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|willib2: Comments from the thread on this deal.
The Directors are pleased to announce that DermaSalve has signed an exclusive
five year agreement with MG Advice.
£3.2m initial order for 2008 (France)
First deliveries will commence in January.
Company not aware of credit crunch and cash supply situation.
Finance director is ok.
The broker tells me, that the big contract for france is the problem. The french people want 90 days credit and drm want 50% upfront.
SO IF PROBLEM WITH CONTRACT, WHY NO RNS AS THIS COULD MATERIALLY AFFECT THE SHARE PRICE.
5 MONTHS LATER COMPANY SUSPENDED FROM AIM MARKET.
From the onset of this contract it has affected production of goods, payment for production of goods, shipment of goods, company finances
No wonder broker changed two days after RNS of contract.
Consequently the new brokers hands would have been tied from day number one.|
|bi1l: He is actually Substp, Bolman - its a little game substp plays. He pretends ( as substp ) to be an uncertain and curious investor so if the share price does well he's a little hero. He introduces the flip side of the coin as Redd, so when problems occur, as with DRM, he can still be a clever little boy trashing all comments from others, including himself as Substp ! Quite pathetic in my opinion, especially when he owns up to not even owning any DRM shares - so whats his agenda you may well ask ?
Ever since he arrived on this bb the intention has been to trash both DRM and any form of comment by anyone. Just a little game to him.
So, sadly its best to stay away and let him get on with it.
Along with all his little aliases he's targeting the SLN bb now - but there we are. There are more of them to put up resistance to individuals such as substp.|
|bi1l: Bit of a pattern emerging here - buyer moves in for shares one day, share price goes up in accordance with demand and lack of supply ( mm's always being short of stock ), buyer backs off next day etc, price then drifts down over a no. of days and then the buyer moves in again for more shares.|
|redd: You will love this, substp! heh heh heh ....... :-)))
Why asset management arms of banks should continue to lend bank shares
Robert Peston of the BBC and Jeremy Warner of the Independent have recently asked why the asset management arms of banks continue to lend bank shares. It is perverse so the argument goes to lend shares at small fees to hedge funds so that they can sell those shares shorts on a massive scale and drive prices downwards, frustrating the plans of those banks to raise new capital through rights issues. It looks a no-brainer. But the argument is nonetheless mistaken. Look at it in three parts:
1. 'Lending shares facilitates short selling by hedge funds that want bank share prices to fall'
That is true but it is very far from the whole truth. In fact, only a fraction of securities borrowing is to cover short sales by investors with a simple directional view that a share price will fall.
Much more commonly, securities are borrowed to cover short positions taken to hedge long positions in a share or a related instrument. For example, dealers will enter into short positions to hedge long positions taken when they buy shares from a client. Their ability to provide liquidity to clients as market makers in this way relies on a well-functioning share borrowing market.
Similarly, short positions are taken to hedge positions in equity derivatives related to share indices. Without a liquid securities borrowing market, traders would be unable to keep the value of the FTSE 100 futures contract in line with the prices of the component shares by arbitraging between them. Liquidity in the futures contract would deteriorate.
Shares are also borrowed for settlement reasons. Without share borrowing, chains of failed trades would be common as market participants were unable to deliver shares themselves because other counterparties had failed to them.
2 'Hedge funds can drive share prices downwards by selling shares short'
Short sellers have no more influence over share prices than any other traders. If selling pressure caused a share price to fall below what other investors judged to be its fair value, they would buy and the share price would correct. Those who argue that short sellers can drive a share price below its fair value need to explain why other investors do not take that buying opportunity. After all, the universe of potential buyers of shares is much larger than that of potential short sellers. Most institutional investors are still constrained to be long only.
More fundamentally, they need to explain why they do not believe the market is efficient and how a share price can move away from fair value for a sustained period of time. Academic theory and common sense suggests that the best way to get a fair price for a share is to allow all market participants, with their varying views, to trade in the shares1. Putting obstacles in the way of those that believe share prices are over-valued will only make prices less efficient. In effect, it removes a class of traders from the market who believe shares are overvalued but do not currently own them. In the long run, all investors will then be worse off because they are more likely to trade at prices that are too high in relation to underlying fundamentals.
Short selling is certainly not a one-way bet. Buyers of shares can only lose the amount of money they invest and they benefit from the long-run bias for share prices to rise as economies grow. By contrast, short sellers face potentially unlimited losses and that bias is against them. Nor is it obvious how the rights issue process creates a one-way opportunity for short sellers. They may benefit if the share price falls below the rights price. But they have no magical powers to keep it there. The rights process does not prevent buying by investors who believe the share price is too low.
3 'Short selling on a massive scale has driven bank share prices lower in order to frustrate rights issues'
The UK settlement system Euroclear UK and Ireland publishes data on outstanding securities lending positions in UK equities. As explained above, far from all securities lending is to facilitate directional short positions. But a massive wave of short selling would be expected to lead to an increase in securities lending. It is interesting therefore to look at the data for lending of shares in the UK banks involved in rights issues (see charts attached2).
- Lending of HBoS shares has been more or less constant at around 6.5-7.0% of market capitalisation since its rights issue was announced on 29 April. That equates to around five times average daily turnover in HBoS shares, which is well below the average level for FTSE 100 shares of around fourteen times.
- Lending of RBS shares actually fell sharply after the announcement of its rights issue on 22 April. It did then rise from around 2% of market capitalisation to 6.5% between mid-May and early June. But, even on the extreme (and almost certainly wrong) assumption that this increase was entirely to facilitate directional short positions, it represents only about 15% of market turnover over the period in which the rise occurred.
