Dee Valley Grp Share Discussion Threads

[exbroker] 24/11/2016 17:39

Hi Praipus
The testosterone surge has continued I was the buyer today 1815, if the deal is at 1825 I will lose a few pence per share after costs, if we have another round then who knows where it goes. They are in my name so I share your thoughts re CGT but I dont think that you will get anything other than cash, hope I am wrong.

[praipus] 24/11/2016 15:36

Exbroker its your fault for suggesting buying more at the £17.00 level kind of testosterone induced euphoria:)

[praipus] 24/11/2016 15:33

Nearly:) Though the real wish list is not having to sell DVW at all. 150 years of history and growing value gone in a moment of greed.

If the bids all lapsed or failed due to Ofwat or something the share price would probably be painful short term but better for long term DVW private share holders. They wouldnt lose those RPI linked returns and asset growth while all around negiotiate Brexit and the EU tries to avoid collapsing in its current form. Just thoughts.

Swapping DVW for SVT shares is more desirable than cash IMHO.

[exbroker] 24/11/2016 15:25

Praipus
Can I have some of what you are on please!!!

[redartbmud] 24/11/2016 14:24

Praipus

Is that your wish list?

[praipus] 24/11/2016 13:43

All quiet, SVT just discussing how many SVT shares to exchange for DVW's hopefully.

Ancala checking the loose change and the Piggy Bank one more time.

UU. pondering how they could utilise the Dee Valley land bank for development or otherwise and if they should go shares, cash or loan notes...ready to sweep all other offers aside.

[topvest] 24/11/2016 08:13

Yet another recommendation from the Board. Ball back in Ancala's court!

[topvest] 24/11/2016 08:13

Yet another recommendation from the Board. Ball back in Ancala court!

[redartbmud] 23/11/2016 21:18

Ay Ay that's yer lot! Over and out.

[praipus] 23/11/2016 20:57

Will UU. Step up?

[topvest] 23/11/2016 20:36

This is getting fun! Will Ancala come back again?

[praipus] 23/11/2016 20:24

Another revised offer £18.25/£17.13 :)

But still no mention of loan notes or dissenters register another f..ing compulsory scheme!

Please can some one who honestly understands the meaning of the word stakeholders (which does include share holders) step forward and make a realistic offer with a loan note or practical method of mitigating CGT for long term loyal shareholders who actually don't really want to sell their shares.

Rothschild I'm sure helped with some of the other water only takeovers now they seem to be letting SVT down IMHO.

[exbroker] 23/11/2016 15:37

From FTSE the indexc provider, 4,138,902 ors
493,268 A non voters
Red the Chelverton stake was over 4% that may be where the maths goes wrong

[praipus] 23/11/2016 14:20

Unreliable memory: When Chester and Wrexham water companies mergred to form Dee Valley some insurance companies had holdings in both. The merger meant they would have over the legal maximum therefore meaning they would have to bid for the company. I think they were given a dispensation at the time. Suspect the transfer is to do with that and holdings are accurate see Note 13 on the first of the two Holdings RNS prior Ancala's first attempt.



Ok i think you should use 1,454,407 from 2015 accounts, RNS is perhaps retrospective.

[praipus] 23/11/2016 12:09

Realise i've been using ADVFN's 4.7m in issue for the non voting actually its 493,268!

So unless ive made a few more mistakes its even cheaper than I thought!

[redartbmud] 23/11/2016 12:02

Praipus
That includes non-voting that you can discount for this exercise.
I might be out by 100 voting shares then, which is nothing in the overall picture.

[praipus] 23/11/2016 11:41

I dunno... 4,138,902 ords in the same document:)

[praipus] 23/11/2016 11:35

Ordinary shares in issue during the year of 4,632,170 (2015: 4,632,170).

From the annual report March 2016.

[redartbmud] 23/11/2016 10:49

Sorry for being a pain.
Am I now right:

Total Voting shares - 4138802

Chelverton was 184500 = 1.46% now owned by Arcela.
Aviva - 397969 = 9.62% ( This was from Axa 3 Oct 16
Axa - was 1368848 (from accounts) less Sale to Aviva 397969 = 970079 = 23.44%

It does make a difference to control, although it doesn't agree to 39.6% that Arcela claim in their original document.

[redartbmud] 23/11/2016 09:56

I know where you are coming from.

My numbers may be wrong on holdings.
Ancela claim that they have 39.6% of the shares through Axa, Aviva and Chelverton, but the RNS dated 5 October confirm the numbers I have quoted above.
Something doesn't stack up there.

[praipus] 23/11/2016 09:38

Please dont think Dee Valley is expensive Red....Exbroker mentioned £20 I said £29 per share even including Debt the buyer will be getting a bargain.

For comparison, the cost of obtaining new business sales in any sector is massive with huge failure rates.

DVW is 266,000 customers and a regulated RPI income for life...oh and assets about £120m which you are encouraged to keep up to date.

This is England's jewel and its far too cheap.

[redartbmud] 23/11/2016 09:24

Hi Exbroker

You may well be right.
It will not sit well on Liv's CV if she loses this one.

Chelverton's undertaking was irrevocable, and they sold out to Ancela. They must now be satisfied with the offer on the table.
Holding those shares can only strengthen their position and, if Svt outbids them, they will pick up the profit to help cover their costs.

Going back over the documents:
Axa could accept a bid at least 10%+ the original Ancela bid. 5.0% of shares
Aviva, the clause is 15%+. 9.62% of shares

I still wonder if those letters lapsed when Svt outbid the clause trigger, as the Ancela bid lapsed by default of a higher offer.

Svt could make it uncomfortable for Ancela and the sum total of the Axa, Aviva and Chelverton holdings would not be an insurmountable barrier to their success.
It seems very unlikely that they would bid £19.62, the Aviva trigger, just to save face, so any counter offer could work somewhere lower than that.

It will be interesting to see the end result.

red

[exbroker] 23/11/2016 08:48

Hi redartbmud
The details of the irrevocables are in the first announcement from Ancala, not SVT`s fault but they may bid at the higher level either to buy the company or to make it very expensive for Ancala and they would be the obvious buyer if it ran into financial trouble in a few years. SVT are the lowest cost player here so can pay the highest price.

[exbroker] 23/11/2016 08:17

Big buyers at 1707 and smaller one at 1710, happy days!!