Deltex Medical Share Discussion Threads

[djgrantb] 05/9/2016 17:39

February30th, I wouldn't be holding so much of this stock if my research pointed to anything other than a positive set of results and potential for a tie up in the US as we are now gaining traction and appearing on the radar over there. We'll just have to wait till Thu then all will be revealed.

[february 30th] 05/9/2016 17:07

On the other hand, there is plenty of scope for bad news in the results:

1. Further contraction in the UK market.
2. Failure to achieve US targets.
3. A placing or worse.

Yet I do see Andrew Muir's stake building as a positive. He is a specialist in the sector, and even if he is well off, he was put a lot of money into the company for a private individual. It is possible, through his due diligence, that he has realized something we haven't.

[djgrantb] 05/9/2016 17:00

Interim results due on Thu, expect to see quite a few new US accounts & positive news on cash flow/ break even . DM historically hasn't had large trades, and any buy trades at full ask are most welcome. RNS other than results, I suspect will be increase in stake by Andrew Muir. Lidco stock is being sold and not sure yet if investors are switching into DM.

[february 30th] 05/9/2016 16:01

I think you are reading too much into small trades. And what RNS are you anticipating? Or rather, what do you expect to see in H1 results?

[djgrantb] 05/9/2016 09:10

2 nice buys @ full ask, anticipating Rns.

[arf dysg] 31/8/2016 10:22

Certainly the company existed before they were listed on AIM.

[casablanca4] 31/8/2016 00:23

30+ years. Maybe it just feels like 30+
hxxp://www.deltexmedical.com/about-us/history/
3 yrs to go.

[djgrantb] 30/8/2016 16:06

Mia culpa, I've had an interest is deltex industries since its inception, I think DM was incorporated in 2001, nice rise this afternoon, onwards and upwards.

[arf dysg] 30/8/2016 15:53

djgrantb (8331) "I've been in DM for 30+,years"


I'm a bit puzzled at this. I thought they got their listing on AIM in 1999, which was 17 years ago.

[luafc] 29/8/2016 19:20

Feb: Have voted your last post up.

[february 30th] 29/8/2016 19:12

Tbere isn't a correlation with Lidco. However both Deltex and Lidco have suffered from a declining UK market.

The focus of shareholders is cashflow, but it is also the US market. Prior to 2012 the focus was the UK market - now the UK market is declining in importance. If the bulls are right, and the rate of US sales is increasing, and keeps increasing, then the dilutions should start drying up. Of course a take-over would be a better result for shareholders, because while the company is diluting, the share price is going to be stymied.

[luafc] 29/8/2016 18:54

Don't any of you think the key here is cashflow? This company and/or its followers have promised break-even cashflow for well over a decade. Keep buying the professor glasses and correlate with LIDCO and chocolate sales all you like if that's your bag.

[february 30th] 28/8/2016 23:44

So if one discounts correlation and regression, two techniques often used to compare assets and asset classes (correctly or incorrectly), what other methods would you suggest using for mathematically measuring a relationship?

[yump] 27/8/2016 15:50

No correlation doesn't mean they're not related. It just means they're not related in the way the correlation is designed to test.

[djgrantb] 27/8/2016 12:11

February 30th your analysis and comments were appreciated, I've been in DM for 30+,years, and Lidco just popped up on my radar, I hold a few basic resources stock and most of them seem to follow each other, up & down. I agree, I don't see any correlation between DM & Lidco other than the obvious same space & share price falling over the years.

[february 30th] 26/8/2016 18:00

Correlations aren't necessarily designed to make predictions, so you're shooting at straw men. In this case, by looking at correlations, you show that the Deltex and Lidco share prices are unrelated to each other - so correlations are dispelling a myth. Besides, I was trying to answer a question about the relationship between LID and DEMG.

[yump] 26/8/2016 17:55

OMG. Correlations are just correlations. Just as economic models are economic models... and although they look credible because they involve numbers, they didn't predict the Great Recession.

[ramnik007] 26/8/2016 17:10

NHS considering reducing number of beds as part of Sustainability and Transformation strategy - might work if they adopt medical technologies, in particular, NICE proven technology that reduce patient days in hospital after surgery. Perhaps not - just increase waiting times!

[djgrantb] 24/8/2016 04:54

Thanks for your detailed analysis February 30th, I'm not really a chart person, however both shares seem to be floundering and have been on a downward spiral for some years. I still believe DM have a more stable/marketable technology but needs financial backing to market and sell the products in the US. Just because Lidco partnership with Arrow failed it doesn't mean DM couldn't find a partner to move the Co. to the next level, or the technology will be lost to a Pharma predator.

[february 30th] 23/8/2016 23:26

If you look at the share prices of Deltex and Lidco from 2005 through to 2016, there is essentially no correlation:



On the surface there does appear to be a small positive correlation, of 0.3. However when you strip out the impact of autocorrelation, the correlation disappears. So essentially they are unconnected.

The correlation does change from year to year. The two years where you have had negative correlations, with one company's share price falling, and the other rising, are 2009 and 2016, to date:



2009 was when Lidco had its tie-up with Arrow, which arguably saved the company, even though the deal didn't give them a break-through in the US. This deal is used, e.g. by The Count, to demonstrate why partnerships would not necessarily be a good thing for Deltex.

Looking at 2015 to 2016, we get the following:



I suppose both Deltex and Lidco have been hit by reduced NHS spending, and the results of Lidco's disastrous Optimise trial have damaged both companies. I'm reminded of Boris the Dog's remark in "The Lady and the Tramp", in the dog pound: "Is like Gorky says in lower Dapts. Miserable being must find more miserable being. Then is happy".

It seems likely that in the short-term both Deltex and Lidco will follow each other down, and I can't see good news from Lidco helping Deltex. Also, I think Deltex will continue falling without news, probably resting at 4p or lower by results. There is uneasiness about the cash situation, plus a worry that the US account targets may not be reached.

Though hopefully there will be good news from the US soon, and the negative correlation in 2016 can be deepened.

[february 30th] 22/8/2016 23:45

Well, it depends. It's a long time since I did a correlation between LID and DEMG, but overall it depends on what time period you are looking at. Long-term there is a positive correlation, in the sense that they are both going down. However there are periods of negative correlation. For example, 2009 was a great year for the LID share price, a terrible one for DEMG. Generally speaking, good news for Lidco will be bad for Deltex, good news for Deltex will be neutral for Lidco. And the ideal situation for Deltex is for Lidco to be in the middle of its price range, and the ideal situation for Lidco is for Deltex to be at the bottom of its range. However I'll try to redo the statistics, so I can give more support for my statements.

[djgrantb] 22/8/2016 18:48

Sp moves south with no sell trades in sight. Coincidence or not, the Lidco share price loses 4%+ on selling at the very same time. Is there any linkage between these two? any comments.

[djgrantb] 19/8/2016 09:21

Nice to see a few trades- there is life out there, I would hope investors don't make their decisions after what they read on these boards, it's just nice to know other people's perspectives.