Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Dart Group LSE:DTG London Ordinary Share GB00B1722W11 ORD 1.25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -2.00p -0.39% 516.00p 516.00p 517.00p 518.50p 514.00p 514.00p 54,095 12:21:46
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Travel & Leisure 1,729.3 90.1 51.8 10.0 764.90

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DateSubject
25/9/2017
09:20
Dart Group Daily Update: Dart Group is listed in the Travel & Leisure sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker DTG. The last closing price for Dart Group was 518p.
Dart Group has a 4 week average price of 493.50p and a 12 week average price of 484.75p.
The 1 year high share price is 665p while the 1 year low share price is currently 354.50p.
There are currently 148,236,684 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 349,371 shares. The market capitalisation of Dart Group is £766,383,656.28.
30/8/2017
07:28
castleford tiger: Thanks for that - no doubt your analysis of DTG has paid off in spades for you historically. You have been a major beneficiary having timed your entry perfectly in the low teens 10 years back. I agree that this was luck but the business model was always one that I supported being the first to go at it on line without the costs of high street shops. You do realise though the company could have gone bust in 2008 (hypothetical scenario would be had governments stopped short of bailing out banks) in which case your stake would have vaporised and your classic value play turned to dust. Well that would of meant a total collapse of the UK PLC not just DART who to be fair had no debt even at this stage. So in this sense you have also been lucky (necessary for all of us in life as well as in this game I hear you say). Point being 9 out of 10 companies collapsing 90% in price or more have historically gone bust (lots of literature on the subject - keyword "value trap": most stuff on the cheap is so for a good reason). Buffett refers to it as the cigar butt approach. There are outside factors that can cause this without the business being in danger of going under. One is panic in the market and a classic sell off ignoring the true value of a business. You have happened to pick up the one that has been a success. Kudos. Had I retained my 2.7% of DART that I held through to today......the stake would have been over 20 m gross but of course I took chunks out at double/treble etc. Future could be very different though. I also agree with you that DTG will be around and probably quite successful 5 to 10 years from now. However, I wouldn't confuse underlying business with the share price (which makes or loses me money). No but this is where we differ. I look for a business the market has wrongly valued and wait for a correction. Question is: would you justify your play if the share price collapses (it has done so before hasn't it) by another 90% if a major bear market comes roaring tomorrow? I would be buying whatever I could if all things were as they are now. Very probably you will tolerate all your historical gains (because you do expect the market to come back to its sense in the indeterminate future) being vaporised but I wouldn't. See my note above about taking money off the table as the price increased. If anything I am too early taking money back. I'd rather avoid losses during a bear market (and even go short if possible) and wait for a better entry on the long side (happy with the inevitable trade offs my approach entails) at a later stage. Agree but I don't short I just stay out. Hence my paranoid focus on the good old trend being my best friend concept. To me fundamental analysis is very important but it is just a departure point. Making sure you you never ever suffer serious drawdowns is an entirely different ball game. If we wake up tomorrow and TRUMP has Nuked North Korea then expect 25% off markets but is DART worth less? Of course not. To me anything more than 15% drawdown is intolerable, let alone 40% or more. See above that can happen in a blink of an eye. But that's me. Thanks for your comments anyways - you're one of the few posters I respect on this board.
29/8/2017
19:42
tongosti: Thanks for that - no doubt your analysis of DTG has paid off in spades for you historically. You have been a major beneficiary having timed your entry perfectly in the low teens 10 years back. You do realise though the company could have gone bust in 2008 (hypothetical scenario would be had governments stopped short of bailing out banks) in which case your stake would have vaporised and your classic value play turned to dust. So in this sense you have also been lucky (necessary for all of us in life as well as in this game I hear you say). Point being 9 out of 10 companies collapsing 90% in price or more have historically gone bust (lots of literature on the subject - keyword "value trap": most stuff on the cheap is so for a good reason). Buffett refers to it as the cigar butt approach. You have happened to pick up the one that has been a success. Kudos. Future could be very different though. I also agree with you that DTG will be around and probably quite successful 5 to 10 years from now. However, I wouldn't confuse underlying business with the share price (which makes or loses me money). Question is: would you justify your play if the share price collapses (it has done so before hasn't it) by another 90% if a major bear market comes roaring tomorrow? Very probably you will tolerate all your historical gains (because you do expect the market to come back to its sense in the indeterminate future) being vaporised but I wouldn't. I'd rather avoid losses during a bear market (and even go short if possible) and wait for a better entry on the long side (happy with the inevitable trade offs my approach entails) at a later stage. Hence my paranoid focus on the good old trend being my best friend concept. To me fundamental analysis is very important but it is just a departure point. Making sure you you never ever suffer serious drawdowns is an entirely different ball game. To me anything more than 15% drawdown is intolerable, let alone 40% or more.But that's me. Thanks for your comments anyways - you're one of the few posters I respect on this board.
29/8/2017
17:19
tongosti: Tiger As I have mentioned here before, the bullish case sounds good - on paper - and I do understand why this company has so many fans who use fundamental analysis as their one and only guide in selecting individual investments. In effect, what you (and many others) believe in is that fundamentals help determine share prices in the longer term and that's it. I also believe that but this is only half the story. I choose to go a step further in my analysis in that I also happen to believe that share prices also help (not always, obviously) reveal (well in advance) a lot of information about (future) fundamentals. A falling share price sometimes (key word!) precedes a deterioration in fundamentals themselves. Not my theory, but Soros's. DTG being 40% down from all time highs with the share price refusing to reflect the widely perceived "stellar" fundamentals speaks volumes to me. In the off chance you want to kill some time off - here's from the horse's mouth directly: hxxps://macro-ops.com/understanding-george-soross-theory-of-reflexivity-in-markets/
29/8/2017
10:27
tongosti: Really surprised you ask the question - I never ever said DTG is going belly up did I? Heaven forbid. At the risk of sounding redundant - it's the share price (as for the fall being "short / long term" in nature neither me nor you know at this stage). GLP.S. I make money only on share price movements (which you choose to neglect because you follow a different rule book - I totally understand that and whatever works for you) with the being conversation.
07/8/2017
13:03
castleford tiger: ok its been a while since the question but it was along the lines of..why did share price fall last year. It started with a massive change in direction for jet 2 that is buying new planes rather than flying older ones. The deal to buy 30 plus new 737/800 was the start of the period and only after this did brokers start to look at how EPS would fall following such a large capex Then Brexit Then in September a dart profit warning !! that the costs associated with the two bases may mean they undershoot forecasts. All this was reversed in November when they said profits would be higher than market exp. So the share price doubled in 5 months. So my comment is the market is wrong especially with DART as it has no comparable co. Valuing a house on a street is easy but a one off ?? The gaps in the uk market for dart are vast as the bigger players have such an expensive cost base. The fleet will grow to 80 plus by next year and DARTS growth will really kick in. As long as we don't have an accident and with 2100 flights a week that can happen..............I see more growth for dart before a settle period around 2020. tiger
01/8/2017
13:06
tongosti: Tiger Appreciate your view as that's what makes a market after all. I don't have fixed targets (either long or short) but simply try to ride the wave for as long as I can. 360 is simply some sort of a generic reference point (which I use to have a preliminary idea on risk/reward profile). RE your rationale - compelling as they sound on paper the market has already discounted such info. Big time. Only a major, major positive surprise can propel much higher the share price from current levels (example: >50% not 45% growth - an extremely challenging task for any business, if you ask me). The bar is simply unbelievably high. Beg to differ but no - going short at this stage is not crazy at all at this stage. On the contrary. Finally, a market that fails to move north (or south) on seemingly bullish (bearish) fundamentals is a very unhealthy (resilient) one. It's one of the defining features of any market throughout history. DTG is exactly at such a juncture now. Share price has completely failed to make headways at a time of: - Apparently very cheap valuations - Historical highs produced in the wider market - No share price can sustain a parabolic ascent for ever (long term chart for DTG looks scary to anyone who have seen the same old film repeat over and over again) Naturally, I can be totally wrong and that's why I limit my risk levels at the time I open a position. Helps me sleep better!
