Dana Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[edmondj] 13/9/2010 08:42

The 'superior wisdom' of stockmarket rules does however seem to confer voting rights, i.e. who controls of a significant UK plc can be strongly influenced by Wall Street hustlers of just a few weeks 'ownership' via CFDs.

You have to ask though, why the ultimate owners of the shares could not appear to care less.

[thegreatgeraldo] 13/9/2010 08:27

grigor - 12 Sep'10 - 20:43 - 13328 of 13331

What proportion of the shares are currently held by Hedge Funds?

..Zero% ? Haven't they borrowed their stock?

[bomfin] 12/9/2010 22:18

kamsahamnida

[hiq] 12/9/2010 21:13

Won't get bid higher, that's for sure.

[edmondj] 12/9/2010 21:05

Somewhere between 20-30%?

Together with the willing institutional sellers at £18, that is why it will go to KNOC if there is no counter offer this week.

'Smaller' investors are unlikely to hang on with their money tied up in uncertainty, given that weighting in ready sellers.

[grigor] 12/9/2010 20:43

What proportion of the shares are currently held by Hedge Funds?

[edmondj] 12/9/2010 20:32

They probably feel they look sillier recommending a small premium to £18, and relations may be too frosty for that anyway. They may feel it is worth the gamble of demonstrating a detailed/quantified defence to the industry, for a better offer and one that may enable shareholders to retain equity exposure to the development/drilling - a move with which I would agree.

[phillis] 12/9/2010 19:30

there is still no downside risk!
TC( and his Board) looking a little silly - they could have had a little more for a rec and not spent the £ on an external valuation in which nobody outside the Company seems to believe

[emptyend] 12/9/2010 18:29

Bad press today in the ST for DNX and TC in particular

I think you'll find that TC is perfectly content to be "the Millwall of the E&P sector" if that is what it takes. I can't think of anyone less likely to care one iota about ill-considered trashy press comment - and I can't think of anyone who would take more delight in making the whole lot of them look prats*!

As EJ says.....lets wait and see. £18 might be all there is - but, unlike virtually everyone else, I won't be surprised if we see a recommended deal from a third party in the next few days.

*Make no mistake - they WILL all look prats if Cross can pull off a decent result from the present position, especially since so many press and analysts have queued up to put the boot in..

ee

[edmondj] 12/9/2010 18:10

If the industry does not move by the end of this week, then I would agree.

Its professional stance would be to wait until Dana has published its defence document and KNOC made its full and final offer. Not wade in beforehand.

[alanadale] 12/9/2010 18:07

C'mon EJ. It's not just the hacks, it's the industry as well.

[edmondj] 12/9/2010 16:31

Worthless hacks! Puppets for KNOC's PR.

[phillis] 12/9/2010 13:56

There is no downside risk
This is a done deal

Bad press today in the ST for DNX and TC in particular

[fjp73] 12/9/2010 11:11

Emptyend - that's what arbs are there for. If it doesn't go ahead, I don't see it staying this high as most companies are only valued decently during offer periods, but hey that's obvious. Best of success with it...Fraser

[talkman] 12/9/2010 10:38

Tom Cross must be really embarassed. If the KNOC offer of £18 so significantly undervalues the company in Cross's opinion why has no one else made an offer ?

[emptyend] 12/9/2010 10:23

I'm holding because of the possibility of an auction starting. I agree that prevailing wisdom is that this definitely won't happen (and that is clearly what the market thinks!) - but it only take one more buyer to produce such an auction....

There isn't much downside risk - I can't see the company staying independent, given that its shares are now at least 50% held by people who are happy to sell at £18 (or more).

[fjp73] 12/9/2010 09:47

Good Morning DNA'ers,

Can I ask the question, why is anyone is holding now? I'm willing to listen, yes there's some upside, but isn't there a greater risk on the downside? I sold DNA, preferring to buy BG. (BG Group), CNA (Centrica) and Cairn Energy (CNE) for the longer term, oh and some divi. I believe for a PI (my view), the time has come to wave goodbye and find a new home.

Will be certainly one to watch now...

ATB for those that are in my view more informed and perhaps brave!

Good Morning Also, Emptyend, nice to see you still investing and I hope all is well.

Fraser

[emptyend] 12/9/2010 09:39

I don't think there is any point in running though lists of possibles. Either they are already round the table talking to Dana - or they don't matter.
As Edmond has noted above re Centrica and Davjo has noted elsewhere more generally, Dana's asset mix won't suit many buyers...... but it only takes one other bidder, as with any auction......