- Lending of Bradford and Bingley shares, although much lower in absolute terms (around £75mn) is significantly higher than that of RBS and HBoS shares as a percentage of market capitalisation. Lending did rise after the announcement of the rights issue on 14 May. Again, however, making the same extreme assumption that all stock borrowing was to finance directional short positions, the rise accounted for only about 20% of market turnover over the week in which it happened.
In sum, nothing in the data supports suggestions that falls in bank share prices have been caused by a wave of short selling so large that it has temporarily swamped all other trading and distorted the market.
So what would be the effect of the asset management arm of a bank ceasing to lend bank shares?
On bank share prices: if the supply of shares to the securities lending market was reduced significantly, the immediate effect might be a short squeeze as those traders that had sold the shares short were obliged to close out those positions and buy shares in order to return them to the lenders. But the spike would probably be short-lived as share prices re-adjusted. Over a period of time, the effect on share prices would be, in all likelihood, zero.
On the liquidity of the market for bank shares: if liquidity in the market to borrow shares fell permanently, dealers would be less able to hedge trading positions in those shares or related derivatives. Settlement would also be more risky. Cash and derivatives market liquidity would fall, raising the cost of trading in the shares.
On the earnings of the asset management arm of the bank on behalf of its customers: Those customers are likely to be long-term investors in pensions and savings products. Any short-term spike in bank share prices would be of no value to them. But they would miss out on the revenue from lending the shares. The intrinsic value to lending a share is part of the overall return on that share, along with dividends and capital appreciation. Giving up that revenue would be failing in their fiduciary obligation to their customers.
David Rule Chief Executive International Securities Lending Association 16 June 2008|
|bi1l: Showing your true colours now substp.
Substp = Redd = Wiilib.
Or perhaps you are just a very bitter ex employee ?
Maybe / maybe not - very bitter about something anyway, certainly very unhappy that DRM could possibly do well and succeed. Not happy with that are you ?
Like I said before, your worst nightmare realised - DRM doing well and the share price going up.
Well you may be able to relax a little now as the RNS took the wind out of the upwards move - for the time being anyway. MM's will probably drop the price a bit now to shake out any nervous investors.|
|substp: I believe with Trafalgar being rectified for now it has drawn some interest and we'll never know how many shares the MMs or anybody else for that matter have been stock piling for the last few months . The MMs can hold up to 10% without making a public notification . It's been the selling over the last few months that have brought the share price down to levels that we've been seeing of late . Maybe the nominated broker could clue us in ?????
Again everyone appears to want to ignore the company statement :
"The Directors are not aware of any other specific reason for the increase in the Company's share price."|
|bi1l: All will be revealed soon by the end of the month at a guess !
Next week is going to be interesting - we'll see if the market believes that there statement was the ONLY thing driving the increase in the share price.
And not the unanswered question of a further major deal in the offing ??
And not even, as nurdin mentioned, the keenness of some individual/ party to add to their holding at far higher than the current offer. Perhaps there may even be a bid situation as others also mentioned ??
And my unanswered question about the lack of stock available to buy. Will this situation continue ? On Friday ( from memory ) there were 3M buys and 1M sells, so someone did dream up a few more shares from somewhere. But does that leave the mm's even further strapped and unable to meet the current investor appetite for DRM shares.
All in all its certainly going to be interesting if nothing else. And we are still over two weeks away from the long awaited financial details and hopefully news update!|
|redd: hirschnathan, thanks for clearing that up. It never ceases to amuse and amaze me how some posters concoct outlandish theories then, just as you did, turn them into fact. Incredible!
But on looking at your post again how on earth does this make any sense?
"I imagine the shorter is expecting with a low share price to have to issue more shares to the standin order friend, which would dilute the share price even more.
The hope is that drm have enough cash to pay them directly, without issuing trillions of shares......"
What you say is completely mad but, in any case, why would DRM have to issue more shares and why would DRM require cash for this?
With an imagination like that I hope you are nothing more than a 'shelf stacker'!
You're giving substp a run for his money! lol|
|hirschnathan: Someone has been shorting. We have had millions of shares sold over the last 2 weeks without any announcement ie going below a threshold. I imagine the shorter is expecting with a low share price to have to issue more shares to the standin order friend, which would dilute the share price even more.
The hope is that drm have enough cash to pay them directly, without issuing trillions of shares and then if this scenario is correct and drm post a profit then the shorter will get burnt and the share pric will rise dramaticaly|
Most people who post prob hold shares, different people have different ways of releasing anger at the low share price, some will ramp & some will be negative. The ones that are negative, probally are negative about everything in life, and at least they seem to think that its justified doing it on this board.
Ok back to the shares.
Drm are working on 5 avenues at once
1) H&e, lateste contract win with waitrose, should increase turnover to about £2m next year
2) breathescience, if that takes off as the company wishes it add huge profits to drm.
3) Drm sensitive creams uk, with the promotion by bounty and with hundreds of health workers across the country (by Feb) trained, that could do very well.
4) Drm Asia, we know there where massive advertising done for the creams in thailand and buy January 3000 major shops will be stocking the products (including 80 tesco & 50 boots), as soon as we the stock run, we will be able to see how well its going
5) Safecleanse: in africa, somesort of contrat won, which will work or not.
What it seems the company has expanded very quickly in many areas and even if only one of the lines become succesful, the share price is greatly undervalued.
If all 5 lines work, our share price will be in the pounds not the pennies|
Dermasalve Sciences share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange