|blimey, that is some come back. we just need this depressing seller out the way. it will happen but it's been a long wait so far.|
|I note that the CPO price has rocketed up to $765 this week:
|Cantor's summary of the update (cheers mate) - they retain a 24p target price, with forecasts of 1.17p EPS this year and 2.27p EPS next year, with "room to upgrade":
"DekelOil (BUY) – Q3 shows a pricing recovery but volumes hit by weather
DLK LN (11.0p, TP 24.0p), Market Cap: £27m
Our view: DekelOil’s Q3 production suffered from drier weather and an earlier start and finish to the peak harvesting season. Pricing showed a strong rebound following a temporary period of weak local pricing and looks even stronger going forward. Overall we remain comfortable with our full year forecasts and reiterate our BUY recommendation and target price of 24.0p.
• Volumes hit by weather and timing – DekelOil’s Q3 production and sales update shows a 13.7% decline in the volume of fresh fruit bunches collected in the quarter compared with the same period a year ago. Q3 is normally the low season and the actual timing of the peak harvesting season has exacerbated the impact. We would normally expect October and November to show a strong rebound and the company reports a pick up in volumes in October. More importantly management says that the company remains on track to reach 2016 full year production targets.
• But pricing recovers – Following the weaker prices seen in H1 there has been a 13% rebound in Q3 compared with the H1 average price. This puts the Q3 price at €612/t. October has continued to see price improvements with pricing now up 26% on H1 to €680/t. Palm kernel oil and cake output continues to grow and also shows better pricing in Q3. The kernal oil extraction rate improved to 42.2% from 41.0%.
• Overall impact is neutral – We have modelled a FY 2016 volume reduction of 2k tonnes compared with the actual Q3 undershoot of 1.5k tonnes. If we merely assume that the Q3 outurn price is the average for Q4 (ignoring the gains in October) then we forecast that better pricing almost exactly offsets the assumed lower volume and would leave our FY 2016 forecast unchanged. Modelling shows that the price impact is slightly more beneficial but not significant enough to upgrade our forecasts at this stage. If October’s pricing is sustained then we see room to upgrade.
• Valuation unchanged - We value DekelOil on a DCF basis with a cost of equity of 15% and cost of debt of 10%. This gives us a target price of 24.0p. The principal risk to our valuation remains volatility in the CPO price."|
|Riv, thx for the above, ''slightly disappointing'' is certainly an under statement.
The company is still on a 2016 p/e of around 6.5 at the current mcap compared to industry peers at around 20. The CPO price has slipped some way over the past few weeks, which obviously doesn't bode well if it stays at current levels.
Overall this is becoming frustrating and the company needs to realise that they need to stop issuing shares to consultants for fees, move quicker on getting a better deal on the balance of their debt re-finance and increase the amount of use of their own fbb.
One good thing is that our man Lincoln does have the courtesy to respond to questioning.|
|Beaufort Securities forecast 1.42p EPS this year, with a 21p price target:
"DekelOil Public Limited (DKL.L, 10.62p) – Buy
DekelOil Public Limited, operator and 85.75% owner of the profitable Ayenouan palm oil project in Côte d'Ivoire, provided update for the 3 months ended 30 September 2016 (Q3 FY2016). During the period, revenue advanced by +9.8% to €6.7m helped by improvement in average Crude Palm Oil ('CPO') price by +0.3% to €612 per tonne (or +13% increase compared to H1 FY2016). CPO production amounted to 5,823 tonnes (Q3 FY2015: 7,301 tonnes) due to shorter peak harvesting season and unseasonally drier weather. Production for Palm Kernel Oil ('PKO') and Palm Kernel Cake ('PKC') stood at 522 tonnes and 666 tonnes, sold at €832 and €49, respectively, compared to nil same period last year. DekelOil's executive director, Lincoln Moore commented "With 34,323 tonnes of CPO produced so far this year, we remain on course to report another record full year performance in terms of CPO production."
Our view: Shorter peak harvesting season and unseasonally drier weather across the West Africa and also in Asia turned out slightly disappointing for DekelOil as its CPO production fell by -20%. The Group, however, offset some of these impact by witnessing surge in price of the CPO by +13% since the interim result, which all together pushed up the revenue by c.+10%. Post the period, the Group said it saw a pick-up in volumes of fresh fruit bunches collected for processing, and therefore reaffirmed its full year production targets. Moreover, CPO prices have further improved in October, now at €680 per tonne, up +26% from H1 FY2016. With capacity to produce 70,000 tonnes of palm oil per annum, there remains room to more than double CPO production should the weather patterns and fresh fruit bunches harvest volumes normalises. Combined with the Group's encouraging sales at kernel crushing plant, ahead of expectation, with extraction rate up to 42.2% and the average sales prices up to €832 (H1 FY2016: €781), DekelOil's profitability is expected to grow going forward. This means the Group will be able to comfortably fund its scheduled debt repayments from operational cashflow, while we expect management to continue to improved debt terms. Importantly, and as previously noted, DekelOil was a Brexit winner with the appreciation of the Euro against the Pound of c.16% post Brexit translating into higher Sterling earnings. Having positioned itself so, Beaufort believes the Group will be able to support its long-term operational ambitions while also producing a sustainable surplus. As these are realised, shareholders can expect to be rewarded by management implementing a formal dividend policy. Beaufort has maintained its full year 2016E revenue and EPS forecasts of €27.5m and 1.42p respectively and retains its Buy recommendation on the shares with a price target of 21p."|
|Cantor reiterate today their Buy and 24p price target:
|Q3 production update today looks good overall to me. On track overall for the year. Lower CPO production in Q3, but "significantly higher CPO prices", good PKO production and improved prices - and October is looking really good for Q4:
|Nice little turnaround today. Let's see if this is just a consolidation phase before another move up.|
|Hopefully, we will here some news on the undernoted soon.
''Discussions are also well advanced to improve the terms of our outstanding development loan with the West African Development Bank ('BOAD') of EUR7.1m which currently has an interest rate of 10.5%.''|
|Cheers empirestate - being a skinflint I've just found a free CPO price chart here which is easy to operate:
|Riv, correction-commodity basis web|
|commodity base website gives you USD Rotterdam, which is the benchmark, unknown to some|
|Does anyone have a link to a site which shows relevant daily palm oil prices please? I've found this for historic trends, but would like something more up to the minute if poss....
|Q3 production numbers due this week. Certainly need that seller out.|
|Cheers Rivaldo, so we should see an update this month then on something. It's about time the weight on the share price is shifted although i do think the seller is probably down to the company settling advisor fees with shares, so there is a constant weight on the share price from the liquidation thereof (may be).
keep em peeled, it's been a long wait but we will have our day here soon imo|
|Cheers for the post rivaldo.Suitably enough taken by the story and prospects to have picked a few up.|
|All agreed Riv....just need the wider market to sit up and take notice|
|Terrific new article today by the Private Punter in the Cambridge News, including an interview with the CEO:
The story here looks increasingly attractive to me.|
|Cantor Fitzgerald say Buy and have a 24p target here compared to Beaufort's 22p:
Cantor are forecasting 1.17p EPS this year and 2.27p EPS next year:
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p)
Cantor Fitzgerald Europe 21-09-16 BUY 3.22 1.17 6.34 2.27|
|Beaufort Securities say Buy, having trimmed this year's forecast to 1.42p EPS.
Presumably next year's forecasts are similar to Cantor's at around 2.27p EPS:
"Our view: Very much delivering on best expectations, with the commodity pricing the only real blot on DekelOil's landscape. And even this has faded somewhat given the improvement in pricing post-period end, as its international markets regained their composure following Nigeria's niara collapse that resulted in the ending of its US$ fix back in June. This meant that DekelOil missed our first half expectations and, as a result, we now have to trim our full year 2016E revenue and EPS forecasts back from €29m to €27.5m and 1.75p to 1.42p respectively. We have, however, left our 2017E and 2018E estimates unchanged in anticipation of activity and returns continuing to build significantly during these years.
With capacity to produce 70,000 tonnes of palm oil per annum, there remains room to more than double CPO production. Combined with the Group's recently commissioned kernel crushing plant, which is already producing value-added products, output is on course to expand substantially going forward.
Significant growth in profitability also means the Group will be able to comfortably fund its scheduled debt repayments from operational cashflow, while we expect management to continue to improved debt terms going forward.
Importantly, and as previously noted, DekelOil was a Brexit winner with the appreciation of the Euro against the Pound of over 10% post Brexit translating into higher Sterling earnings. Having positioned itself so, Beaufort believes the Group will be able to support its long-term operational ambitions while also producing a sustainable surplus. As these are realised, shareholders can expect to be rewarded by management implementing a formal dividend policy. Beaufort retains its Buy recommendation on the shares and places a price target of 21p on the shares."|
|Traditionally Q2 is our strongest quarter but CPO & PKC production declined and PKO only marginally increased on Q1??|
|200k delayed buy just popped through....big boys taking their positions?|
king kong dong
|Good results coverage here:
"Dekeloil Public Ltd (LON:DKL) has revealed record half yearly palm oil production, turning out some 28,550 tonnes of crude palm oil (CPO) in the six months ended June 30.
It marks DekelOil’s first full half year producing with a new kernel crushing plant, and confirms it is operating in line with the strategy to increase sales and profitability at the Ayenouan palm oil operation in Côte d'Ivoire.
Revenue was up 23.6% to €16mln, from €12.9mln, while earnings rose 34.8% to €3.1mln.
That comes from the sale of a total of 25,225 tonnes of CPO in the six month period, and the group had 3,498 tonnes in stock at the end of the half.
DekelOil noted that its stockpile has reduced since the end of June, back to normal levels, as CPO prices have since improved.
The company also highlighted a significant transaction, in its acquisition of an additional 34.75% of its majority owned business, CS DekelOil Siva Limited. The deal effectively saw DekelOil’s stake in Ayenouan rise to 85.75%.
It means that DekelOil will keep a larger proportion of Ayenouan's growing revenue stream and cash flows and, according to the company, it can help accelerate the roll-out of its strategy to build a leading West Africa based palm oil producer.
Coiled spring indeed....gonna explode before long.
Last chance around the 11.5p mark.|
king kong dong