[edmondj] 11/9/2010 21:38

He was in control of the Venture bid situation though, and playing hardball as first mover - rather like KNOC here.

Not quite the man to play second fiddle here perhaps; and although North Sea gas fits into Centrica's ambit, what of Dana's more exotic oil exploration?

CNA does have £1.8bn cash though!

Another potential, perhaps:

[churchill2] 11/9/2010 21:15

The suppose the sticking point is the institutions and hedge funds would prefer cash to Centrica paper.

Interesting to note that in the time that has elapsed since the Koreans approached Dana the Centrica share price has risen 30%.

So rather than accept six Centrica shares for each Dana share a couple of weeks ago I would personally be quite happy with five and a half.

So come on Sam time is running out.

[edmondj] 11/9/2010 10:09

This was Centrica's review with its end-July interims; however Dana's strategic priority on oil with recent acquisitions may temper appeal? Previously I recall TC attracted some criticism for (over) exposure to gas and its weaker price.


Upstream gas and oil

Our UK upstream gas and oil business has made good progress during the first six months of 2010. The integration of Venture with our existing activities has been completed successfully, greatly enhancing our upstream capabilities. Staff retention across the business has also remained high. We now have the depth of expertise to become a leading operator of mature and orphaned assets in the UK, Norway and The Netherlands. We have also embedded the decision making processes and accountabilities required to ensure that the business can operate with the pace and flexibility required to realise fully the opportunities made available to it.

During this period we have made good progress on our gas development projects. The third development well at our Chiswick field in the North Sea was successfully drilled and brought on stream in early 2010 and the fourth well is expected to come on stream in the third quarter. Both the Eris and Ceres gas fields commenced production in March 2010. Work on the F3-FA development continues to progress with the platform due to be installed on location later in 2010. First gas remains on track to be delivered during winter 2010/11.

Successful appraisal drilling in the western region of the Cygnus field has now been completed and the reserves potential of the field is now being assessed as part of the full field development planning. As part of our focused exploration and appraisal programme we made discoveries at the Olympus prospect in the southern North Sea and the Fogelberg and Maria prospects in Norway. Results from the wells are encouraging and early indications are that these will be commercial development opportunities.

Of the ten operated and non-operated wells drilled this year seven have shown positive results, including three exploration discoveries. A further six wells are scheduled to be drilled by the end of 2010 giving Centrica one of the most active drilling programmes in the UK North Sea.

In February we announced the acquisition of Suncor's portfolio of Trinidadian exploration, development and production assets, providing access to one of the Atlantic Basin's key LNG export areas. Government approval has been secured and the transaction is expected to be completed shortly.

The low gas price continued to impact returns from our upstream gas and oil business in the period although this was partially offset by greater production, with a full six month contribution from the Venture assets. As a result operating profit1 was £314 million (2009: £346 million). The average achieved gas sales price was down 29% at 39.8 pence per therm (p/th) (2009: 55.7p/th) reflecting the reduction in UK wholesale market gas prices. In addition the price achieved in 2009 benefited from forward sales entered into when the gas price was materially higher. The corresponding effect of forward sales in 2010 was significantly lower.

Overall gas production volumes were up 41% at 1,321 million therms (mmth) (2009: 939mmth) and oil and condensate production were also up 88% at 6.0 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) (2009: 3.2mmboe) reflecting the additional contribution from the Venture assets as well as higher production from Morecambe, which was shut in for parts of 2009. Overall production costs increased to £504 million (2009: £309 million) reflecting higher production volumes and an increased proportion of production from newly developed and acquired fields.

[emptyend] 11/9/2010 09:46

Like any long-term holder it is in my interests to wait also to see if a paper alternative can be found.

That is quite an interesting point, which i was also mulling last night. Normally I would prefer to have cash - but in this case (given upcoming drilling on AM and Cormoran and the 2011 programme) I wouldn't be averse to a paper alternative on reasonable terms from, say, Centrica.

[edmondj] 11/9/2010 08:14

More secular belief, that Morgan Stanley will be motivated by the prospect of a success fee, to do its best to flush out an alternative buyer.

Like any long-term holder it is in my interests to wait also to see if a paper alternative can be found.

[alanadale] 10/9/2010 18:23

I think you'll need more than the Wheel of Fortune EJ, more like divine intervention.

[edmondj] 10/9/2010 16:17

And here's some appropriate music to relax with, awaiting a possible oil industry counter offer: