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DDC Dawnay Day

37.75
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 01:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Dawnay Day LSE:DDC London Ordinary Share GB00B0B66533 ORD SHS 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 37.75 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 37.75 GBX

Dawnay Day Carpathian (DDC) Latest News

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Dawnay Day Carpathian (DDC) Discussions and Chat

Dawnay Day Carpathian Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
16/2/200910:07Dawnay, Day Carpathian plc2,122

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Dawnay Day Carpathian (DDC) Most Recent Trades

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Dawnay Day Carpathian (DDC) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 16/8/2008 09:13 by grahamg8
Aleman you are correct that lower growth in Europe will eventually lead to falling interest rates which makes DDC debt cheaper to finance. There is another positive which is that pricing of commercial property is based on rental yield. The yield required by investors is linked to the cost of finance, so lower interest rates mean lower rental yield espectations, and when you have an existing rental stream that can only mean NAV must rise. Eventually the share price rises to match the NAV. The downside is of course that lower economic activity leads to void periods and existing tenants seeking lower rents. But cash is still flowing East and this possibility seems unlikely. The current share price represents fear which in time will abate.
Posted at 26/7/2008 13:18 by hectorp
This is my weekend post which covers a few of the shares .

I am 'reasonably' invested in DDC, averaged down to around 58p. having added considerably at 39p.
Depending also on the reaction of US markets to their recent rally , in the coming week. It would be essential for our company, and lets face it any company we hold! to be able to brush off falls in the large cap index of the US for example. The DOW and SP500 are very fragile here.
In DDC's case, this is very interesting: because a fair percentage of DDC's recent falls have been related entirely to internal events related to DD. Also to a series of RNS relating to directors selling for neccesary reasons. We know, that Eastern European markets are holding up very well, or, relatively better than the US and UK retail markets. The UK and US are down as two of of the worst places for current investing in property and France and Scandinavia the best. Spain also should be avoided. DDC has NO exposure to failing economy nations.
Should DDC hold this 45-50p level for some trading days and the US has fallen, then I'd feel very confident to 'pile in'. I view the portfolio of DDC as likely to be surprisingly ( to some) robust over the coming months, and hopefully a disposal could do wonders for the NAV to present share price ratio .
At the moment I suppose I am 70% cash and bonds and only hold several £K of DDC, and also a bit more on my new purchase, Dolphin which is running at 70% discount to perceived NAV. * Note that Greek properties are said to be falling in NAV by 2%/quarter. Perhaps this is similar to some parts of DDC's folio? I don't know as yet.
I've again dumped out of RUS, simply due to the reversal by their Advisors into RUS for no advantage to RUS shareholders. I would only buy RUS 15% cheaper.
regds
all
H>
Posted at 20/7/2008 13:44 by hectorp
DDC getting good press overall, the Investor's chronicle focussing on DDC rather than the other ex DD entities. on about 17% yield now. As it is based on the assets' rental income and appreciation and not on the share price, its clear the share price is what is out of kilter.
H.
Posted at 15/7/2008 12:41 by marben100
Aleman - FYI I have left a message with DDC re some queries I have concerning yesterday's announcement. When I get a response, I will put the "realisation" issue to them.

I imagine they're kinda busy right now so am not expecting a rapid response but I will chase if I don't hear anything within a few days.


crawford - per my meeting last week they did indicate a) that they were working on some realisations; b) that there was an active market for properties with a value up to €50m. They appeared confident but obviously we'll have to wait for an RNS to see whether that confidence is justified.

Obviously it suits any vulture funds for DDC's share price to be as low as possible, so they might bide their time... or if DD Group are forced sellers, they might already be soaking up their shares - again at the lowest possible price.
Posted at 13/7/2008 22:32 by nickcduk
I don't think DDC is in any financial difficulties as a result of Dawnay Day problems. The worst that can come out of it is that banks take a tougher line on lending to DDC as a result of Dawnay Days reputation being hit. They might tighten covenant terms and jack up margin a little. I think DDC as an independent entity can withstand those pressures. That doesn't mean the share price won't get hit hard though. I think Dawnay Day have been forced sellers in the market for a few days at least. The only reason we found out they were selling DTR stock was because they are undertaking a strategic review and had to report their selling within 24 hours. I am sure we will find that they will be reporting further reductions in their holdings in both DTR and their other property vehicles over the coming days and weeks. The problem they now face is the more they sell the lower the share prices fall. That then leads to further margin calls and more selling and an even lower share price. I will be watching with interest how it unfolds and ready to pick up stock on any sharp spikes lower.
Posted at 13/7/2008 20:20 by david77
I agree with Kimboy2 #1743. Dawney Day (the company) and Dawney Day Carpathian are separate entities. I knew that Peter Klimpt had a pretty massive holding as CfDs. I took that to be a reflection of his confidence in DDC - but it seems that he can get it wrong along with the rest of us. I bt a few DDC shares on Friday Morning - down 10% by the end of the day :-(.

Dawney Day's and Peter Klimpt's problems are their problems - not DDC's. DDC's share price may fall further as he tries to place his shares - someone will get a bargain - not me, I'm afraid 'cos I already spent all my cash but I would be a buyer otherwise.
Posted at 13/7/2008 19:48 by ydderf
the point usually overlooked in situations like this is

1. Whatever the fundamental value may or may not be, who will buy the shares from here on? Without buyers and only sellers the share price will collapse and this will precicipate the end of the company because no party it does business with including banks will have any confidence in its continuance if the share price is suggesting failure. Does anyone know the bank borrowing covenants governing the market cap of the company for example - they usually exist?

2. Given what has happened to the larger group - why would anyone have confidance that the connected businesses have been run conservatively and soundly?

3. Right or wrong - isn't it better to simply sell. There will no way of knowing for many anxious months possibly, what the best and worst outcomes might be - nobody knows, so why bother?
Posted at 10/7/2008 14:50 by hectorp
Mark
thank you for your clear explanation above. I know about covenants, however I needed confirmation that your original quote was that there was sufficient slack or leeway, and its 36% as suggested ( at current valuations etc etc,)

General comment:
I think we HAVE attracted attention of the short side, or an institution offloading in small AT trades.. though I can't prove that .
Its possibly irrelevant anyhow. A shorting day artificialy deflates the share price, not the assets, unless the assets . A short market appearing will increase our volatility. A larger 'bounce' than usual should at some point ensue.
If there is shorting-related weakness of a 10% share price fall, its not marycurer /Papal-power or whoever else, as they don't have the clout to affect the share price of this stock.
- I rest me case.
H.
Posted at 10/7/2008 11:47 by marben100
Morning all,

Sorry for the delay (been busy with various things). Here are my notes from Tuesday's meeting (I expect to do a fuller writeup/analysis in due course):


- DDC's investors are split 60:40, institutional:retail

- Rent roll this year expected to be £33.5m net rental income (as per annual report). Good progress being made in filling some voids in previously purchased properties. In combination with index-linked rent rises, net rental income expected to be higher in 2009 than in 2008 (barring minor disposals which DDC is expecting to make this year). Current leasing was described as "moderate to good".

- Portfolio comprises a mix of out of town/suburban properties and town centre ones. However, smaller scale of towns in CEE (& hence relatively short distances) means that fuel costs are not a major deterrent to custom. There is a focus on "convenience" shopping which should aid robustness in a downturn.

- There is some liquidity in the CEE property market and properties are currently selling on yields ITRO 6%. It is easier to market properties with a value up to €50m, where loans are available, even under current "crunch" conditions. V hard to obtain larger loans. [I note recent Segro office transaction in Warsaw].

- Dividends: DDC's objective is to pay out all available cash as dividends. 6-7p of this year's dividend is expected to arise from rental income and the balance from gains on asset realisations.

- I enquired about equity & debt budget for development in 2008. DDC not prepared to answer that, however we learned that work is about to begin on two of the Romanian developments, with the rest to begin in 2009.

- Ongoing development projects will be valued based on cost incurred at the year end.

- Covenants on loans: on average, covenants stipulate 110% net rental cover over interest (current average 150%) & LTV of 75-80% (62% at end 2007 per annual report). Lenders much more concerned about the first of these covenants than the second.

- Share buybacks are not practical under Isle of Man law.

- In response to our suggestion, DDC responded that the Board will shortly consider a switch to Euros as presentation currency (which should make performance easier to analyse in the accounts and remove the need for some currency adjustments).

- DDC will try to make analyst reports available to investors.

- Directors cannot currently buy shares due to "insider trading" rules.

- Carried interest is only payable on property realisations and subject to the conditions specified in the admission document.

Cheers,

Mark
Posted at 06/7/2008 19:07 by hectorp
With the share price at 49p an 8p dividend is a yield of about 16%.
The market is assuming the dividend should be halved to 4-5p or so, ( ie 8-9% yield) or, the properties of the company on average, should have a resale value approximately 20-30% below current company based valuation
- I propose that this is quite ludicrous but equally, so is the share price.

There is a general view, eg just to mention the 'Scotland on Sunday's' Bill Jamieson today, an excellent traditional long term chap, 75% of the credit crunch is still to hit ( ie a further $$ trillion in writedowns) leading to a halving of world Bank valuations. Are we at DDC immune?
Well how far does the dead hand of credit issues get into our company's dynamic?
Dawnay Day Carpathian share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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