Dee Valley Grp Share Discussion Threads

[redgog] 09/12/2016 01:08

Exbroker

Thanks for the Info regarding the Ancala bid.

I made a decision on selling some of my shares on the market at 1800+ due to being a very risk averse investor ( ever since Northen rock :( )

I get it that some posters think its a done deal/all over, however due to the growing political pressure pushing for a phase 2 CMA, industry regulator unhappiness( cc water etc not OFWAT) and the way the shareholder vote is structured, then I have less confidence in the outcome for the SVT 1825 bid, hence splitting my risk, and taking some profit on the market, not sure this makes me a fully fledged turkey, perhaps more of a chicken.

I do take the point of Ellie15, Ancalas statement seems to indicate that they are willing now to take 51% majority shareholding, this would leave remaining shareholders with their shares and their dividends, also leaving a local firm with a local supply chain.

If you check out the water only bills of both companies as a straight comparison the DVW are substantially lower cost to consumers than SVT are to theirs. How SVT can make the inference that their best practices will lower bills in the DVW area when they are running at such a premium in their existing area of supply is a mystery ( one off head count savings would be the only way)

[molly80] 09/12/2016 00:28

Ancala all the way I say if you want to keep local jobs, local economy and low water bills. Dee Valley Water employees will not only lose majority of jobs if STW take over it will have a knock on affect with the many local suppliers of Dee Valley Water in the area causing even more job losses. I would not trust STW with my shares after reading article dated 26 February 2015 in The Sunday Herald whilst STW CEO was a non-executive director of Tesco's board.

[exbroker] 09/12/2016 00:21

Ancala is an offer so you have to accept it or not, they can buy you in if they get to 90% but there will be no dividend and an even more difficult market for the few shares that are left trading. I know its Christmas but don’t be a turkey!!!

[praipus] 08/12/2016 21:36

Ellie15 re: your#410 where in the Ancala offer/s does it say you can keep the shares and the dividend if you don't vote for their offer?

[ellie15] 08/12/2016 21:12

Employee note
Dee valley water website, select dee valley group in tabs, Severn Trent WAter offer, agree to disclaimer and there is a list of documents.
Strong feelings from employees regards the Severn Trent offer, from my dealings with the Company as a customer, a passionate workforce who excel in service not wanting to lose their identity.

[topvest] 08/12/2016 21:11

Found it...and as expected...

"In summary, we are against the Offer made by Severn Trent Water, and are so concerned that we have raised our objections to the Competition and Markets Authority (“CMA”) explicitly outlining the case for the Offer to be referred to a stage 2 review by the CMA. We note that the Scheme will not proceed if the CMA makes a Phase 2 CMA reference in respect of the Acquisition before the date of the Court Meeting."

How many shares do the employees own, I wonder?

[topvest] 08/12/2016 20:57

Has anyone actually been able to find the employee note posted in the RNS. Buried in the web-site somewhere so the Board obviously don't want anyone to read it. Probably ant-SVT I would guess.

[topvest] 08/12/2016 20:55

Well that's interesting; about 2 accepting and 2 not. On that sort of result Ancala are going to succeed. We would lose some money, but the delight in seeing the Severn Trent empire build strategy losing would provide some compensation!

[exbroker] 08/12/2016 14:35

Greetings all
I am not sure if there is a bit of seasonal madness breaking out on this board but why would you accept the bid at 1706 when you can vote for the SVT one at 1825 or sell in the market?
The price is lower today as there will be no improvement to the SVT offer and the buyers of which I was one have dropped the price, there is a buyer in the market but not a market maker giving 1800 for 35000 at the start of today. I am looking nearer 1790 as I have to pay stamp so my costs are about 12p per share with the comm.
Ancala are not allowed under the takeover rules to just pull their bid so it will remain open until at least the first closing date, 15 December. They can after that lapse it releasing the irrevocables entered into by Axa and Aviva. I am not expecting any problem from the CMA on the SVT bid, the last day to trade DVW after the SVT vote assuming it goes through will be 25 January.
Here is the detailed timetable from the Stock Exchange system, don’t ask!!


Relative Details and Dates:
Please see below for expected timetable: (All times are London times unless otherwise stated. Dates are indicative only.)

- Scheme Circular will be sent to Dee Valley Ordinary Shareholders as soon as practicable and in any event within 28 days as of 16 November 2016, unless otherwise agreed with the Panel.
- The phase 1 clearance from the CMA for the transaction is expected to be achieved within approximately 40 working days from the date of this announcement.
- The revised dates of the Court Meeting and the General Meeting will be announced as soon as practicable and will be not less than 14 days after the date of the announcement. The announcement setting out the dates for the Court Meeting and the General Meeting will also set out the anticipated date for the Scheme Court Hearing, the anticipated Effective Date and the anticipated date of delisting of the Voting Ordinary Shares and the Non-Voting Ordinary Shares in connection with the Revised Ancala Bid.

2017-01-10 Latest time for Scheme Shareholders to lodge blue Forms of Proxy for the Court Meeting in relation to the Scheme (9:30)
2017-01-10 Latest time for Voting Ordinary Shareholders to lodge pink Forms of Proxy for the General Meeting in relation to the Scheme (9:45)
2017-01-10 Scheme Voting Record Time (18:00)
2017-01-12 Court Meeting in relation to the Scheme (9:30)
2017-01-12 General Meeting in relation to the Scheme (9:45)
2017-01-17 Latest time for lodging of green Loan Note Forms of Election and TTE Instructions in respect of the Loan Note Alternative (11:00)
2017-01-18 Scheme Hearing Date to sanction the Scheme
2017-01-18 First closing date of the Contractual Offer (13:00)
2017-01-19 Scheme Record Time (18:00)
2017-01-19 Last day of dealings in, and for registration of transfers of, Ordinary Shares (17:00)
2017-01-25 Cancellation of listings of Ordinary Shares (8:00)
2017-01-25 Effective Date of the Scheme
2017-02-08 Latest date for despatch of cheques or settlement through CREST (as appropriate)

[redgog] 07/12/2016 23:22

Sold some of my shares on the exchanges, If SVT fail in the vote, as is a possibility,the price could well drop. Would look to buy back then.

