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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dawnay Day | DDC | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 37.75 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37.75 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 26/8/2008 17:33 by fugwit Good find Jonwig, much appreciated. Tricky times for DDC, no doubt more investors will be deciding to cut their losses this week with that news. This has some potential to be a turning point however. I am keen to see how mgmt cope with news flow going forward, the rents achieved on any releasings, and any clarification of the dividend position. If they don't make a mess of the first, the second shows a comparable rate against the original interfrruct leases then I am sure a number of peoples mind will be put at rest. As for divis, time will tell. I shall be watching DDC more closely now, maybe a few more are in order. As you say H, a couple of limit orders might be a goer here. |
Posted at 09/8/2008 12:45 by hectorp Investors chronic yesterday comments on the problems associated with geared commercial property cos in Europe. I am not sure how this relates to DDC etc. Apart from that, I-Chron was bullish of DDC a fortnight ago. Our companies ie DDC and DCI are currently 'marking time' or, consolidating. - Trichet said yesterday that the Euro zone will have a weak third quarter ( hence the tumbling Euro .USD). How do regulars view these current events in relationship to DDC's investments. H. |
Posted at 26/7/2008 13:18 by hectorp This is my weekend post which covers a few of the shares . I am 'reasonably' invested in DDC, averaged down to around 58p. having added considerably at 39p. Depending also on the reaction of US markets to their recent rally , in the coming week. It would be essential for our company, and lets face it any company we hold! to be able to brush off falls in the large cap index of the US for example. The DOW and SP500 are very fragile here. In DDC's case, this is very interesting: because a fair percentage of DDC's recent falls have been related entirely to internal events related to DD. Also to a series of RNS relating to directors selling for neccesary reasons. We know, that Eastern European markets are holding up very well, or, relatively better than the US and UK retail markets. The UK and US are down as two of of the worst places for current investing in property and France and Scandinavia the best. Spain also should be avoided. DDC has NO exposure to failing economy nations. Should DDC hold this 45-50p level for some trading days and the US has fallen, then I'd feel very confident to 'pile in'. I view the portfolio of DDC as likely to be surprisingly ( to some) robust over the coming months, and hopefully a disposal could do wonders for the NAV to present share price ratio . At the moment I suppose I am 70% cash and bonds and only hold several £K of DDC, and also a bit more on my new purchase, Dolphin which is running at 70% discount to perceived NAV. * Note that Greek properties are said to be falling in NAV by 2%/quarter. Perhaps this is similar to some parts of DDC's folio? I don't know as yet. I've again dumped out of RUS, simply due to the reversal by their Advisors into RUS for no advantage to RUS shareholders. I would only buy RUS 15% cheaper. regds all H> |
Posted at 16/7/2008 16:24 by hectorp marben.. this is rather decent news. Many thanks. Note how relatively few shares were involved here. PS Mr Klimt still holds shares in DDC which will be his own, and not related to DD.. ? I believe. DDC has responded today rallying over 16%. That is a darn good start to the coming year's yield and cap growth profile. In general, with crude down considerably over two sessions, this could trigger the summer relief rally into which one has to consider DDC's situation positively. Noted in the I-C that Value shares are at their lowest relative to growth shares for 27 years. Is DDC a Value+growth, or a value share. I suspect its a hybrid in that respect. But it is certainly to an extent value based which could be the key reason for the fall from over 110p. |
Posted at 13/7/2008 20:20 by david77 I agree with Kimboy2 #1743. Dawney Day (the company) and Dawney Day Carpathian are separate entities. I knew that Peter Klimpt had a pretty massive holding as CfDs. I took that to be a reflection of his confidence in DDC - but it seems that he can get it wrong along with the rest of us. I bt a few DDC shares on Friday Morning - down 10% by the end of the day :-(.Dawney Day's and Peter Klimpt's problems are their problems - not DDC's. DDC's share price may fall further as he tries to place his shares - someone will get a bargain - not me, I'm afraid 'cos I already spent all my cash but I would be a buyer otherwise. |
Posted at 10/7/2008 13:29 by marben100 hectorp,Re covenants: covenants are what must be met for DDC to stay out of trouble with its lenders. Each property has a specific loan (mortgage) against it. For any given property (on average), the first covenant means that net rental income must be > 110% of the loan interest - or the banks can call in the loan. With a current interest cover of 150% that means that rental income would have to fall by 150/110 - 1 = 36% on average before DDC found themselves in trouble. Seems like a reasonable margin of safety to me, even in current conditions. LTV is loan to value i.e. ratio of loan to property valuation, so an LTV covenant of 75% means that the loan on a property mustn't be more that 75% of the property's latest valuation. The first (income) covenant is easier to check/validate as rental income is fact - valuations are opinion. Worth also bearing in mind that DDC does have a cash cushion (£60m as at end 2007) so if there were a danger of a breach on any one specific property, DDC could choose to renegotiate and reduce the loan. Not that it appears that any such event is likely. HTH, Mark |
