Deltex Medical Share Discussion Threads

[arf dysg] 18/8/2016 17:32

Hey, look! Our share price is sub 6p. Surely it has to go up from here?

[arf dysg] 18/8/2016 17:26

February 30th: a well-sorted product would be a sought-after product. :)

[bigt20] 18/8/2016 17:00

I long for the day when the balances re. cash and cash equivalents (please see cashflow statement in the Accounts if you do not understand) go up without a fundraising and/or the working capital being run down.

[february 30th] 17/8/2016 21:07

Anyway, our little blast of negativity will probably push the share price down 5%+ tomorrow, unless there's some news. Just takes one or two new holders, who thought the chart looked promising, to read the thread and throw in the towel.

Still, I think we could be taken over. Weak pound, growing sales in the market that counts. Also, I think a Clinton victory in November will be good for Deltex. It will show that the ACA is here to stay, and will be intensified. Yet with the growing costs of the ACA, CardioQ could become a sought-after product.

[ramnik007] 17/8/2016 20:13

Fiscal Acumen: I guess hindsight is a wonderful thing. Perhaps management should have cut costs harder faster as soon as there was visibility of slowing NHS sales. It appears they waited way too long, and continue to be behind the curve, based on the continuing cash drain. Resulting in continuing dilution and pain for long term shareholders.

[february 30th] 17/8/2016 18:51

Partnerships are unlikely to be an option, and as the Lidco/Arrow tie-up showed, they're often just a band-aid.

As for UK sales, they are becoming less important, as the US and the ROW takes over. Indeed if the company had no track record as a listed company, and had just listed on NASDAQ, with those US sales, it would probably have a market cap. of $200m.

[djgrantb] 17/8/2016 18:44

I feel the company did shareholders and ultimately DM a disservice with the recent dilution for Andrew Muir, but I guess they needed cash to prop the accounts up. If AM had gone to the market and bought 10m+ or 5% I would assume it would have been viewed as positive and the share price might have risen. They cannot just keep printing more shares to pay the bills, they need a partner or ultimately a takeover to invest the sort of money required to do justice to the technology in promoting and selling the product. I've been in this stock for 30+ years and can remember the dizzy height of 27p but it appears currently to been run without fiscal acumen.

[ramnik007] 17/8/2016 18:43

Unfortunately sales have failed to step up, even though positive evidence continues to grow.

[arf dysg] 17/8/2016 17:55

bypooh, that's still exponential, but with one of these choices:

1) negative growth, if you're using a percentage;
2) a factor that's smaller than one, so sales multiply by (say) 0.75 every so often, another name for -25% growth;
3) going backwards in time.

These are different views of the same thing.


Yes, raising money by selling more and more shares at lower and lower prices is bad for previous shareholders. It's like giving new shareholders a good deal while shafting previous shareholders. The company's fine, but the shareholders suffer.

[bypooh] 17/8/2016 17:18

Arf

How does the exponential thing work with declining sales? Like in the UK? Buried in there somewhere?

They seem to have spent all the cash they raised at the first attempt. Probably to pay the bills that had stacked up by year-end. It is hard to say what the actual cash burn is, and Muir may well have been suckered into thinking that they will break even before any new infusion is required.

I very much doubt that. The interims will be out in a few weeks, so it will be apparent how bad the situation is.

To my mind, it is insane to carry on selling greater and greater percentages of the business at lower and lower prices in the hope that the shareholders (whomever they might be at that stage) will gain more when it gets sold or becomes profitable.

[arf dysg] 17/8/2016 16:29

I'd rather see the phrase "strong growth" than "exponential growth".



"exponential growth" has a particular meaning which is no use at all in investing. It's a mathematical definition which includes both "slow" and "fast". One useful definition is that it describes something which doubles in size every so often, on a repeating regular timescale. For example, if sales doubled every year, that would be exponential (as long as there were no wobbles in between).

Another example: sales could double every HUNDRED years. That's still exponential, but useless as an investment.

You don't even need to specify that it doubles. If you don't like the number 2, you can use 3, 4, 10 or anything which takes your fancy. Mathematicians in this context often use e, or approximately 2.71828, so every so often the amount multiplies by 2.71828.

They're all equivalent on their own timescales, so if something multiplies by 2.71828 every year, that's the same as saying that it doubles every 253.17 days (eight months and ten days). So the doubling behaviour is still buried in there, on a different time period.

[ramnik007] 17/8/2016 16:21

Perhaps we may be in for a surprise re exponential growth. Have to dream on!

[february 30th] 17/8/2016 15:34

djgrantb,

The share price has behaved like this for the last decade. And when you see it about to break out, the company doesn't come up with the news, and it falls back. Also, Deltex has fooled a lot of very clever and very knowledgeable investors, and that might include Andrew Muir. So don't be surprised if we're under 4p by next month.

ramnik007,

I think it is an exaggeration to say we need exponential growth from the US. If we got that, without being taken over, we'd be over a quid.

[ramnik007] 17/8/2016 12:36

Whilst news is positive, nothing to indicate cash flow neutral. Important due to many many placings and dilutions.

[djgrantb] 17/8/2016 12:06

Thanks 007, I think the co has definitely shifted its focus away from the UK/NHS. The US in obviously a larger market with unlimited potential, it frustrates me that the share price seems to ignore positive RNS or buying pressure.

[ramnik007] 17/8/2016 11:13

Exponential sales in US, and no more rot in UK sales

[djgrantb] 17/8/2016 10:38

Quite a few small buys over the last 7 days and the share price reaction - zero. Even on positive RNS flow it normally ends the day flat. What will it take to move this stock, anyone any thoughts?

[djgrantb] 16/8/2016 11:52

Think Andrew Muirs stake is a personal Investment rather than a VC stake, he sees, as all true investors see DM is on the cusp on increasing traction in the US which opens the way to a large US Pharma Co. taking it under its wing and spending the necessary investment to move onto the next stage of development. Imho

[february 30th] 16/8/2016 10:13

Cisk,

That is my view too, and as you suggest, there can't be a hidden motive.

[cisk] 16/8/2016 10:03

Feb30th, I think this is an entirely personal investment from Muir, otherwise he would need to declare if it wasn't.

I see it as just a private investment in a company he thinks is a good investment, don't really see a hidden motive there. But of course, could be wrong...

As I've waited 10 years for Deltex to come good, I've been wrong many times before. Now I hold such a small position - just hoping for a 10 bagger, one day!

[arf dysg] 15/8/2016 16:38

Here's the actual information content of that three-page RNS announcement:


RNS Number : 1796H / Deltex Medical Group PLC / 15 August 2016
transaction: 12 August 2016; notified: 15 August 2016

Andrew Muir / GB0059337583
OLD: 13,649,471
NEW: 14,449,471 (5.07)

[djgrantb] 15/8/2016 11:15

Stake building is Andrew Muir, bought another 800,000 shares, holding 5%+

[bigt20] 12/8/2016 20:08

djgrantb 11 Aug'16 - 08:59 - 8295 of 8297 0 0

Started early this morning, hopefully the first buy of many. Interesting over last few days approx 400k sold, 1m+ bought net effect on share price - 25 pips, mms playing games

--> they have excess stock (shares) or you are misunderstanding the trades.



waywardlad 12 Aug'16 - 10:39 - 8297 of 8297 0 0

Some weird transactions going on. Maybe there'll be a clarification announcement soon.


---> depends on who is doing the business and/or whether any reporting % have been breached.

[waywardlad] 12/8/2016 10:39

Some weird transactions going on. Maybe there'll be a clarification announcement soon.