Dana Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[phillis] 10/9/2010 15:03

..and EJ with the salt and vinegar

[emptyend] 10/9/2010 12:27

I'll be ready with the pepper grinder....

[alanadale] 10/9/2010 12:23

'There is also a world of difference between £18 and the valuations in the defence documents! '

Precisely. But no one seems to be taking these very seriously.

You're right; a company is worth what someone is prepared to pay for it. But you'd have thought if TC's prognostications were half credible, there would be a bevy of people queuing up in a Dutch auction.

I'll happily eat my words if they miraculously materialise.

[emptyend] 10/9/2010 11:56

Market price. The market is the market. There is also a world of difference between £18 and the valuations in the defence documents! And for all we know there may be a difference between £18 and the market price next week.

[alanadale] 10/9/2010 11:54

Your point is taken emptyend. But are your comparisons made with Dana shares at £18 or circa £11 before the bid approach? There's a world of difference and that is why this is all over bar the shouting.

[emptyend] 10/9/2010 11:27

Re the "performance has more or less tracked the oil price without outstripping it" point, I note that I bought Dana shares at £2.20 in November 2003 with Brent oil prices at $30. Dana shares are now c.£18 and Brent is c.$76.

The Dana share price has risen about 35% compound since I've held it, marginally outperforming SOCO and JKX, and compared with about 47% compound at Tullow and 45% compound at Cairn (the two outstanding exploration success stories of recent years).....BUT they have greatly outperformed companies like Premier Oil and BG, which have returned about 22% compound. I've no complaints - and they must have been doing something right to outperform at least some of the peers.

And, whilst the City "battalions" are beyond rousing (no surprise there!!) the same isn't yet 100% certain re the industry, despite what the share price is indicating.

[alanadale] 10/9/2010 11:18

Poor TC, more Grand Old Duke of York than Marshall Zhukov.

I'm afraid he's been hoist by his own petard, unable to marshal the battalions to match the rhetoric.

True Dana may have been a fantastic investment for those who bought in the late '90s or caught it at the absolute nadir after the 2008 crash. But for less percipient folk its performance has more or less tracked the oil price without outstripping it and in recent years the impression has grown that it has not really lived up to the hype.

Perhaps TC was unlucky. But when it came to it, his promise of oodles of jam tomorrow simply wasn't believed.

[edmondj] 10/9/2010 10:45

14 August speculation:



It would partly seem to depend on how motivated is Morgan Stanley, to achieve a % success fee as Dana's new adviser. Better get a move on, chaps.

[emptyend] 10/9/2010 10:28

No - and I wouldn't expect any today either.

It isn't over....but the fat lady's gargling is getting quite loud.

[dougdig] 10/9/2010 10:05

Here's hoping - it is far from over yet even though the biased reporting is clearly an attempt to make one think otherwise.
Any rumours re other suitors?

[edmondj] 10/9/2010 07:39

Yes some humour needed with Dana and KNOC spending £ millions on advisers, effectively to slag each other off this week, it's up to Morgan Stanley though to find someone who considers £18 deserves trumping - and pick up the willing institutional sellers facilitating a takeover.

History suggests a low chance of rival offers although 'peak oil' thoughts are coming to the fore and KNOC signals the scramble for reserves.

We shall see.

[churchill2] 09/9/2010 18:18

I have sent an ultimatum to Sam Laidlaw at Centrica. If we do receive a counterbid by Monday morning then I have no alternative but to take drastic action. I will let his tyres down.

[dougdig] 09/9/2010 16:43

Mine came electronically from TDW...I am not in the least tempted!

[edmondj] 09/9/2010 15:53

Only via nominee broker, telling me that if I didn't accept then I might have difficulty realising my investment after the 23rd.

[rumblefish] 09/9/2010 15:30

has any PI recieved the offer from KNOC in the mail.....

[jojo_jo] 09/9/2010 12:55

It's possible that KNOC may still have some privileged information preventing them buying. TC may have withheld some little bits in their announcement - I would have. I don't see anyone signing irrevocables, unless there are caveats or get out clauses, which makes them worthless.
I still expect counter bidders (I hesitate to call them 'white knights', which are often partners or merger-seekers). If I have to let go at £18, of course I will, but there's no incentive to sell yet. The game is still afoot.

[phillis] 09/9/2010 11:34

I fall into that category
Shame really my last sale was at£19.59

[edmondj] 09/9/2010 11:24

They have until the 23rd during which time, holders may steadily throw in the towel just below £18 if seeing no higher offer yet opportunities elsewhere.

[phillis] 09/9/2010 11:15

well they aren't in too much of a hurry or the price would have risen
it doesn't rule them out though - as you observe, plenty of sells


in the old days the jobbers would have hoisted a sign saying buy at 1800

[edmondj] 09/9/2010 11:07

How do you know they haven't?

Someone will have snapped up the AT 'sells' and there are plenty of buys.

Having nudged the price below £18, Merrill is not going to bid it straight back up.

[phillis] 09/9/2010 11:00

a white knight would have wanted to be announcing this am it was contemplating an offer to prevent KNOC hoovering up stock

Really curious KNOC haven't been buying - after all 1787 is cheaper than 1800

[edmondj] 09/9/2010 10:14

Merrill Lynch has shown it doesn't believe there is a likely chance of a counter bidder, in advising this resolute stance to KNOC; it is now up to Morgan Stanley (Dana's newly appointed extra adviser) to work the telephones for a white knight.

[fhmktg] 09/9/2010 10:11

Rather than buying in the open market, won't KNOC and their advisors be firming up the letters of intent into irrevocable committments before end Septmber deadline. No point paying fees to brokers!
What the traders do with their long positions above £18 could be interesting.
Nothing for another week to ten days for the prudent PI?

Unless TC actually has some candidates for a counter offer ready to spring I expect this to wrap up in the next week.
Any views?

[nigelpm] 09/9/2010 09:38

I see a rival bid coming.

They'd best be quick. KNOC's advisors will be hoovering up all they can muster right now.

[jojo_jo] 09/9/2010 09:36

There is a good chance that others are running their slide rules over this after yesterday's announcement. Give them a few days, and we may see a rival bidder or bidders, looking for a reliable and politically stable oil supply. There are several potential players who would be interested in DANA at a 33% discount to its potential future enterprise value (£30). Consequently I see a rival bidder (or two) entering the fray within a week or two. Alternatively it goes for £18, but it will surely go. It just needs one of the big holders, like Schroders, to now withdraw its letter of support, to upset KNOC's apple cart. Anyone happy with £18 should have sold up over the last few days at over this.

I see a rival bid coming.