Dawson Share Discussion Threads

[dazzaa] 05/6/2011 14:53

Judging by the way the price is moving and the speed of it (though that's the way the the market works)I would give a shilling to know the thoughts of the board,they've been through hell and back and yet had, have an appetite to grow the rump along with a core of shareholders who, believe,believed in them through the years so let them get on with it and decide! but not too long.

[dazzaa] 05/6/2011 14:53

Judging by the way the price is moving and the speed of it (though that's the way the the market works)I would give a shilling to know the thoughts of the board,they've been through hell and back and yet had, have an appetite to grow the rump along with a core of shareholders who, believe,believed in them through the years so let them get on with it and decide! but not too long.

[markt] 04/6/2011 20:17

"ALways need to leave something in for the next man"

That phrase imho scores 0 out of 10 !!
.....take all the gain imho !

[cockneyrebel] 04/6/2011 17:50

You can't buy experience puntersez.

They don't all go that well, in fact I can't ever remember selling a stock and buying it back at 3% of what I sold it for as I did here:-)

When I first started I bought BSLA @ 4p, sold within a week or so at 6p - it went on to £6 :-( Perhaps had I had more experience then I'd have held on. Just bought them back funnily enough at around 12p so perhaps with experience I'll get it right this time :-)

CR

[puntersez] 04/6/2011 17:23

CR - out of curiousity as I noticed you'd started the thread at near the high of the last ten years and expected to see a tale of pain and suffering, I started looking through the history and quickly found this (only post #29):

" 16 Feb'05 - 20:47 - 29 of 1174

I'm out actually, sold the past couple of days. I said £2 looked a decent target and no point in waiting for a round number, especially in a weak market imo.

Cheaper and more attractive buys elsewhere at this price now - up 20% since the thread started, including the divi - that's enough from this type of business imo.

CR"

You must have been pleased with that in hindsight, given what happened (assuming you didnt try to get back in). Shows me that market experience is invaluable, ie just being round long enough to know lots of companies and having a feel for the right price to sell, which is surely harder that the entry decision.

[erniemadoff] 04/6/2011 16:50

Cheers Dazzaa, but I tip my hat to CR and all his contributions on the Message Board. Agreed, no matter what happens, this board will work in the interests of the shareholders - of that, I am convinced.

Ernie.

[cockneyrebel] 03/6/2011 22:17

Agree.

CR

[erniemadoff] 03/6/2011 22:15

CR, as usual great analysis.

Yes, the decision on the bid is firmly with the DWN board and its key stakeholders, they do not need to sell with such a hard earned bright future ahead. It is so rare that a company can make a comeback after such a devastating demise and with the same MD! I am pleased that their hard work is beginning to be recognised. This board are not stupid, they know that they are onto something good with Ebooks and their fantastic infrastructure. The other 2 companies can also go far with the right strategy.

Ernie.

[cockneyrebel] 03/6/2011 21:22

Cheers Ernie.

Schwartz column in in the paper too.

I'd be disappointed with a 20p take out. 2p eps looks easlly possible this year - the year end is September. The fwd PE is what matters and these are eminently capable of 2.5p eps for the year starting Oct 1st. At 20p a share the PE would be 8 and eps growing at at least 25%, possibly much faster if e-books division really takes off. So come Sep the PE for the current year may be just 8 at 20p a share - that would be no premium at all.

I also think DWN won't sell out on the cheap - the pension has a big interest in the co and they aren't going to want to give their stake up on the cheap.

Thirdly, all of the staff have a big interest in DWN doing well as it's a big part of their pension - that's why DWN has been doing well imo, they are like performace related in a time when many people are seeing their pensions slashed - a good pension is a big part of peoples' peace of mind if you have one these days imo.

CR.

[mreasygoing] 03/6/2011 21:10

I really hope a take over doesn't materialise, this has real growth ability and can recover to be a much better company than it was previously. Any bid below 20p on current valuations is getting DWN on the cheap !

[qs9] 03/6/2011 21:00

ALways need to leave something in for the next man, so IMO any takeover will be around 20p which is a shed load higher than a few months ago, so win-win to all....even from today's price....let's see. Failing that, as CR points out, over time, this should if management continue to deliver, trend much higher...

[davydoo] 03/6/2011 20:54

Great find, thanks. Does anyone know if its just an online column? or is it likely to be in the paper aswell this weekend?

[erniemadoff] 03/6/2011 20:32

Hi CR,

Your analysis is bang on, I believe that DWN are worth at least 25p, takeover or not, imo.