28/7/2017
17:15
tongosti: AlphaCertainly contrarian on prevailing sentiment grounds. Re momentum - yes I always aim being in sync with the market. Does it make you a consensus player by definition? Matter of perspective really. Example: suppose share price of ABC has collapsed from 100p to 5p over last 12 months. Further, suppose share price has turned North very recently and is priced at 10p. From a longer term perspective this it still a share being 90% down from all time highs and if one is long at this stage is considered a true contrarian. However, being long at a time when share price is 100% up from 5p lows makes one a consensus player (which is what you really meant earlier and which obviously is always correct in hindsight after one observes historical price action). Again, it's s matter of perspective
15/7/2017
10:33
wilmdav: Apart from the fact that the report is now more explicit about relevance of the Brexit outcome, Canaccord's forecasts for 2018 - 2020 must have been influential to the price drop. These are shown by Sharepad as having been issued on 13/07/17. Eps figures are 42.7, 45.2 and 50.3. At the current share price (515p) these translate to P/E's of 12.1, 11.6 and 10.24 for a period of 3 years during which growth in eps is zero compared to that just announced. No doubt this oversimplifies the situation and I should add that Sharepad shows Canaccord's target price as 720p. I have updated the DTG pages on the website below, which some might find useful. Cashflow charts are particularly informative. Falling operating margin forecasts are also displayed. Http://www.david-wilmshurst.co.uk/dtg/dtg_data.htm
08/11/2016
11:42
tongosti: Thanks for your comments Ben. My thoughts: "Debt - in current conditions how else would you finance the company with the way its growing?" I never said I am against it - on the contrary, taking on debt especially in an era of record low rates makes sense for healthy businesses. All I have been saying though is that until we know (which we don't at the moment) how much debt exactly the company (i.e. to what degree the capital structure of the company will be altered) expects to raise, one would not know the impact on valuing the underlying business (personally I like using EV/FCF as the ultimate valuation metric as opposed to simpler PE's party because it explicitly takes into account a company's capital structure). In my view, such uncertainty is very likely to have had an adverse impact on share price performance this year. "Market - a bear market is on the horizon and could be triggered on Wednesday with Donald. These are very difficult times with sterling, EU, US uncertainty and world equity in general but I haven't seen anything substantial enough to warrant a change in the very long term view here." As I wrote in my previous post, I also don't think this is a bad business long term (that's why I made the point that a June 2008 moment will hopefully be available for us again at some point in the future - where one may want to get in at far more attractive price levels). My points: - A good business (which DTG clearly has been so far and one expects to be so going forward on the back of their ambitions) does not necessarily always sell at good prices (I am very well aware of expected company growth rates but am also fairly sure that the market has significantly discounted such future growth to a meaningful extent already [surely, markets get things horribly wrong from time to time but such occasions are fairly infrequent as otherwise we would all be zillionaires]). - If so, one may a) want to wait before investing long term for more attractive prices (increasing one's margin of safety) down the line(current trend does not seem to have bottomed yet) OR b) wait for momentum to turn up again before getting back in / adding - which will be the equivalent of the market tipping us off that the worse is over and the tide has turned on the long side. - I take it as you would still be happy to be long DTG even in the face of a wider bear market. Your choice and I respect that but I happen to have a different way on how I go about it. Regardless how strong I may feel about underlying business prospects I would never tolerate significant drawdowns simply because things should (which is always a big if as we all know because it involves uncertain future outcomes) be all right longer term. My long term returns are clearly impacted by the price level I jump in and my perceived margin of safety. It is in this context that I am looking at DTG long term. "Your short term position will be short term but may extend into new year and beyond but I can't see a convincing long term change of perspective here so the shorting days are numbered. I can't see you've really tackled this long term view as of yet and therefore am not interested in short term minimal gains/losses." I have freely admitted here before that I am personally not capable into seeing clearly into the very long term because doing so normally requires a leap of faith (when a genius like Buffett fails with the likes of IBM and Tesco what hope do I have?) into so many potential combinations and permutations in the future(got burned badly years back on "sure-thing" long term business views like Blackberry [which unlike an airline was not a commoditised business but one with a genuine competitive durable advantage]). Having said that, I respect anyone who has far better capabilities than me in reading multi-year long term business prospects. All I can say about DTG's long term is that it should normally be a good business to be in but current price levels certainly demand caution (unless you are happy to completely disregard market prices and experience whatever drawdown levels in the meantime). As you may have noticed, I like paying close attention to the message the market is giving me. I strongly believe (Blackberry comes to mind and so many other former heavyweights) that market prices turn, way way before fundamentals may do so. In my view, when DTG is tanking by 50% (and in the process also underperforms its wider sector), I take it to mean that the market most likely knows something I don't (long story but this is Soros VS Buffett schools of thought and I happen to believe in the former) and this makes me very cautious at the moment. As the future unfolds, I will also update my view on DTG. All in all, there is no right or wrong here - the only judge will be future trading / investing performance. ATB
17/9/2015
12:52
davebowler: Investors Chronicle 14 September 2015 SIMON THOMPSON Catalysts for investment gains I always make a point of reading the annual report and accounts for each company I research. And not just for the past year, either, as I go back over a number of years to ascertain whether the business has delivered on previous guidance of the board. The other benefit of wading through what admittedly is a substantial document is that you can get a real feel for how each segment of a company's activities are performing. This is relevant to me right now because I have been carrying out this task for one of my 2015 Bargain Shares, Aim‐traded activist investment company Crystal Amber (CRS: 162p). The company's annual report and accounts for the fiscal year to the end of June 2015 was a real eye‐opener and I would strongly recommend you read it as part of your own research. The depth of detail attributed to each of the component companies in Crystal Amber's investment portfolio is mightily impressive, as is the breakdown of how the company managed to achieve its returns. True, the fund's total return of 5 per cent in the 12‐month period was nothing to shout about, being three points less than that of the FTSE Small Cap index, and that was after the benefit of banking substantial gains on holdings in Irish airline Aer Lingus and chocolate retailer Thorntons, both of which succumbed to takeover bids. However, the relative underperformance looks to be a thing of the past. Indeed, during the market rout in August, Crystal Amber's portfolio actually rose in value by 0.5 per cent, which compares rather well with the 6.8 per cent fall in the FTSE 100, the 3.2 per cent decline in the mid‐cap FTSE 250 index and the 2.5 per cent drop in the FTSE Small Cap index. Having analysed the investment merits of each of the fund's 10 largest holdings, which between them accounted for 127p of the end‐August book value of 165p a share, I feel this relative outperformance could continue for some time to come. I have good reasons for taking this stance. Grainger shares primed for re‐rating Firstly, Crystal Amber recycled a chunk of the cash from those takeovers into the residential property sector, having picked up a 3.4 per cent stake in the UK's largest listed residential property owner and manager, Grainger (GRI: 236p), a FTSE 250 constituent with a market value of £981m. It's a substantial investment, accounting for 36.1p a share of Crystal Amber's equity portfolio worth 151.7p a share. Crystal Amber also holds 13.2p a share of cash on its balance sheet to capitalise on further investment opportunities. What interests me about Grainger is the robust cash generation the company is set to generate over the next 13 years. That because its traditional reversionary business is based predominantly on regulated tenancies, which provide substantial, high‐quality, predictable and resilient cash flows. The company's portfolio of 7,400 reversionary assets has a carrying value of £1.5bn, but when these properties revert to vacant possession after an average period of about 10 years, Grainger sells them on and reaps their full open market value. Grainger's board estimates that they will generate a surplus of £500m, equivalent to 120p a share. But it could be far more because this embedded value is the difference between open market value of the tenanted assets and their higher vacant possession values at today's prices, and does not reflect any future benefit from house price inflation. This reversionary portfolio alone is expected to generate £120m of gross cash each year until 2030. Bearing this in mind, Grainger highlighted in last month's pre‐close trading update that sales of vacant properties achieved prices on average 8.3 per cent above September 2014 vacant possession value. It also outlined a pipeline of vacant reversionary assets worth in aggregate £213m of sales that have either completed, exchanged or are in solicitors' hands. That's important because the cash generated from the reversionary business is being recycled into private rented sector (PRS) residential developments. Grainger owns 8,400 properties as part of a market rented portfolio valued in excess of £1.1bn, including 3,400 homes in the UK where it is the market leader in equity release schemes principally for retired home owners. The company expects to complete around 1,070 market rented units over the next two years. Catalyst for re‐rating It's therefore worth noting that Grainger has just appointed investment bank Lazard & Co in Frankfurt to advise on the disposal of its wholly owned residential property assets in Germany, which are non‐core to the company's UK‐focused strategy. Grainger held around 5,600 homes with a market value of £311m in Germany at its last balance sheet date, so if this capital was released it would help accelerate the company's strategic and financial focus on its UK residential activities to enhance shareholder value while taking advantage of the currently strong market for residential property in Germany. I strongly feel that a disposal of the German properties, combined with the release of Grainger's full‐year results in late November, could provide the catalyst for the company's share price to make a decisive breakthrough the 250p level, which has acted as a glass ceiling to previous rallies in March 2014 and also this year. A chart break‐out would be justified, too, as analysts predict Grainger's triple net asset value will be around 250p by the end of this month, and that figure excludes the reversionary surplus of 120p a share I have mentioned above. Dart on the right plight path Another reason why I believe shares in Crystal Amber could do well in coming months is because it holds a 1.4 per cent stake