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Real-Time news about Dana Petroleum (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|emptyend: Re the "performance has more or less tracked the oil price without outstripping it" point, I note that I bought Dana shares at £2.20 in November 2003 with Brent oil prices at $30. Dana shares are now c.£18 and Brent is c.$76.
The Dana share price has risen about 35% compound since I've held it, marginally outperforming SOCO and JKX, and compared with about 47% compound at Tullow and 45% compound at Cairn (the two outstanding exploration success stories of recent years).....BUT they have greatly outperformed companies like Premier Oil and BG, which have returned about 22% compound. I've no complaints - and they must have been doing something right to outperform at least some of the peers.
And, whilst the City "battalions" are beyond rousing (no surprise there!!) the same isn't yet 100% certain re the industry, despite what the share price is indicating.|
|jojo_jo: Good play by Koreans, going public on Friday. DNX have to risk the wrath of shareholders if they reject it and let the share price collapse back to the £12 region. So it's either this or a higher rival bid, should one appear (- there aren't any other real options). I would say an alternative bid is fairly likely, at perhaps only £1/1.50 higher. This would be acceptable, meaning KNOC would then (and only then) come back with a trump of £20 or more. Obviously ANYTHING above £18 would be recommended by the board, subject to no higher cash bid being received.
I'm holding for now, because it will go for (at least) £18. TC & co. couldn't risk an outright refusal. They'll probably drag it out now (opening the books, due diligence, etc), and just hope some better bid comes in. An outright 'undervalues the company' rejection would be a risky way to play it, in view of the positive major shareholder/city reaction. They don't want KNOC to walk and will try and extract a bit more (50p - £1). One has to consider they have already upped the bid from an initial £17 and are now offering a 50% premium to the pre-publication price (on July 1), and an even bigger (65%) premium to the mid-june price at the time of their original approach. A further slight increase in their bid now would be almost impossible for Dana to reject.
The only other thing they could do is add some kind of increase (special dividend or similar) should Anne Marie come in, as this is not yet part of the reserves figure, and was not, looking at the share price in mid-June, priced in. So it would be fair to assume that Anne Marie has only upside valuation potential. Alternatively, depending on how long it drags out, Anne Marie could spud. This would be fair reason to ask more, and be a good catalyst for rival bidders, who may wait for this to happen (or not). It looks like there's some mileage left in this.
Put simply, KNOC will get it for £18 unless another bidder appears, or Anne Marie comes in.|
|adda: bit of trivia for everyone. Since the TO prelim approach DNX price action has been higher than PMO. GS has both with similar NAVs & price target diff of 20p. Now PMOs share price is higher than DNXs bearing in mind we have been approached with a poss TO. Obviously PMO has updates on Catcher to announce and poss upgrades to size of find. Personally I think DNX has some catching up to do whilst PMO is def worth adding to on weakness.|
|emptyend: Shareholder value is not always reflected in the share price......indeed in many cases it remains that way for some years!
It is a sad fact of corporate life that, no matter how much one does to add to fundamental shareholder value, this doesn't necessarily flow through to the share price (though in Dana's case there were certainly some important drilling disappointments in 2009, eg Trolla, that affected sentiment and thus the share price).|
|hectorp: All this crude pricing is a massive volatility dynamic ( ie from 60 to 140 then back to 60, now 40 etc) reflecting the smashing of long traders at 144 and now we could also see the smashing of short positions in the $30's or 20's , of course I've no idea where the price will be in a month and I don't readilly trade crude. AS regards China, it does seem they could well be heading for recession and the rest of the Far East will too.
However should crude really fall to under $30 there would later be a shortage of crude being pumped due to non-production at such a price, thus defining higher prices all the quicker - so the faster the fall to $20's the faster the recovery to whatever the recovery can handle.
I wish I had some idea what will happen to DNX share price thanks to all this falling away , presumably 2009 is partly hedged at for example over $80 ?
anyone know of this?|
|rogerbridge: I agree with bomfin, this is a great opportunity to build a stske in DNX and a few more oil companies. Yes we are in a bear market and DNX could drop further, but if you are looking long term, as I am (SIPP)DNX is very attractive at this level.
If the price of oil drops to maybe $105, markets will rise. If the oil price stays around $100-$110 economies will pick up oil demand will rise and the oil price will rise. DNX share price will rise. May give it a week or two, hoping that DNX will drop some more, but I have my finger on the buy button.|
|bomfin: Crude prices would have to fall below $80/barrel before I'd think my prospective DNX share prices were under threat. i.e. £28/share by this time next year. If natural gas prices were to also fall beneath an average of £30/boe for the year then I'd revise my prospective share price figures. I also expect DNX to add to that prospective share price through exploration success during the next 12 months. IMHO DYOR|
|hectorp: So- how do we DNX followers interpret the effect of a rising US market and falling crude prices on DNX share price.
So far the effect is all to clear.
Don't know the timing on East Rinnes. 3 weeks I think was mentioned. I thought they might be a bit quicker than that and get to target this week. If not it should be next week. They didn't annoucnce West Rinnes until it had been tested and there had already been significant action on DNX share price!! I did wonder what was up long before the announcement but didn't even know West Rinnes was drilling!! Anyway this is the stockmarket and I got in early after the accouncement and have £2.80 per share since getting back in.
The attraction here is the 'above expectations' 50/50 on whether that means flow rate was above expectations or likely reserves were above expectations. If it's the latter (edit,had said first in error) then this has higher to go. imho dyor|
|exmooroil: 7.12.07, POO $88.54, exch rate $2.04, ie £43.40/bbl. DNX share price: 1420p
9.1.08, POO $96.00, exch rate $1.96, ie £49.00/bbl. DNX share price: 1343p
That's oil +12.9%, DNX share price (5.4)%, combined swing over 18% in 1 month.|
Dana Petroleum share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange