Devro Share Discussion Threads

[phillis] 26/1/2016 11:48

set for a big push forward in 2016
Demand strong and new production facilities in USA and China
What is not to like?
People have to eat

[ivancampo] 17/12/2015 16:12

Well I've bought more - hope the bounce comes!

[ivancampo] 10/12/2015 16:05

Unloved at the moment testing lower end of trading range, normally bounces from here!

[ivancampo] 17/11/2015 07:11

Solid update, future prospects look good. Hopefully break out of the range in the coming weeks..,,,

[bootycall] 27/10/2015 08:39

Thank you for your comments Woodcutter. I wish you the best of luck.

[woodcutter] 27/10/2015 08:24

Viscofan (VIS) is highly illiquid with just 46m shares tightly held. It's share price has tripled in the last four years so any profit taking on such illiquidity is likely to have a reasonable impact on the share price. Volume yesterday 19380 shares traded.

As always there's journalistic scaremongering. The BBC article while balanced isn't so conclusive on what is/isn't acceptable to consume, even WHO don't know. Why publish a piece on completely inconclusive research. Clearly if you eat 15 burgers and 5 packs of bacon a day then you've a problem, which is obviously not just related to your potential cancer risk. No ones trying to persuade you to invest, i have nothing more to add on the subject.



wc

[bootycall] 27/10/2015 07:25

Nothing went wrong Woodcutter. Great investment. Tobacco stocks have the second highest operating margins ( 41% according to Morgan Stanley) in US packaged consumer goods. They also contain nicotine which means that not everyone found it easy to slightly reduce consumption or switch to a healthier option :) Tobacco stocks historically traded at a discount until all class actions could be dealt with and addressed with product labelling which has dramatically reduced consumption in Western Europe. The big boy in the collagen industry Viscofan fell almost 5% yesterday !
Please bear in mind that children eat sausages. Does Mum want to cook two separate meals for the family? Will schools have them on the menu?....they are a product which should now require some form of labelling as to the risks of eating a group 1 carcinogenic product . As an investor you have all that negative process to look forward to over the next few years. The main investment case left for growth in processed meats, like cigarettes, is that we can sell them to poor people in emerging markets. Sad really....some might say that is wrong...and that might affect the rating. I feel bad for British pig farmers but reducing deaths from the 2nd biggest cancer in the UK must take priority.

[woodcutter] 26/10/2015 20:07

I try not to get involved in discussion on these boards with those who have an opposite view to my own, as it's generally pointless.

I merely post my buy and sell positions and reasoning behind the decision.

However i can see how your theory might have some legs. Below are the 5 year weekly charts for BATS and IMT. It's clearly had a massive impact on both these stocks, i wonder what went wrong!


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


woody

[bootycall] 23/10/2015 18:12

Woodcutter you make some good points. Devro has a great niche and strong market position within that niche. China is obviously a great opportunity to exploit but I have to question whether sales will be helped by medical advice which appears damning about the consumption of cured meats. If the Government is forced to label these products as dangerous, I feel that the forward earnings multiple would be affected....to say the least.

[woodcutter] 23/10/2015 17:10

I have a long term holding and a trading strategy for current consolidation phase. If the market moves against the trade then happy to include that in my longer term holding and then trade the next level of support/resistance.

trade the support and resistance boundaries, never trade within the range.

woody



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[woodcutter] 23/10/2015 16:56

This is a £650m market of which DVO generate revenue of around £235m thats roughly a 36% market share. They're closing all their old operational plants and building modern efficient facilities in the US and China which will come on line in the next 12 months. Their cashflow is exceptional and will comfortably cover interest payments and pay down debt within a reasonable time frame.

imv this is a sleeping giant and whenever it hits support i accumulate. At some point when all the debt is cleared the interest payment costs will all flow to the bottom line and DVO's earnings will grow exponentially.

I hardly think the entire globe is going to stop eating collagen over night, if ever

woody

[bootycall] 23/10/2015 15:17

You are pretty brave

Not sure how this news helps. BWTFDIK

[ivancampo] 23/10/2015 12:51

Added just now - hoping for an update on the 17th continuing recent positive vibe

[woodcutter] 23/10/2015 12:49

added to my holding on the dip, strong support at 275p.

woody

[ivancampo] 07/10/2015 13:18

Some big trades over last week or, looking very solid and ready for a move up soon imo.

[woodcutter] 05/9/2015 10:22

small is beautiful

hxxp://www.masterinvestormagazine.co.uk/latest/the-uk-smaller-companies-funds-that-are-less-susceptible-to-the-global-slowdown/

as i noted firstly identify where the trouble is.

woody

[woodcutter] 03/9/2015 18:40

fwiw i tend to buy stocks with solid balance sheets and invest in them on the trend, buying everytime they bounce off the trend line. I'll pyramid accumulate. When they go range bound, in the consolidation phase, i tend to top slice anywhere between 20% and 30% and patiently trade the range as with DVO. Then wait for the next up trend and add further.It's a strategy that has worked well for many years.

If the cycle moves into a noticeable downtrend and the consolidation range gets broken then i'm out and take all profits, on ocassions i'll do that at the end of the trend if i feel the business looks vulnerable to market cycles.

In times of trouble you need to identify what the trouble is first. At present i've structured my portfolio to be mainly invested in UK earnings companies or undervalued companies where they may have asian earnings. i'm also in very little cyclical stuff as well. It's less about big or small companies more about geographic earnings and value. It just so happens that most large caps are global and with a strong £ and $ they are subject to currency headwinds and therefore uninvestable for me at present.

woody

[woodcutter] 03/9/2015 11:23

buywell my porfolio is made up mainly of small and mid caps and has hardly moved during these troubled times as you put it. indeed most of those stocks that have moved have all come back to where they were, one or two have improved on their previous share price i don't see that with many of the larger cap stocks in the ftse 100. do you?

larger caps ftse 100 it's a nonsense index. miners, oilers, and anything exposed to asian earnings have got hammered. HSBC, PRU, GLEN etc i hope you're not holding any of them. The index is heavily weighted on a dozen stocks or so and when they get hit the whole index gets hit.

20 year history of relative performance for small SMX, mid MCX and large UKX caps index. have a guess which one is UKX and which MCX the red one is SMX by the way.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



if you're not a TA advocate then fine don't knock those of us who use it to good advantage. my returns have always been decent, above the mid and small cap index performance however they've improved immeasurably since i began to use TA seriously. DVO back at resistance now. i suspect most investors could pretty much identify the support and resistance levels on DVO they look well defined to me, 280/300/320.

each to their own

woody

[buywell3] 24/8/2015 14:41

Indeed
"there are none so blind as those who will not see"

But buying bigger cap stocks makes sense in these troubled times doesn't it





Woodcutter - 20 Aug 2015 - 13:38:05 - 2520 of 2522
funny how it's fallen back to support at 300p. Bought back all i sold at 320p.

[woodcutter] 20/8/2015 18:48

An example.

At the end of april 2104 there was a share price drop and a gap down, i suspect some panic selling. The share price/indicator divergence at this time coupled with the candlestick reversal pattern was an extremely strong indicator that the share price would recover quickly, which it did.

i accumulated heavily during this period.

i really shouldn't try to justify the usefulness of it other than to try and enlighten others to it's possibilities, it works for me.

"there are none so blind as those who will not see"


wc

[woodcutter] 20/8/2015 18:38

funny how it's fallen back to support at 300p. Bought back all i sold at 320p.

you'll be surprised how often the charts are useful.

fundamental analysis is fine, i use it all the time, but for entry and exit points charts can be exceptionally accurate.

I have a long term holding here having added on chart signals and top sliced on chart signals too. if you don't use them fine, your loss.

fortuntely i have accumulated a number of years of experience of using charts including significant back testing of my methods and whilst they can't be guarenteed and can never be considered 100% accurate, the way i use them has proven to be very effective more often than not.

like most i was a complete sceptic until a spent time reading and educating myself on their usefulness, it takes time patience and a significant amount of reading to become proficient. most who criticise do so from a position of little knowledge, i know i was once one too.

I can point to many many cases were strong signals like divergence have proven good wealth builders.

it's not about prediction either, it's about probablilities. everything known through FA is depicted in the TA chart.

aimho

woody

[ivancampo] 18/8/2015 09:23

I thought recent weakness was down to exposure to China after devaluation rather than any chart signals - still expecting a new high soonish.

[woodcutter] 14/8/2015 15:35

top sliced at 320p strong resistance and triple top coupled with price indicator divergence, will consider buying back at 300p support.

Nice director buying..........he needs to read charts :-))


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


woody

[ivancampo] 24/6/2015 15:43

Anyone think a bid might be coming?