|Dawnay Day Carpathian
||ORD SHS 1P
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Dawnay Day (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|hectorp: This is my weekend post which covers a few of the shares .
I am 'reasonably' invested in DDC, averaged down to around 58p. having added considerably at 39p.
Depending also on the reaction of US markets to their recent rally , in the coming week. It would be essential for our company, and lets face it any company we hold! to be able to brush off falls in the large cap index of the US for example. The DOW and SP500 are very fragile here.
In DDC's case, this is very interesting: because a fair percentage of DDC's recent falls have been related entirely to internal events related to DD. Also to a series of RNS relating to directors selling for neccesary reasons. We know, that Eastern European markets are holding up very well, or, relatively better than the US and UK retail markets. The UK and US are down as two of of the worst places for current investing in property and France and Scandinavia the best. Spain also should be avoided. DDC has NO exposure to failing economy nations.
Should DDC hold this 45-50p level for some trading days and the US has fallen, then I'd feel very confident to 'pile in'. I view the portfolio of DDC as likely to be surprisingly ( to some) robust over the coming months, and hopefully a disposal could do wonders for the NAV to present share price ratio .
At the moment I suppose I am 70% cash and bonds and only hold several £K of DDC, and also a bit more on my new purchase, Dolphin which is running at 70% discount to perceived NAV. * Note that Greek properties are said to be falling in NAV by 2%/quarter. Perhaps this is similar to some parts of DDC's folio? I don't know as yet.
I've again dumped out of RUS, simply due to the reversal by their Advisors into RUS for no advantage to RUS shareholders. I would only buy RUS 15% cheaper.
|hectorp: DDC getting good press overall, the Investor's chronicle focussing on DDC rather than the other ex DD entities. on about 17% yield now. As it is based on the assets' rental income and appreciation and not on the share price, its clear the share price is what is out of kilter.
|nickcduk: I don't think DDC is in any financial difficulties as a result of Dawnay Day problems. The worst that can come out of it is that banks take a tougher line on lending to DDC as a result of Dawnay Days reputation being hit. They might tighten covenant terms and jack up margin a little. I think DDC as an independent entity can withstand those pressures. That doesn't mean the share price won't get hit hard though. I think Dawnay Day have been forced sellers in the market for a few days at least. The only reason we found out they were selling DTR stock was because they are undertaking a strategic review and had to report their selling within 24 hours. I am sure we will find that they will be reporting further reductions in their holdings in both DTR and their other property vehicles over the coming days and weeks. The problem they now face is the more they sell the lower the share prices fall. That then leads to further margin calls and more selling and an even lower share price. I will be watching with interest how it unfolds and ready to pick up stock on any sharp spikes lower.|
|david77: I agree with Kimboy2 #1743. Dawney Day (the company) and Dawney Day Carpathian are separate entities. I knew that Peter Klimpt had a pretty massive holding as CfDs. I took that to be a reflection of his confidence in DDC - but it seems that he can get it wrong along with the rest of us. I bt a few DDC shares on Friday Morning - down 10% by the end of the day :-(.
Dawney Day's and Peter Klimpt's problems are their problems - not DDC's. DDC's share price may fall further as he tries to place his shares - someone will get a bargain - not me, I'm afraid 'cos I already spent all my cash but I would be a buyer otherwise.|
|ydderf: the point usually overlooked in situations like this is
1. Whatever the fundamental value may or may not be, who will buy the shares from here on? Without buyers and only sellers the share price will collapse and this will precicipate the end of the company because no party it does business with including banks will have any confidence in its continuance if the share price is suggesting failure. Does anyone know the bank borrowing covenants governing the market cap of the company for example - they usually exist?
2. Given what has happened to the larger group - why would anyone have confidance that the connected businesses have been run conservatively and soundly?
3. Right or wrong - isn't it better to simply sell. There will no way of knowing for many anxious months possibly, what the best and worst outcomes might be - nobody knows, so why bother?|
|erstwhile2: To the chap I called out on the correlation between the (i) the Dawnay stake in F&C placed by Landsbanki and (ii) DDC price move, then I take it all back.
After some more research, Dawnay Day look to me like a stricken conglomerate breaking up, and they of course own a lot (20% ish I think) of DDC. I can't even begin to think what might happen if they are minded/required to dispose of their DDC stake.
I had completely forgotten that Dawnay, the manager, also owned this 20% stake. So I was approximately 100% wrong to have a pop.|
thank you for your clear explanation above. I know about covenants, however I needed confirmation that your original quote was that there was sufficient slack or leeway, and its 36% as suggested ( at current valuations etc etc,)
I think we HAVE attracted attention of the short side, or an institution offloading in small AT trades.. though I can't prove that .
Its possibly irrelevant anyhow. A shorting day artificialy deflates the share price, not the assets, unless the assets . A short market appearing will increase our volatility. A larger 'bounce' than usual should at some point ensue.
If there is shorting-related weakness of a 10% share price fall, its not marycurer /Papal-power or whoever else, as they don't have the clout to affect the share price of this stock.
- I rest me case.
|hectorp: With the share price at 49p an 8p dividend is a yield of about 16%.
The market is assuming the dividend should be halved to 4-5p or so, ( ie 8-9% yield) or, the properties of the company on average, should have a resale value approximately 20-30% below current company based valuation
- I propose that this is quite ludicrous but equally, so is the share price.
There is a general view, eg just to mention the 'Scotland on Sunday's' Bill Jamieson today, an excellent traditional long term chap, 75% of the credit crunch is still to hit ( ie a further $$ trillion in writedowns) leading to a halving of world Bank valuations. Are we at DDC immune?
Well how far does the dead hand of credit issues get into our company's dynamic?|
|hectorp: Yes the gross redemption yield will be a very important figure in a couple of years time.
Romanian / other /new bid' It think cannot constitute more than 30?% of DDC's developments. Even so, in 2 years the Romanian developments IF LET etc should raise DDC's overall share price by approximately 20% from todays price, ignoring any revaluation on the various Malls , if still let at good yields, in Hungary etc.
- But even at todays yield, DDC are still a little risky. when considered share price wise, for the return expected. Instead we want to 'expect' at least 10-15% INCREASE in cap over each if the next two years. When shall it begin to appear?
We should consider however that: a falling Euro interest rate which could reduce the company's ongoing debt repayments on properties purchased , by say, 1% this year and 1% next, is highly significant.
|gunter guil: p0lzeath, just looking at the chart for that. seems to have been quite a turnaround.
As we preesntly stand with currencies its significantly cheaper to purchase retail assets in in Central/Eastern Europe via purchasing DDC shares than it would be to directly purchase the asset. The DDC share price has dropped at the exact time these currencies has appreciated making this even more pronounced.|
Dawnay Day Carpathian share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange