown in our business by potential
international licensing partners underpins the belief that we will have an
increasingly important contribution to the growth of the business from this
activity.

I believe with the strategic initiatives we are implementing in 2005, that the
structure of the business is capable of supporting strong growth for a number of
years ahead. As importantly, we have an outstanding range of products and the
creative talent to maintain a competitive edge going forward.

[thatched] 15/12/2004 19:33

Wow, this is just like the offexpress company forums with pjhxxx or whatever he was called and Third Eye providing the real in depth research. Followed by lengthy debate to the death.

Thatched

[blank frank] 12/12/2004 16:52

Desert_Fox - 12 Dec'04 - 09:44 - 150 of 152
"Blank Frank,
Your reply to me illustrates why you have been so successful in killing this thread. I have made my points in a constructive manner and I have no intention of getting sucked in to your silly games. I will not be posting again until matters improve, so please dont bother responding to me again, none is requested."
You weren't posting on this thread anyway, so nothing's changed!
My "silly games" were:
* Asking if you could post some of your "extensive research" on Disperse.
* Providing explicit evidence that bulletin board posts can affect trading decisions.
And as I pointed out the day before, few people were posting much on this thread even before BigT20 and I fell out: BigT20 and I fell out in December; this thread has been going since JULY, with few posters, so it is clearly wrong to blame that.

BigT20,

Of course I haven't disputed the fact that some Disperse licences haven't produced revenues (though the Estee Lauder has, and the BBW one should now be doing so), which is an indisputable fact: my complaint is that you keep hammering away NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEGATIVE the whole time, with NO mention of the many POSITIVES.

And please refer to my 10/12 statement:
"I'm happy to make it clear that it was speculation on my part, and to give BigT20 the benefit of the doubt if he specifically states that he was not bearish about Sportingbet: but in his last post he did not specifically do so."
Do you really expect someone to say that you didn't do something, when you yourself are unwilling to confirm that you didn't do it? The very fact that you won't, as with you attendance at the results presentation, suggests to me that it may be true.

I'M INTENDING THAT THIS IS MY LAST POST ON THIS THREAD (unless I'm obliged to reply to a post addressed to me). It will be interesting to see if the amount of research and analysis increases when I'm gone; although BigT20 and Desert Fox do not have a good track record of sharing, hopefully that can change.

B.F.

[tyranosaurus] 12/12/2004 11:33

BigT20 and Blank Frank

I have now filtered both of you.

[desert_fox] 12/12/2004 09:44

Blank Frank,

Your reply to me illustrates why you have been so successful in killing this thread. I have made my points in a constructive manner and I have no intention of getting sucked in to your silly games. I will not be posting again until matters improve, so please dont bother responding to me again, none is requested.

Best wishes to all LT holders.

[desert_fox] 11/12/2004 10:54

Blank Frank,

Please don't accuse me of being naive – I have been around the block a few times and have been a LT holder of this stock since day 1. I was simply trying to point out that it is laughable to think that BigT20 is responsible for the movement in price of this stock. I guess he is responsible for the fall in the share price price since the days of £1.60 then? As Rambutan points out, you are making a fool of yourself.

As a LT holder, I am not in the slightest bit bothered by the current SP, because to anyone who is a believer in the company, it provides an excellent opportunity to average down. I normally find that posters who are extremely defensive of negative posts and sensitive to daily movements in the share price are from the pump and dump stable. Whilst I am sure that you do not wish to be tarred with the same brush, please relax a bit and wait for the news flow.

I still disagree with your views regarding licensing and have done my own extensive research. However, I really don't wish to debate this with you, because in the absence of any further information, it is just one mans view against anothers. I look forward to seeing the response you get when you ask the question at the AGM, assuming that you attend.

The spat between you and BigT20 is absolutely tedious for everyone else. You have both made your points and nothing is going to change between now and the AGM so please let it drop. My view is that this bulletin board could be a lot more active, but many posters are frankly put off by the constant sniping backwards and forwards. I repeat that I believe BigT20 is positive about this company, but has reservations about one aspect of performance, so I think you are attacking the wrong person.

Finally, in the spirit of Christmas and for the sanity of everyone else, can I PLEASE urge you to bury the hatchet with BigT20. I am sure that he would reciprocate.

_____________________________________________________________________

Blank Frank - 10 Dec'04 - 19:01 - 146 of 146

As regards the share price movement - don't be so nieve Desert Fox ... this isn't a FTSE 100 company. One small sale can easily move the price on AIM, and one person's trading decisions can easily be influenced by what they read on a bulletin board: ergo, one person's posting can affect the share price. So, a spate of negative posting by BigT20 almost immediately followed by DPT share price falls is a coincidence? Don't be so sure.

[rambutan2] 10/12/2004 13:04

blank frank, these boards are best used for balanced discussion - the pros and the cons. just because someone has some very reasonable doubts about part of the business doesnt mean they are trying to push the price down. and to blame bigt20 for the lack of share price movement is plain silly. i read your posts for their enthusiasm and good pro points which i balance against the likes of bigt20s (and my own) sometimes less than pro points. but thats not to say that i am (fairly) happy to hold onto my stake and hold out high hopes for the future. so, please desist from slinging unfair allegations but please do continue to post your good views of dpt.

regards
rambutan

[bigt20] 10/12/2004 11:33

Blank Frank,

You stated : 'You were apparently very bearish about Sportingbet before they went up about six-fold in about a year to date '

--> Please quote the posts or retract. I am not interested in
betting companies so I look forward to seeing these posts .


Just because I have commented about 10% of the business YOU have
assumed that I have a negative view on the rest of the business
and that is not so . Like others I am hoping that EF. will flourish
and provide an outlet for D's technology .

I have not stated or suggested that there is anything wrong with
Disperse's technology . So could you please stop making assumptions
that are not valid . A licence may be poor or non performing for
reasons other than the merits of the technology itself .

As I have suggested before, may be you or somebody else should ask
questions about the licenses under the old business model at the
AGM .


You stated : '......you're not giving no credit whatsoever to
Disperse's very positive sales growth....'

---> Somebody please correct me if I am wrong but I thought announced
(to date)revenues for the Disperse part of the group had stalled ?
However future revenues may improve from this minor part of the group
subject to the US Dollar - Sterling exchange rate .

[tyranosaurus] 09/12/2004 13:41

Interims will be to end of February so I will try to hold on for their publication in April.
I intend to have a big sell off in April anyway as May to August this year was a bad time for my shares.

[bigt20] 09/12/2004 11:33

Blank Frank,

Resorting to smearing etc is the sure sign that the poster
has lost the argument .

Its obvious that you and I have a different view as to
licenses such as Shisheido, Reckitt & Benckiser, Nu Skin
and Nice Pak . So may I suggest that somebody asks the
management about these licenses at the AGM. ?

[mickbaxter] 09/12/2004 00:06

tyranosaurus,

If you can hold for the interims, that will give a solid indication of whether the company is going to make it.

I remain optimistic, but I will re-assess then.

[blank frank] 08/12/2004 20:16

In view of the constant negativity and partiality of BigT20 it's no wonder that investors are gaining a distorted view, and are considering leaving. Please be aware that I have a good idea of the identity of BigT20, which I will keep confidential, but will say that he is a notoriously negative person. The very fact that he apparently went to the results presentation (which he has not denied) and is too selfish &/or lazy to give one word of feedback speaks volumes for his mentality. [In contrast, I posted a very lengthy write-up of the July floatation presentation. ]

The unique thing about DPT (for its valuation) is that it has a lot of jam tomorrow AND plenty of jam today, whereas normally you would have to make a choice.

The important here and now things are:-
* Regular Estee Lauder licensing income of c. £1M. p.a.
* Successful launch of Elizabeth French's VIVO range, which should mean EF profits of c. £2M. in 2006.
* Launch of new BBW product range, which could double Disperse's licensing income; and new Estee Lauder product launch.
* The imminent Virgin Vie product launches.

These things alone should give DPT millions of pounds of profit and good multi-bagger status within two or three years, even if none of the jam tomorrow starts to roll in.

It's rather ironic that DPT would apparently be viewed more positively, and perhaps have a higher valuation, if it only had the here and now stuff, and the other possibilities didn't even exist, so that people couldn't worry about them not happening (soon enough)!

So please don't go!

B.F.

P.S. DPT also owns 10% of K B Innovations Group, which stake alone, even ignoring all DPT's own technologies, could be worth very many times DPT's current capitalisation.

[tyranosaurus] 08/12/2004 18:16

Is this stock worth holding on to or is it a consistent dose of jam tomorrow ?
I`m seriously considering getting out and putting my money into something with a bit more go in it.