Discov. Met Share Discussion Threads

[excellance] 22/9/2011 15:48

today copper is down 7%, silver 9%, oil 5% and gold 4%... a bad day at the office for some... just where this will all end is anybody's guess!

[scottishfield] 08/9/2011 10:07

been good buys for a few days or so nw johnrxx99, so, yes, I guess so.

[johnrxx99] 08/9/2011 09:43

Noticed large buys before market open, always ahead of closing price. Someone is stocking up?

[excellance] 06/9/2011 08:29

sold at 90.6p bought into CEY, no stamp to pay, both trades within my ISA.

i love this company but the share price looks a bit high bearing in mind current global sentiment... i will buy back in later (again)

[frree1] 01/9/2011 11:05

Thks for your efforts chip-glad I stuck with this -hopefully aym will start to follow this uptick

[scottishfield] 31/8/2011 09:55

some v good buying today so far.

[johnrxx99] 31/8/2011 07:07

Suprised how few shares the directors own though. The MD has none.

[p3dr036] 24/8/2011 22:48

Looks good to me. DME just gets better and better!

[chipperfrd] 24/8/2011 02:04

Zeta resource upgrade!

[excellance] 22/8/2011 23:55

copper $395, silver $43, gold and platinum at parity now at $1910, very odd!

[excellance] 19/8/2011 22:41

copper stable at around $400, silver up 5%+, DME partly hedged against commodity fluctuations...

[pregonda] 17/8/2011 22:13

rumours oz minerals to bid. sounds likely

[hamish123] 11/8/2011 15:51

Hey excellance,just to let u know ur still not on your own even after the carnage/recovery/carnage of the last week.DME continues to show quite a bit of strength in comparison to some stocks i watch.I think asking for some market calm would be wishful thinking.

[excellance] 10/8/2011 13:53

Chinese exports beat estimates, US fed to keep rates low for 2 years, is all this bullish for copper at $400?

gold is now $1766, and has overtaken platinum, so is gold over priced or has platinum been forgotten about?

ELR could be a good ISA eligible platinum alternative!

[chipperfrd] 01/8/2011 16:27

I have updated post#1 with my latest summary estimates after allowing for the hedging that was recently announced.

I am sure there will be plenty of changes to be made in the future and I may well have made incorrect assumptions. But what I have posted is the way I see it at the moment.

If there are any comments (+/-) that would help to improve the summary estimates please let me know.
Chip

[shavian] 01/8/2011 07:34

Been watching for a while, thinking I'd missed a good entry below 80p. Looking forward to Chip's analysis of the hedging, while hoping for a retrace!

[excellance] 30/7/2011 14:11

interestng that DME are on a high even though the wider markets are on terrible run and looking over a cliff with no bottom if the US cant get their debt problem sorted...

[raymund] 28/7/2011 21:07

chipperfrd - I was thinking shorter term, long term, should have a bright future and I shall want to be in!

[chipperfrd] 28/7/2011 18:01

orgasmicbeef - best to you too :-)

Raymund - quite possibly in the shorter term. ASX has pushed it up very quickly lately.

[raymund] 28/7/2011 17:49

Came out today to lock in profit to date and suspect there will be a chance to get back in south of here!

[raymund] 28/7/2011 17:49

Came out today to lock in profit to date and suspect there will be a chance to get back in south of here!

[orgasmicbeef] 27/7/2011 16:32

Hi Chip
Trust all good with you.

Yes been here a long time and see the hedge as a loan requirement, fixes copper returns so that Macquarie get there cash back first, safely - as usual - and a big profit [they will job against the hedge when production starts I guess.]

So hedge is part of loan procuration costs in my view. After loan payback, DME will be able to borrow more cheaply and expand with less risk and hedge if they want to. I have a target price that will please me and not too far away.

Best to you

[chipperfrd] 27/7/2011 13:06

I have had a go at building the hedge contracts into my model. I will update post#1 with the summary once I have re-formatted everything for HTML - probably this weekend.

The overall effect is a reduction in volatility from metal prices (+/-) and a smoothing of resulting earnings out to early 2015. However, I would expect that in the intervening period there will be ever-increasing news regarding the prospects for production expansion along the copper belt.

My target ests shift to: CY2012 ~ 204p, CY2013 ~ 297p (AIMHO of course!)
Chip

[chipperfrd] 27/7/2011 10:20

With current metal price trends this hedge contract is likely to favour the banks - but isn't that always the way!

Total forward hedge amount = $420m

Possible cost according to my forward estimates for Cu & Ag is $119m - but will of course depend on actual metal prices on the contract dates.

But does provide security during the early life of the Boseto project.

Project loan should be paid quite early so accumulative cash flow will enable the power station and further processing plants to require less debt and hedging.
Chip

[excellance] 27/7/2011 10:06

nice hedging of 40% copper at $400 and silver at $36, that removes risk significantly even if on the face of it the price is discounted.

it is common for companies to hedge in this way, but with such uncertainty as US and EU debt problems the risk of not paying off debt finance is reduced considerably, so i'm happy with this prudent move.