Develica Share Discussion Threads

[andrbea] 06/1/2010 15:15

profit-taking done I reckon
good retrace from -16 to -11%

I'm in till 0.12, or 0.30 ;-)

nia dyor

[andrbea] 05/1/2010 14:43

last post on iii (dde) board

FWIW


I popped some speculative money into this company this morning at 3.25p (got up late so would have been cheaper, that will teach me) on the basis that if they are still standing and directors are willing to chip in a few quid i would stand by that. I had looked at them before but directors buying 100k of stock is positive.

The portfolio is enormous with £800m euros of assets and big revenues and relatively good tenants in place, albeit a few issues recently but they seem containable. Certainly the recent interims were slightly chirpy, given quite frankly the dire current scenario.

This is about the most leveraged bet on the commercial property market you can get at the moment and is very high risk, given at todays level if all assets were sold off it would not cover the liabilities and LTV is more like 95%, which means hefty interest payments unless they can get this down. This is not one of the stocks trading below NAV.

However being as big as they are and that they can pay current interest I take the view banks will rather tide this over in the hope Germany will pick up steam and then breathe a sigh of relief if values rise. If German commercial prices stabilise and dare we say rise over the next 12 months this stock would look similar to many companies in the UK around February that were staring into the abyss.

This could be a 10 bagger in 18 months or it could be a spectacular flop. Given all my experience with the UK commercial property market this year my odds are on this company riding out the storm and as long as you fully invest with the chance you will lose everything you cant complain.

In the short-term revenue covers mortgage payments but the only thing that will turn this company around is going to be commercial property values rising, lots of sell offs, or some massive fund raising given directors have come in you might think they are planning to stick it out or at least get the stock off the floor.

My bet is that over the next 6-12months they will start to sell down properties they can at the best prices they can achieve and get the debts down. If i dont hear any news on property sales in the next 3 months i might re evaluate as this appears the best strategy out of their hole. often the sale price is more than the valuation so it would be beneficial.

[ihavenoclue] 05/1/2010 12:56

LOL was going to buy in yesterday ... oh well

[andrbea] 05/1/2010 10:45

good posts:
Nos. 65,71,75

worth a punt I reckon.

[shawzie] 31/12/2009 11:31

I remember Puma Brandenburg being taken out by Shore at a considerable discount
and after Puma share price had collapsed. Managers could very well take out DDE with further falls in share price.

[rayrac] 29/12/2009 16:45

Had me thinking when it dropped by 006p, but it's ok as it was 002p at the close.

I think I may have to thank you soon pre!

[pre] 29/12/2009 14:03

good to see you here Rayac...risk/reward ratio looks good here...if they pull it off we should see significant upside:-)

[rayrac] 29/12/2009 13:34

pre, see your ramp on the TRP thread, thought about it and dipped toe for just 50k shares.

I was tempted to buy many more, but directors are not going overboard with their buying imo.

We shall see?

[pre] 29/12/2009 12:02

...coming back....UT snapped up 115K...3 directors buying stock separately....bodes well imo....this stock has been way oversold imo....the rewards for buying at current levels could be significant with the massive upside imo, dyor etc....

[pre] 29/12/2009 11:15

here's the rns including words from chairman:

Director/PDMR Shareholding






TIDMDDE

RNS Number : 6538E
Develica Deutschland Ltd
23 December 2009

?
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

23 December 2009
DEVELICA DEUTSCHLAND LIMITED:
("Develica" or "the Company")
SHARE PURCHASES
Develica, the AIM-listed German property investment company, today announces
that on 22 December 2009, Grant Tromans, a non-executive Director of the
Company, acquired 2,250,500 ordinary shares in the Company of EUR0.01 each
("Ordinary Shares") at EUR0.03 per Ordinary Share for a total consideration of
EUR67,515. As a result of this latest purchase Mr Tromans now owns a total of
10,000,000 Ordinary Shares, equivalent to 4% of the Company's issued share
capital.
The Company also announces that Develica Deutschland Management Limited, the
Company's Manager and a business controlled by Grant Tromans, acquired 1,200,000
Ordinary Shares at EUR0.03 each for a total consideration of EUR36,000 on 22
December 2009. This brings the number of shares owned by the Manager to
32,175,000, equivalent to 12.87% of the Company's issued share capital.
Derek Butler, the Chairman of the Board said these purchases demonstrate the
support of the Directors and Manager to Develica and their belief that the
current share price underestimates both the current value of the Company and its
potential for future growth on a recovery in the German economy.


Ends.
Contact:
Baron Phillips, Baron Phillips Associates. Tel: [phone]
Philip Secrett, Grant Thornton Corporate Finance Tel: [phone]

This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END

RDSBSBDDBBDGGCX

[pre] 29/12/2009 11:06

...well this has bottomed out imo...director buys (x3) last week and chairmns' statement stating co. undervalued makes this mkt cap look very silly indeed...dyor etc:-)

[pre] 13/11/2009 15:57

...when this recovers..we should see some serious momentum drive this up...another bombed out stock ripe for recovery imo.

[pre] 06/11/2009 12:06

cheers for the update shroder....property market recovery in europe already underway...we should see some handsome rewards here imo over the coming months...looks like this is now set for recovery:-))

[shroder] 27/10/2009 08:10

European interest rates on the move, Norway increase tomorrow.

[shroder] 12/10/2009 10:48

Spoke with the company last week at length, nothing specific but overall impression was good.

The general feeling is the property markets have now bottomed with realistic bids/offers making for a two way market once again. Although this may sound odd it didnt exist 6 months ago hence the drastic forced sale valuations applied to some of the trusts.

I mentioned the covenant issue which is taking longer to resolve than anticipated. This is in part down to some of the banks not wishing to pursue the matter actively preferring to take a more relaxed approach waiting for a turn in the market at which point the valuations/covenants can be reversed.

On the interest rate swaps; things are looking more favourable as markets start to address inflation concerns with the likely hood of increased rates at some point - plenty of headroom here with 2/3 years before maturity.

[shroder] 07/10/2009 14:09

LOL, are they reading this bb the mms -

I minute after I posted hit the bid

0.059 0.068 14:07:29 170,033 0|100|0 178,033

[shroder] 07/10/2009 14:06

It's the first day they have stopped bashing the bid so maybe the seller is done or at least wants a higher price -

[shroder] 30/9/2009 10:58

German property starting to get noticed

[shroder] 22/9/2009 09:27

come one, a bit of that mnr trickle down..

[shroder] 21/9/2009 11:11

bit of interest this morning -

[ydderf] 20/9/2009 16:46

very cheap, just takes a twitch in values of the derivative, property capitalisation rates, or a perception that values have stopped falling and it is a five bagger one month later = .06 to 30 cents, can't say that would seem expensive

[shroder] 20/9/2009 14:56

One to keep an eye on, increasing rents in prime locations - strong director buying in '08 at twice the price when things were at their worse.

A tick up in commercial property valuations could set this one off while they sit out the interest rate swaps situation.