A question for the more experienced investors.

Why would Ancala not withdraw their offer, why leave it on the table?

[ellie15] 07/12/2016 22:19

Praipus, when SWW acquired BW the WIA and CMA ruling was that if the company had a turn over of 10million then it would be refereed to a CMA level 2, that ruling has since changed, otherwise DVW would be an automatic referral. The fact that it involves a Welsh company at a time when there are significant changes in the not too distant future regards devolution and that there is so much political pressure surrounding this and undoubtedly other factors relating to the potential for a level 2 investigation does throw an element of risk in to the equation in my opinion. If SVT fail then the share price will drop so a missed opportunity to cash in so the question is, take the risk and lose out or take the high price now without risk. As a customer of DVW also, I have stated previously that there is a potential to lose out with the inevitable higher bills from SVT and the fact that I would prefer to keep my water supplier local with local people on employment so a number of reasons. From a shareholder point of view, I believe there is uncertainty and with Ancala revised statement, there is also still the option for the remaining shareholders to continue with dividends so the vote isn't a foregone conclusion imo

[hindsight_speculator] 07/12/2016 22:18

Ancala offer for me as well.

[praipus] 07/12/2016 21:48

ellie15, why?

[praipus] 07/12/2016 21:36

I'm a "No" to Ancala at £17.06, unquoted financial firm not right for anyone, no share ownership, no synergy IMHO

"Why are Ancala keeping the offer open?" Could it be potential £2,000,000 for bamboozling unwary widows, pensioners and vulnerable shareholders out of their investments….perhaps?

No uncertainty based on recent history. Pennon PNN bought Bournemouth Water last year, CMA waved it straight through, there are no grounds to stop SVT (or PNN, UU.).

[ellie15] 07/12/2016 21:28

Yes, Ancala offer for me

[topvest] 07/12/2016 20:08

Ancala have only secured another 5% on top of the original 35% owned by AXA and Aviva. I hadn't noticed that they have changed their offer from a scheme of arrangement to a normal offer. So, they can get it unconditional with another 10%. I bet Severn Trent are panicking. This could be close. The lower bid could actually succeed. One week to find out.

Quick straw poll - is anyone accepting the Ancala offer?

[ellie15] 07/12/2016 19:22

Interesting article from Alliance News regards the current situation following today's announcements, some uncertainty creeping in

[ellie15] 07/12/2016 18:52

WHy are Ancala leaving the bid on the table, is there some uncertainty about SVT coming out on top, they have from the start stated they will withdraw in the event of a phase 2 CMA investigation, a lot of political pressure against SVT acquiring DVW. If SVT fail then the share price drops, those who want to sell will lose the opportunity to cash in on shares. Maybe time to cash in with Ancala and let them take 51%, that leaves those who don't want to sell still able to take dividends. Amazing how people selling shares to Ancala are all vulnerable or pensioners, don't see it myself.

[praipus] 07/12/2016 17:08

Blimey...so Ancala could/will sell 1.6 million ord shares, they bought through misleading(?) shareholders to sell to them at £17.06 (from "vulnerable" shareholders...pensioners etc!) to SVT for £18.25 per share.

Do you realise Ancala stand to make over £2,000,000 from selling YOUR shares to SVT?

[exbroker] 07/12/2016 14:29

All over SVT the winner, just need the CMA to hurry up so we can get our cash or loan noted.

[hindsight_speculator] 07/12/2016 09:15

It's a strange one. Management were making reasssuring noises in the last Annual Report and at the AGM about outperforming the Ofwat targets over this AMP period. Together with the growth in RCV, that would have resulted in a resumption of dividend growth and some capital growth. It may be that the major shareholders, who effectively control the business, were looking for their "pay day". (Axa/Guardian has been a shareholder in Wrexham and Chester for many years). Once the Ancala bid was announced it was tantamount to putting up the "For Sale" sign.

On another point, SVT can afford to pay more than Ancala. Valuing the business on prospective forward earnings at a given multiple, the efficiencies from a SVT bid would always result in a higher valuation.

[ellie15] 07/12/2016 06:22

Share price would no doubt head south if both bids fail but why wouldn't it recover and continue to pay shareholders dividends which have been subject to steady growth over the years? As they've survived for many years on their own, can't see why they would be unable to continue to do so particularly as they already outperform the big players, SVT included in many areas already. Lose / lose for those of us who are DVW customers, no dividends, poor customer service and inflated bills. Would still take the Ancala offer if it came to one of the two as that gives the most surety for me and many others as customers.

[topvest] 06/12/2016 20:59

They will not survive on their own in my view. They are up for sale and so one of the bidders (or another) will succeed. Might just take a while.

[redartbmud] 06/12/2016 20:47

If both bids fail, the share price will head back south, from whence it came.
In the longer term. will it be capable of keeping up with it's bigger peers and the demands of Ofwat?

[topvest] 06/12/2016 20:39

Thinking about it, there has to be a reasonable chance that both bids will fail to get the 75% needed for a scheme of arrangement, which would pave the way for a normal knock-out normal cash takeover bid. Always the problem with a scheme of arrangement!