Crosby Asset. Share Discussion Threads

[jojo_jo] 19/5/2011 10:44

I (imho) estimate the risk/reward ratio at: 20% downside risk vs. 300% upside potential (and that's just medium term).

[jojo_jo] 19/5/2011 10:35

Mr T, if you read earlier posts you will see it is clear they are NOT going to use this £2.25m 'working capital' for acquisitions/investments. It will pay the office rent, telephone bill, etc. The directors won't even draw wages from it - they don't need to.
The fact that they have announced this today makes it crystal clear that they are NOT going for any placing or shareholder fundraising and (as is obvious) can't buy diddly squat with £2m, so MUST be taking the fully financed acquisitions/investments/mergers route.

Your red-herring talk of A.Jr being away at Uni has been discussed (and dissed) here before.
The fact that our name is being changed to that of his Swiss asset holding company makes it clear this is being taken seriously.
Nobody is saying Mr A.Sr is getting involved and Uni fees etc are just peanuts (to both of them!)

Your attempt at de-ramping is wearing a bit thin. Take some good advice: if you're still short at around 5p, get out with a small loss, switch to long and make some serious money. Otherwise you'll get badly burnt in the next spike.

All IMHO so dyor.

[2magpies] 19/5/2011 10:28

It should all become much clearer in Monte Carlo. Not long to go now.

I'm quite sure that Zoltav Resources is NOT going to just sit around and do nothing.

[t 34] 19/5/2011 10:17

They mentioned Africa,S.America,Australasia,Cenrtal and Eastern Europe.

[t 34] 19/5/2011 10:01

Abramowicz junior is getting involved with Mr.A senior money;this coincides with junior going to Uni for business study;senior paid for UNi theory lessons and in here fot practical lessons which might bring fruit or nor not;if senior wanted to be involved he would do it directly under his name not using son.

[2magpies] 19/5/2011 09:53

I think we can be fairly sure that Abramovich would NOT have got involved unless specific targets/objectives had not already been identified.


They have said, several times, that the new name reflects what they are about now. So something in Russia, it seems. And that's a BIG place. With very BIG resource plays.

[2magpies] 19/5/2011 09:44

T34

I'm sure Mr.A will think of something.

He's not on here just to be a bystander.

Perhaps CSB (Zoltav) will get the licence AMR has been waiting for? ;-)

[t 34] 19/5/2011 09:38

What kind of investment strategy you can persue with 2.25 GBP;what can you buy for this money?

[jojo_jo] 19/5/2011 09:07

They make it clear they have sufficient cash for both working capital and their investment strategy...

"In January and February 2011, the Company raised gross funds GBP2.25 million, in support of its new strategy, from institutional and professional investors. The Board believes that these funds have provided CAM with sufficient resources to meet its working capital requirements and pursue the investment strategy."

They obviously intend making fully financed acquisitions and investments and appear to have some in the bag already. Lots of good things in prospect for Monte Carlo (if I make enough money on CSB this year I may be able to afford to go next! LOL).

[tomboyb] 19/5/2011 07:30

"Can't be many AIM stocks where the GM is held in Monte Carlo!"

Yes - Just noticed that! lol.

[2magpies] 19/5/2011 07:28

Well, no placing, then.

Anyone going to the GM?

Can't be many AIM stocks where the GM is held in Monte Carlo!

[jojo_jo] 18/5/2011 16:45

I can't see any point in a placing. It would hardly raise any meaningful capital, so would be pointless. The share price is just too low to consider it. It's more likely they raise finance against specific acquisitions, and this why Renaissance have been appointed. Renaissance know it will be fairly easy to raise takeover/merger funding using the names involved here. Initially I believe they will pick out 2 - 4 targets worth perhaps £100m which will be fully financed via Renaissance. As these grow quickly in value the equity generated can be leveraged to make further acquisitions and so on.
All imho, so dyor.

[2magpies] 18/5/2011 16:06

Joint broker. The old one is still there.

Change of name does not flag a placing, does it?

Anyhow, investors recently subscribed at 4p. And I doubt if Mr.A will want his holding to be diluted (i.e. he may subscribe enough to stay at 26% -- or may increase?

[montyhedge] 18/5/2011 14:31

Yes but sounds like a placing coming with change of broker and new name?