Posted at 10/7/2008 11:47 by marben100 Morning all,Sorry for the delay (been busy with various things). Here are my notes from Tuesday's meeting (I expect to do a fuller writeup/analysis in due course): - DDC's investors are split 60:40, institutional:retail - Rent roll this year expected to be £33.5m net rental income (as per annual report). Good progress being made in filling some voids in previously purchased properties. In combination with index-linked rent rises, net rental income expected to be higher in 2009 than in 2008 (barring minor disposals which DDC is expecting to make this year). Current leasing was described as "moderate to good". - Portfolio comprises a mix of out of town/suburban properties and town centre ones. However, smaller scale of towns in CEE (& hence relatively short distances) means that fuel costs are not a major deterrent to custom. There is a focus on "convenience" shopping which should aid robustness in a downturn. - There is some liquidity in the CEE property market and properties are currently selling on yields ITRO 6%. It is easier to market properties with a value up to 50m, where loans are available, even under current "crunch" conditions. V hard to obtain larger loans. [I note recent Segro office transaction in Warsaw]. - Dividends: DDC's objective is to pay out all available cash as dividends. 6-7p of this year's dividend is expected to arise from rental income and the balance from gains on asset realisations. - I enquired about equity & debt budget for development in 2008. DDC not prepared to answer that, however we learned that work is about to begin on two of the Romanian developments, with the rest to begin in 2009. - Ongoing development projects will be valued based on cost incurred at the year end. - Covenants on loans: on average, covenants stipulate 110% net rental cover over interest (current average 150%) & LTV of 75-80% (62% at end 2007 per annual report). Lenders much more concerned about the first of these covenants than the second. - Share buybacks are not practical under Isle of Man law. - In response to our suggestion, DDC responded that the Board will shortly consider a switch to Euros as presentation currency (which should make performance easier to analyse in the accounts and remove the need for some currency adjustments). - DDC will try to make analyst reports available to investors. - Directors cannot currently buy shares due to "insider trading" rules. - Carried interest is only payable on property realisations and subject to the conditions specified in the admission document. Cheers, Mark |
Posted at 06/7/2008 20:27 by aleman erstwhile2 - 6 Jul'08 - 19:28 - 1614 of 1615This company doesnt make money so dividend payment is illusory... Net rental and related income £24.3m Financial income £7.4m Rent and financial income this year should be more like £35m+ as more cash has been invested in property and the Euro is up against the £ from the year end accounts. Are you suggesting this surplus cashflow of £15m+ and rising is imaginary and can't pay the dividend? The company said it expects this years dividend to be covered by rent and value realisations anyway. It is planning disposals. 2/3rds of DDC's assets are in Hungary and Poland. Both currencies are up 10% against the Euro in the last 4 months. It will be interesting to see how they revalue properties if rents are set in Euros but rents in the local currencies are rising when translated into Euros. |
Posted at 27/6/2008 11:29 by aleman in truth property value is linked firmly to the price and availability of credit - period!Not quite. It is availability of cash, borrowed or saved. As capital values fall, recycling rent yields becomes more important. Granted they have cut the dividend 20%, but the company's cash is going further than before. It is a trend that is happening with my shares generally. They have fallen in value by 1/3rd but I am receiving dividends at record levels to reinvest in shares that are extemely cheap. I expect a few dividend cuts but overall I am benefitting from being able to buy more shares than last year because of the reduced prices. The same goes for pensions and unit and investment trusts up and down the country, which are reportedly sat on record amount of cash. They will get more bang for their buck when they eventually invest it and they can't sit on it forever. Studies have shown that stockmarkets have gone nowhere for the last century discounted for inflation as measured by gold and certain commodities, but the total return is unbeatable as an asset class thanks to reinvested dividends. Buying future dividend streams hasn't been as cheap for a long time. With regard to DDC, if the rents keep going up to support the dividend, the capital value can do whatever it wants. I'll reinvest the dividend wherever it buys the best future stream of income, which does not preclude buying more DDC. You get 60% more if you reinvest the dividend now than 12 months ago. |
Posted at 24/6/2008 16:43 by aleman That's the one. It is a very schizophrenic piece arguing it both ways. Some extracts :..total returns for commercial property fell by 17% in the period [12 months] up to April this year, reflecting a fall in capital values of 24%... Current share prices indicate another fall of about 26% according to Credit Suiss on top of the 18% since last June. Shares appear to discount an "almost Armageddon" scenario. Chief executives are almost incredulous on how the market values their companies. Hammersmith's John Richards says it is almost impossible to imagine a scenario where his company's inherent value will fall as low as its market price. Mr Sumner, for one, believes the sector has never been as cheap, while the dividend income remains attractive. For some, it seems, certain parts of the market are priced low enough to make them attractive, but the risk-averse will remain wary. So UK-listed property shares are cheap as a group if you think their commercial property is going to fall less than another 26%. I'm just pointing out that share prices are ahead of the game and so may not have much further to fall. For property itself to fall another 30%+ after already falling 18% seems a bit severe. An article at the side is about London and Stamford who raised £1bn (inc. debt) for opportunistic property acquisitions but has yet to make a move since its November Launch. (I wouldn't expect to see it buy DDC but buying a few shares might give them something to tell shareholders until a proper acquisition comes.) FT-SE Property Index not bottomed yet: It's worth observing index support at current 2900 and then 2700 since DDC is so low there is no previous trades at this level to work off. Comparing the two may account for some of DDC support lately as it has got ahead of the index fall. You would think it would be slightly behind given the stronger EE economies, higher yields and higher forecast rent growth. DDC for comparison |
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