Ernie.

Ps. We have all waited a long time for this :-)

[bigbigdave] 03/6/2011 20:28

Great stuff, cheers protean.

[cockneyrebel] 03/6/2011 20:19

Cheers above - Schwartz has a lot of followers - I bought back into SIXH today on the hope he re-tipped them soon having come off 20% since he sold, just cos they are going to AIM.

Even happier that he's tipping DWN here :-)

PS - his 1.7p earnings estimate for this year looks way too low imo having done 0.8p in H1 but I guess he cannot look like he's too gung-ho.

Menzies ratio is 11 but a take out on them would be at a PE more like 15 - he needs to apply that ration imo. And they don't have E-Books division.

CR

[abc125] 03/6/2011 19:10

The contingent liability went down from £5.3m to £3.7m - that would have profit which would have dropped straight onto the bottom line.

[davydoo] 03/6/2011 18:01

Amazing volume again today, especially considering it looks like Schroders have stopped selling. 644k on LSE and 574k on PLUS (although still cant see the details) thats over 1.5% of the ordinary shares traded today, and when you consider the only other recent holding announcements have been adding to positions, then either theres a lot of short term trading going on, or we're building a new base of holders who are going to want to hold on here at least until bid talks are finalised/dropped.

I thought the comments between markt and sportbilly about ebooks earlier today were very interesting, it just shows the current market cap doesnt even cover the value of the ebooks business, let alone two other protifable businesses.

[cockneyrebel] 03/6/2011 17:37

The really interesting thing I think is the growth in eps from last year.

From continuing ops they have done £39m sales in each of the last 3 half years. In H1 and H2 last year that produced just 0.1p eps. This year the same sales are producing 0.8p eps.

They say this:

""Each of our profitable and cash generative businesses is now operating from a stronger platform and the momentum evident in the first six months of the year has continued for the first six weeks of the second half and produced satisfactory sales, margins and cash generation. Consequently, despite the continuing economic uncertainty, the Board is encouraged by recent trading and, should the company continue to trade at current levels, expects a strong performance in the second half of the year."

What would be a strong performance in the second half? If sales are up compared to being flat in recent periods and from the way the co speak then it doesn't sound as if they regard H1 as having been strong so I'm expecting a fair bit better than 0.8p eps in H2. I'd have thought 2p for the year doesn't look at all a tough task. If they do 2p for the year that will be 1.2p eps in H2 which in turn suggests 2.5p eps next year wouldn't be a tough ask.

All speculation at this point but 13p eps doesn't factor in eps of 2p this year alone imo.

These look like having annual sales of £80m this year and a market cap of £9m at the moment. 2p eps would be operating margins of around 3%. Every 1% the grow those margins, even without sales growth, adds around 0.7p to the eps. Operating margins have grown from near zero around 3% this year so there's momentum for it imo.

Just a few things to think about there. Also it's the Ebooks whee the growth is and that's where the margins are too.

CR

[markt] 03/6/2011 17:19

abc125
Thanks for the info above.

"Did techinvest tip DWN?"
I don't know. Anyone know ?

I note that it was the Special Situations fund of Malborough/Techinvest that bought recently

got 1.15M shares in DWN now.

...if they include it in any issues of Techinvest then it is very good for widening the awareness of the Dawson shares which as a micro-cap is probably unknown to many people. ... the 25k pounds of shares they recently bt....good timing , up over 20% on that buy in short time..since 26th May

====

Anyone understand the UT etc letters for the trade of 100k shares this afternoon ?
After that trade it was just a stream of buyers....
last buy at 12.9p !!.

[cockneyrebel] 03/6/2011 16:39

Well for whatever reason Schroders seem to have stopped selling or have sold imo.

Youve been able to buy hundreds of thousands of these recently and now you can't get 25k online - I can't remember when these last couldn't be traded online in at least 50k.

Nice breakout through the 2009 highs today to:

[abc125] 03/6/2011 16:30

markt - 3 Jun'11 - 14:55 - 1147 of 1155


What is the contingent liability of 3.7M for ?..(down from 5.6M in 2010).and is likely to be needed...or could it be wiped out

Anyone know ?

I am interested since 3.7M is approx. 50% of the cap. value of Dawson...
so it is significant item...

The £3.7m is the payments due to the liquidators of the legacy busineses, which can be spread out over time depending on profitability. The balanace is coming down nicely.


Did techinvest tip DWN?

[bigbigdave] 03/6/2011 16:19

Big finish coming?