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Dart Group Share Discussion Threads
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|Thanks for that - agreed, the broader macro picture remains far from clear (stating the obvious but that is always the case isn't it I hear you say) especially in the light of a post-Brexit worldI know we have touched on it briefly before but I also think the uncertainty regarding debt finance expansion must definitely have had a say on the share price going down recently (personally it has been a key reason of why I bailed out from my long position a while back). Not surprising considering the fact no one knows how to vaguely quantify the potential hit on the balance sheet that the Southern expansion will be bringing about debt-wise. As I have mentioned here before, I am happy to go both long and short but I agree that if I were a long only investor I would probably hold myself back at this stage as the downtrend looks fairly strong at this stage. Finally, not sure whether you may be aware of it but what you are saying about DTG price anticipating certain fundamental headwinds fits in very well with Soros' Reflexivity theory (effectively saying that the link between fundamentals and market prices is not a one way street [as is widely believed] but rather a two way one as prices also help determine fundamentals) which I strongly believe to provide one of the best insights I am aware of for approaching the treacherous stock market game.|
|yes I said that.
However the falling FX is starting to worry me.
Next year is fully hedged fuel wise but we have seen a 50% increase in aviation fuel since the summer in pounds. 22% of this is FX rest increase in Oil
Rising inflation may well take the feel good factor away and even taking official level of 2-3% next year it will wipe out increase in wages.
Add in extra cost when there and we must all agree that fewer will travel as often.
On the plus side
New fleet will start to reduce cost per mile
All inclusive holidays will be in demand,
So overall I remain bullish on the long term return on dart but feel a period of stability in the share price is needed. The down trend looks to be coming.
If I miss first 10% back up so be it ,at least I will be sure its coming.
Of course even on mid 30`s pence earnings the share price looks ok .
|"Still for the brave but a pull back to 400p would be a buy signal."TigerCT - I thought your view is the cheaper the stock the better your entry point?|
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, if £ drops in value agst other currencies, the purchase this year of the SAME amount of Yen, USD, AUD, CAD or whatever as last year will show up as an INCREASE in £ terms.....
So trumpeting a 20% Y-O-Y £ increase in FX purchases is pretty meaningless...
Discl.: Holder of WIZZ, watching DTG, EZJ and FLYB|
|Monet, doesn't that article just state the obvious. Anybody going on holiday has probably commited before the currency slide and that said have to buy extra . Next year is where it will hurt, those that currency swings don't bother won't be the sort that want to sit on a jet2 flight for four hours, while the hostess gets the passengers legless by flogging as much booze as possible.|
|PUBLISHED: October 22, 2016 12:10 am
Falling pound fails to dent appetite for foreign travel, sales figures suggest
Households' appetite for foreign travel has not been dented so far by the recent falls in the value of the pound, sales figures suggest.
Despite the poorer exchange rates generally available to travellers heading out from the UK, Post Office Travel Money said it has seen 46% growth in currencies sold online during this month so far, compared with the same period in October 2015.
The Post Office, which accounts for one in four UK travel money transactions, said sales of the euro accelerated during September, to show a 14% year-on-year increase compared with the same period in 2015.
And, despite the weakening pound, US dollar sales were up 16% for 2016 as a whole, with "no sign" of a drop-off in demand, the Post Office said.
The figures, released as many families head off for a half term break or start booking their winter getaways, show the euro is the Post Office's best-selling currency, with the US dollar in second place.
Andrew Brown, the Post Office's head of travel money, said: "Our latest currency sales make it clear that the weaker pound has not dented UK holidaymakers' appetite for travel so far.
"There is strong evidence that holidaymakers are planning travel abroad, even to those countries whose currencies have strengthened most against sterling.
"For example, we have seen very strong growth in demand for the Indonesian rupiah and yet sterling has fallen 24% in value over the past year.
"Similarly, sales of the Japanese yen have soared by 19% while sterling is down by 31% since last year."
Read more at hxxp://www.expressandstar.com/business/uk-money/2016/10/21/falling-pound-fails-to-dent-appetite-for-foreign-travel-sales-figures-suggest/#7RMFSRsaZkGYHUQE.99|
Kiln dried 99% is imported and the fastest growing sector in the fuel market with over 1000% increase in sales over last two years.
Tiddler like us and we bring in 80 containers a season that's approaching a quarter of a million bags!
Remember this is seen as Green unlike coal !!
just look at Bio mass coming into Drax from USA/Canada.
Anyway my point is be it fuel/meat/fruit there are massive FX issues that are not going away.
On a separate issue Jet 2 had a fair bit of bad press this month with one 757 from Manchester having to make several return to base.
I still feel at half time they will be close to 200 million and over the year they will exceed forecasts.
The one question is how will 2017 turn out?
Remember they are launching Birm and Stan at a difficult time.
Its this lack of clarity that is holding price down.
It does seem to be making a new firm base around this level but any market fall could drag DART with it.
Still for the brave but a pull back to 400p would be a buy signal.
|firewood?? Are you serious? Is that in the RPI typical consumer expenditure?
Maybe we should reopen mines and export coal...|
|Its not just food.
Today firewood from USSR was costing 23% more than a year ago.
Just FX .Its bought in USD plus shipping/transport.
Big hikes coming or profit wipe out for many!
|I think Tesco and Unilever would both be very happy if they could inflate food by 10%! Isnt gonna happen with Aldi/Lidl pressure continuing.
And I dont think holidaymakers will find booze/food 20% up 'while they are there'.
No sign of employment numbers on the wane either.
I know the media and some politicians are talking up the doom and gloom but lets not forget that of the over 7bn people on planet earth, less than 300m reside in eurozone ex UK ....
China/India economies growing 6.7% still, with eurozone looking very anaemic by comparison.
I just dont feel the economic factors are as negative as some would have us believe.|
With food inflation at 10% and fuel costs rising fast the feel good factor may just splutter a bit.
Plus a 20% increase in costs when there will all add to the pressure.
Longer term I agree 100% but employment cannot be or remain as you feel.
There are a few twists left yet in my opinion.
Dart always undershoots fair value.
See before 150p to 16p...........
|In an era of relatively full employment, rising house equity, low fuel costs I dont believe significant numbers will give up on their overseas holidays. Fuel costs hedged and overseas hoteliers will get squeezed on prices further.
Adverse sentiment is a gift to long term DTG holders in my view as it is overdone. Aided by shorters and wealthy city 'teenagers' who underestimate the importance of the annual holiday (or 2) within family budgets|
|No and headwinds gathering.300p looks on the cards and even if profits fall back to 50 million that looks cheap .
Not looked at their offers for next summer. Have they gone up?
The all in deals will be in demand but unsure who takes the 20% hit on FX|
|Well that's hardly helping the share price isn't it?DTG has massively underperformed - this year - not only major UK averages but more importantly the FTSE 350 Travel and Leisure sector. Negative relative strength (especially in your immediate peer group) is never a good omen.|
|Heavy advertising on the tubes in London for jet2. Promoting stansted and cheap flights. Did almost all Liverpool Street tubes!|
Yes the most successful investor in Dtg I've come across bought all the way down to 12p and at that stage bought over a million shares making her over £20m in the recovery|
|Glad I paused before buying to see if the 400p line held.
I guess the fundamental problem is that no one really knows what impact the falling £ is going to have on overall travel demand.
Currently the market appears to be assuming the worst.|
|It will be taken out that's the end game.
Certainly worth 12 x exit
Just looking at my old trades when I watched them fall from 150 to 20 p in early 2008.
I thought he meant fair value as in what's it really worth - and I believe in a sale they might get upto 12x with the quality returns and growth record.
I agree that we're getting near good value levels. The sector has been derated on profit warnings - I guess costs are reasonably well hedged for 12-18 months forward so there shouldn't now be too many nasty surprises and we know sales are looking fairly good so far.|
Dart never got valued at 12x nearer 8 I would say.
First half will be massive maybe 200 million profit. So that may give it a leg up.
Going forward the market makers have falling profits.
As ever DART will beat forecasts but we are stabbing in the dark re costs of new planes and opening the bases.
I feel anything in the 3 `s would be a great entry point , but feel it may go to the low end first.
To tuck away at say 320p cannot be a bad buy.
However to miss the first 10% of any rise to break this trend may well be very sensible . The market will probably undershoot fair value.
Interesting that Meeson did not attempt to issue shares at say 600p when announcing the plane deal.
I watch with interest.
|Well if we make 47p this year and a good airline might sell for 12x you're up near £6.|
|Agree, can't see why this would bounce near term at all with the headwinds it is facing. However, there does have to be a floor does anyone have a clue where that could be for fair value? cheers|
|Book - looks highly likely for 300p to be hit soon. Great price action on the downside so far - long it may continue|
|Easy downgraded due to more headwinds.
I still think lower to go with a small blip up on half year numbers.