in Aim‐traded Dart (DTG: 490p), the parent company of leisure airline Jet2 and distributor Fowler Welch. Around 90 per cent of Dart's annual revenues of £1.25bn and 93 per cent of its operating profits are generated from leisure activities. The airline side really interests me right now. That's because since 2004, Jet2 has increased seat capacity by 16 per cent on average each year, rising from 1.2m to 6m, by adding more planes and departures and using larger planes. Around half of its UK flights go to Spain, followed by destinations in Portugal, Italy and Turkey. The airline's UK hubs are all based in the north of England, Scotland and Ulster. The business model is distinct from other low‐cost airlines like Ryanair (RYA: €13.84) and easyJet (EZJ: 1,771p). Whereas most budget operators purchase new fuel efficient aircraft, Jet2 has bought inexpensive but fuel inefficient second hand planes. Many competitors fund their fleet with operating leases; for instance, all of Monarch's fleet is leased. In contrast, Jet2 has grown its 59 strong fleet mostly by buying the planes outright, and now owns 44 aircraft. The average age of Jet2's fleet is much older as a result, nearly 22 years, versus only five years for Ryanair. So, given its fuel inefficiency, Dart sensibly hedges out almost all of its fuel requirements at the start of each year. Clearly, the fuel inefficiency of the fleet is a challenge when oil prices are high, but with Brent crude at very depressed levels, having fallen by a further third since the summer, this is providing a tailwind at current prices. That said, as part of its planned fleet replacement, the company has recently entered into an agreement with Boeing to purchase 27 new Boeing 737‐800NG aircraft to be delivered between September 2016 and April 2018. The total value of this transaction is approximately $2.6bn (£1.7bn) and will be funded through a combination of internal resources and debt. Riding an earning upgrade cycle Dart certainly has the financial strength to upgrade its old fleet as financial results for the 2015 fiscal year were accompanied by a sharp upgrade to the current year's earnings forecast. Moreover, in a half‐year trading update last week, the company announced that its performance for the financial year ending 31 March 2016 is likely to be materially above those upgraded market expectations. This news prompted analyst Chris Thomas at broking house Arden Partners to raise both his pre‐tax profit and EPS estimates up by 25 per cent to £75m and 41p, respectively. The company will provide a further trading update in mid‐October following the half‐year̴8;end. The trading statement should make for a good read because the additional capacity taken on by Jet2Holidays, the company's packaged holiday business that supports and feeds off the airline, as it only uses Jet2's aircraft, is helping to drive load factors and ticket yields. This higher‐margin part of the business has grown to carry one million passengers in the year to March 2015, or a third of Jet2's capacity. The goal is to reach 50 per cent of its capacity. That target looks achievable. With the UK economy growing strongly again, real wages at their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, and sterling buoyant against the euro, foreign holidays are once again affordable. That's augurs well for the next trading update from Dart in mid‐October and I have a positive outlook on Dart's shares which only trade on 12 times earnings estimates. Turning over a new leaf The third reason why I believe Crystal Amber's shares have mileage is the fund's holding in Aim‐traded clean energy investment company, Leaf Clean Energy (LEAF: 41p). Crystal Amber owns 29.9 per cent of the shares in issue, so the stake accounts for 15.4p of the fund's net asset value of 164p. Following engagement with the board, Leaf Clean Energy has adopted a policy of asst realisation and capital return to shareholders. Operating costs have been slashed and the company has just sold four investments for a total of $8.4m (£5.5m) which almost doubles the cash pile to $17.4m, or a sixth of its pro‐forma book value of $105.2m, or 53p a share. That cash sum is worth about 9p a share, or over a fifth of Leaf Clean Energy's share price. It's worth pointing out that there could be upside to Leaf Clean Energy's book value too as asset sales progress. That's because well over half the value of the portfolio is invested in Invenergy Wind LLC, North America's largest independently‐owned wind power generation company. Leaf Clean Energy originally invested $40m in Invenergy and the company continues to execute on its capacity expansion plans and development initiatives across its core markets. The company is evaluating options for monetising its investment in this well‐performing asset, although this "is not expected prior to 2016". However, it's still worth noting that Invenergy sold 930 mega watts of wind power capacity for $2bn (£1.3bn) in July this year, highlighting the attractions of so called "yieldcos", entities that acquire and operate income generating assets from developers and operators such as Invenergy. Crystal Amber's investment advisers are of the opinion that the book value of the Invenergy stake in Leaf Clean Energy's accounts understates its true worth. So, although I am not suggesting you buy shares in Leaf Clean Energy, I feel that if the company can realise a higher value from its investment in Invenergy than the current book value, then the recovery in its share price could well continue. In turn, this could provide additional upside to Crystal Amber's own share price. The bottom line is that the odds favour an outperformance of Crystal Amber's share price over the rest of this year, both in absolute and relative terms, driven by likely investment gains on its portfolio as the catalysts I have outlined come into play. There is also a decent 5p a share divided too. On a bid‐offer spread of 157p to 162p, I continue to rate Crystal Amber's shares a buy.
Dart Group share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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