[jojo_jo] 18/5/2011 13:38

Nobody ever 'expects' to make a million out of one stock. Like you say it usually happens unintentionally, when that one stock you wrote off and put in the drawer eventually takes off years later (a good such example being QXL, which I did exactly that with following the dot.com meltdown).
However one can realistically hope to quadruple one's investment investing in secure penny stocks at or near the beginning of their journey. Nothing is guaranteed, but hanging onto the shirt tails of names like Abramovich and McKeown is as safe a bet as you can get on AIM (not that any there are 'safe' per se). Crosby is basically a much better than average bet on the know-how and influence of the main stakeholders.
I'm in and continuing to build on weakness like this.

[patboy] 18/5/2011 11:23

from iii board dpl

How can an 'average PI' become seriously rich in any one stock?
Let's face it, the odds are so stacked against us that it almost never happens.

Think about it.
Average earnings in the UK is circa £27k.

Now let's suppose Mr. Average is mad enough to invest one third of his annual earnings in a single stock pick. That's £9k. And no 'sensible' IFA would ever advise this.

So, let's assume that 'seriously rich' for the average man on the street equates to the magic £1m. That's the 'dream' amount touted by our most popular quiz show. Heck no, let's make it half that, just to illustrate how difficult it would be for the average PI to hit £500k.

How on earth is Mr.Average expected to achieve that sort of profit with his £9k?
That would require a return in the magnitude of 5500%
How could that possibly be achieved in one stock?

It happens though. Paladin Energy, Cairn Energy, Extract Minerals, Lion Mines, Azure Energy, Fortescue Metals Group, Dragon Oil ... even Excite has managed it from its lows.

But it's very very rare.

So the first challenge for Mr.Average is picking 'the next (insert one of the above)'.

That will likely require picking an explorer who has not yet stumbled on a large discovery. For Mr. Average to pick an explorer BEFORE they strike big ... well, it's luck. For Mr.Average to invest one third of his annual earnings in an explorer before they strike big ... well, it's stupidity bordering on madness.

But say Mr.Average manages to do this and buys 100,000 GKP shares at 9p with his £9k just before they strike in Kurdistan.

So far, so bleedin' lucky.

The share price hits £1, but he's still a long way from his £500k return.
And bizarrely, though the single biggest obstacle to him achieving his target has been removed (the initial oil strike), the odds of him holding out for his £5 probably get longer.

Why?

Well, it was fine to commit one third of his annual earning to one stock. But now Mr.Average sees that he has 4 years of salary invested in GKP. This naturally and unsurprisingly changes his mindset.

Think of all the things he could sensibly do with that money. A profit is a profit after all. He can simply press the sell button and emerge a winner. The temptation is huge and there is nothing wrong in that. Good luck to all the Mr.Averages who can secure ten times their investment.

In fact, the allure of cashing in is likely to be so great, that Mr.Average will give little thought or diligence to the radically improved fundamentals of the company he has invested in. His head is telling him it's the same company that sat at 9p exploring for oil. What if it goes back to 9p?! The desire to book the profit sitting in his account will likely be far greater than his desire to re-evaluate the company its prospects.

But let's say Mr.Average manages to resist the temptation to sell and decided to hold out for his £5.

And let's imagine he is an avid reader of these boards. On a minute by minute basis, he will be bombarded with conflicting messages to buy, hold, sell and countless, often unsubstantiated reasons to do so. The stock (GKP) will become a victim of its success as all manner of traders and investors are suddenly drawn to it. Pretty soon, it might all get a bit too much for Mr.Average. He might not be able to separate fact from fiction. He probably preferred the BB at 9p when there were three posts a day and little movement in the share price He might decide that enough is enough and decide to bail.

But let's imagine he is made of sterner stuff and can tolerate the incessant ramping, deramping and rumour mongering. He still has to contend with stock volatility.

Now, when he only had £9k in play, a 10% swing might have made him feel a little peeved, but no more than that. But now that he has over £100k in play, well ... a 10% drop could feel like his whole world has imploded. One drop like this might be enough for Mr.Average to stop his loss, sell up and go play golf. The giddiness and stress (never mind the sleepless nights) brought on by the volatility can become all consuming. And it can go on for many months ... years even. How is Mr.Average – on his £27k a year – supposed to cope? He hasn't had any training for this.

And yet, one has to assume that certain Mr.Averages that invested in Fortescue, Cairn, Paladin, etc. managed to hold on and achieve life-changing rewards. Perhaps they just put their shares in a drawer and forgot to check them for 4 -5 years. Or perhaps they really did stay strong through every up, down, shake, rattle and roll.

If so, they deserve every penny they've earned.

[jojo_jo] 18/5/2011 10:58

Surprisingly (to me) the initial market reaction to this has been negative!?

This is positive imho inasmuch it implies a leveraged route to asset introduction/acquisition/investment rather than reversals or partial reversals (which are much more dilutive). Obviously any/all finance will be underpinned by the assets themselves and as long as these are 'cheap' or reasonably discounted they should provide excellent leverage for the current market cap. I can see up to £1bn in financed assets being introduced fairly quickly, and as these assets appreciate so will the share price Example scenario: if £500m of introduced, fully financed assets grow to be worth £750m over a year, the NAV will grow to at least £250m, or 14x where we are now.
Obviously we can expect some of the stakeholders to partly cash-out some of their existing holdings by introducing them over the first year, but this will be at shareholder friendly values (as no-one has a controlling stake).



As a Russia (and Emerging Markets) focused broker-bank Renaissance appear to be the perfect partners for Crosby:

Renaissance Group offers unparalleled financial, investment and management expertise in high-opportunity emerging and frontier markets around the world.
Our focus on these markets sets Renaissance Group apart from traditional finance and investment institutions. We have a proven ability to build businesses, intermediate capital, provide value-added strategic advice and manage assets in these markets.

Renaissance Capital is the leading independent investment bank operating in Russia, the CIS, Central and Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia and other high-opportunity emerging and frontier markets. The Firm is an established and trusted advisor to government, corporate and institutional clients in its core investment banking offerings: M&A, equity, debt, structured solutions and derivatives.

Renaissance Credit, the consumer finance business of Renaissance Group, is a leading player in Russia's fast-growing consumer finance market, with more than 4mn clients and 11,000 points of sale.

Renaissance Asset Managers is a specialist Emerging and Frontier Markets investment manager with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe, Africa and Central Asia. Its range of investment funds covers a variety of asset classes, and caters for different investment horizons and risk profiles.

Renaissance Partners is the principal investment arm of Renaissance Group, managing an investment portfolio of more than $600mn in the CIS and Africa.

Renaissance Real Estate is the real estate business of Renaissance Group, managing real estate funds and offering professional advisory services for investing in the sector.


All imho and pure speculation on my part of course so please dyor.


Time to top up me'thinks.

[2magpies] 18/5/2011 10:37

well, the 'professional investors' bought in at 4p -- which isn't very far from here, so I would see that as some kind of a floor for the share price

The dramatis personae here are v interesting, to say the least. They are not here for a coffee and a chat!

imo, of course.

[spurberry] 18/5/2011 09:31

where will this stop?

I know no news potentially till the 20th June so maybe people are taking profits.

[napoleon111] 18/5/2011 08:07

RenCap on board, moving into another league now

[jojo_jo] 17/5/2011 10:52

PFP is interesting in its own right.
It would be great if all the major stakeholders could consolidate their holdings under the Crosby umbrella. Perhaps this is the plan. It would create a company with a much larger mkt.cap - possibly ieo £300m, of which minorities (PIs) would only have around 25-30%. However 25% of £300m is £75m, or nearly four times where we are now - and it would just be the beginning (of a move to a billion pound company over the next few years).
I'd like to see them bring in some obscure, ultra-cheap, unlisted or overlooked prospects which would instantly be properly re-valued after being dragged into the spotlight by their acquisition. The main stakeholders will, individually and/or collectively, have identified companies like this already, so we can expect some major share price enhancements when the introduction and takeover announcements start coming through.
Patience is needed. This is not going to happen every day, or week. There will be big spikes followed by periods of consolidation.
All purely imho so dyor.

[napoleon111] 16/5/2011 14:42

jo-jo have a look at pfp, a few ties ;-) imho

[jojo_jo] 13/5/2011 16:33

PB - Yes, that looks interesting.

[patboy] 13/5/2011 15:23

Jo JO
have alook at LHD got 20000b of oil per week due this dec/jan