Debt Free Direct Share Discussion Threads

[sat69] 30/8/2007 18:45

A close below 260p would have been a bearish signal. Luckily we managed to stay above.

At least we now have a provisional date for when the share buyback will commence (12 October 07). You have about 6 weeks to reverse your short position Simon, else your profits will erode very quickly!

[sat69] 22/8/2007 22:50

Another flatish day. We must clear 290p for a strong upward chart move. Maybe the start of the share buyback is what will do it.

[sat69] 21/8/2007 20:19

Down a penny today to 280p, in very small volume. Can't expect a rise every day! :-)

[sat69] 20/8/2007 21:48

Closed up 2.4% at 281p. The expected rise continues.

[sat69] 18/8/2007 19:19

My reading of the charts is four consecutive higher highs and 3 consecutive higher lows. We are firmly on an upward trend.

[nobel2005] 18/8/2007 15:08

JonC your analysis on the numbers is correct,but the premium paid is because the potential size of this market is huge.It's an enormously immature market as well,and also DFD is considered a blue chip in comparision to it's peers.Sadly I hold ACG,which I'm pretty sure will come good.Good luck to dfd holders.

[jonc] 18/8/2007 12:28

Nope.

JC

[sat69] 18/8/2007 12:13

Cheers Jon, I take it you have no position?

[jonc] 18/8/2007 12:11

I hope it works out for you sat.

JC

[sat69] 18/8/2007 11:43

Jon, Thankfully, Hanover don't share your view and picked up a few mill last week at around 290p!

There is an article in todays FT reporting their increased shareholding to 18% of the company. It goes on to say that Hanover has an excellent record of working with public companies, helping them to implement profit-enhancing strategies and deliver significant growth.

Diogenes, I love your 'game on' example Hanover -v- Cawkie! Just to amend it slightly if I may, as DFD are soon to start their share buyback programme of 4.5 mill shares, it should read...

Hanover + DFD -v- Cawkie

Further, I don't believe Hanover will stop at 18%, and will be looking to add, possibly as early as next week. I know which side I'd rather be on.

sat

[diogenesj] 18/8/2007 11:39

Well, as Daniel Stewart said earlier this month, I suppose that "the only reason to buy is if you believe (as we do) that competition will ease, the cost of acquisitions will fall, and creditors will be supportive under the new regime."

[jonc] 18/8/2007 11:19

These are massively over valued.

Consider that as an accountant I can expand my practice by purchasing fees at between 1 and 1.4 times gross recurring fee income. Why should an IVA comapny (which is in reality a an insolvency practice) be valued at 4 times turnover.

You can say it is a growing market buy there is phenomenal competition in this market. Als there is growing uncertainty with regard to the way the banks are not approving IVAs.

I have no doubt that given time this will trade below 80p.

[diogenesj] 18/8/2007 11:12

It's certainly a very interesting development, Sat, and should put a floor under the share price. Hanover v. Cawkie: I wonder which has deeper pockets and which has done more thorough research. :-)

[sat69] 17/8/2007 22:44

Diogenes,

Hanover picked up another 1.3 mill shares this week, increasing their holding from 15% to 18%. They also are aware that DFD are about to buyback 4.5 mill shares in the coming weeks.

The share price slipped back earlier on the week, along with the general turmoil in the markets, but that was quickly put right today. We are back on track to shoot past £3 next week, and I'm glad to be a holder!

sat

[diogenesj] 17/8/2007 11:52

Must say I am absolutely amazed at that piece of news. However, Hanover have a very good record and clearly they must see some value here.

[sat69] 17/8/2007 07:14

RNS Number:2963C
Debt Free Direct Group PLC
17 August 2007

DEBT FREE DIRECT GROUP PLC

HANOVER SHAREHOLDING AND PROPOSED APPOINTMENT OF NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

Debt Free Direct Group (DFD), the leading debt advice and solutions company, is
pleased to confirm that Hanover Investors (Hanover) is now a significant
shareholder with a stake of 18%.

[sat69] 15/8/2007 22:04

Bagged my 3p divi today - though cost me a further 13p to get it! Ah well, tomorrows another day...

[sat69] 14/8/2007 18:28

LOL Don! - Those are clearly buys at 291p/292p, but alas, my pockets are not that deep! The amazing thing is that it may well be the case that it is not the company doing their share buyback, as the total they were going to buyback was only 4.5 mill, whereas the total traded today comes to over 7 mill shares. Is somebody stakebuilding? I'm expecting an rns release either tomorrow or Thursday - that should clear up who is behind the two massive buys.

Simon, the buying is probably ahead of the generous 3p divi (which you will be paying and I will be receiving tomorrow!) and also short sellers closing their positions ahead of the share buyback of 4.5 million shares, which is still to take place. Not forgetting that the selling has clearly been overdone, so punters are simply buying into a company at a very cheap price!

I expect you are still sitting on a tidy profit and you can still afford to keep your short position open. That profit is slowly being eroded away, and I truly believe will become a loss unless you close your position quickly. Mind you, I don't expect an experienced investor like your goodself to take my advise. However, I do promise I will not say 'I told you so' when I'm proved right in the very near future!

sat

[simon cawkwell] 14/8/2007 17:48

Sat69,

Since you enquire, I have not closed my DFD shorts. I do not know why the shares have risen - unless punters think the sub-prime crisis is to spill over into the UK and IVA's are greatly demanded.

Certainly, I think my original argument stands: DFD's variable (and fixed) overheads are too high for the business it will do.

Simon Cawkwell

[don777] 14/8/2007 17:45

Sat69,
did you not disclose to me and buy these?
15:56 291.93p 3,604,000 £10,521,265 Buy O
15:44 292.00p 3,589,000 £10,479,880 Buy O

:)

[sat69] 10/8/2007 22:24

Still managed to close higher amongst all the turmoil. Now up to 290p. Easily smash pass £3 next week, and you can pocket a 3p divi in the process.

Haven't heard from Mr. Cawkwell for a while. You closed your shorts yet Simon? :-)

[sat69] 09/8/2007 16:41

Another great day - up 10p at 286p. There's no stopping the upside now till we hit £3.

[sat69] 08/8/2007 17:04

Still nudging higher - closed at 276p. A close above 280p will lead to a breakout. We're nearly there!

[sat69] 07/8/2007 23:07

And I'll be getting a nice divi next week....Is that why short sellers are closing their positions?

RNS Number:6437B
Debt Free Direct Group PLC
07 August 2007

DEBT FREE DIRECT GROUP PLC
DIVIDEND DECLARATION

Further to the resolutions passed at the Company's AGM on 3 August 2007 in
respect of the payment of a final dividend of 3p per share, the Company is
pleased to announce the dividend will be paid on 7 September 2007 to all those
on the Company's register at the close of business on 17 August 2007. The
shares will trade ex-dividend from 15 August 2007.

[sat69] 07/8/2007 22:59

Closed at 273p - a six week high, and the 4.5 mill share buybacks have not even started! The £3 level is now looking easily achievable.