Conduit Share Discussion Threads

[danieldruff2] 08/6/2016 11:58

Difficult to believe it won't get taken over at some point, maybe they're waiting for the result of that ghastly Brexit vote before making a move!

[rivaldo] 08/6/2016 11:55

Holdings RNS just out - Artemis have bought another 535,000 shares in CRE. They now own 9.18m shares, or 15.64%.

Together with DBay they now own almost 44% of CRE.....



Cheers madengland.

[madengland_] 08/6/2016 10:01

Looks like market agrees with you Riv. All the best

[rivaldo] 08/6/2016 09:18

A full year dividend of either 4.4p or 4.39p is fine by me as a roughly 4.75% yield at this price :o))

The results are pretty decent imo considering the slow H1 with only 4.98p EPS. H2 produced 7.04p EPS, which annualised would bring over 14p EPS.

The most recent forecast for this year is consensus 12.08p EPS, with a 4.4p dividend.

That's a P/E of just 7.7 and a 4.7% divi yield at 93.5p.

This H1 should be in line at worst imo given (1) the football Euros, (2) the US elections, (3) the Euro elections with ICM heavily involved, (4) the operating cost reductions introduced last year and (5) the new client wins last H2 in partiuclar, including Vodafone, Sony Mobile, BA, Weetabix etc where marketing campaigns should start to be implemented this year.

[joe say] 08/6/2016 08:38

Neither have I and personally I don't think you can round a dividend by its very nature

Even more odd when they choose to quote diluted EPS to 2 decimal places - if you had the choice in rounding just one of these two surely it would be the latter?

[markie7] 08/6/2016 08:19

Both. It is rounding. I've never seen rounding on a dividend before though

[joe say] 08/6/2016 07:51

re: Dividend

Dividend para - final dividend of 3.0p

Per Note 8 - final dividend of 2.99p

so which one's correct?

[madengland_] 08/6/2016 07:32

Riv.....would you want another acquisition? Careful what you wish for.Pretty unimpressive results I would say. Pressure to mount on BB

[rivaldo] 08/6/2016 07:26

Results are out, and are ahead of expectations.

The headline 12.04p EPS compares to forecast 11.3p EPS, and the 4.4p dividend is right at the top end of forecasts.

The goodwill write-offs are non-cash and were already signalled.

And CRE is now in net cash, with a £1.4m cash pile. Perhaps an acquisition or two to come.

Incidentally, CRE's top 20 clients have an average 10 year retention rate (I got my 10 and 20 mixed up earlier!) - still highly impressive.

The CEO says the business is in "good health", signalled by this paragraph:

"Particularly positive is the growth in business from clients completely new to the Group and its agencies. These brands, which make up 63 per cent of the total annualised new business revenue, provide good opportunity for future growth. New business wins in the period include CRM strategy for the Vodafone Customer Value Marketing account, an appointment as Sony Mobile's global lead digital strategic agency, Creston Unlimited's appointment as British Airways' CRM and data strategy adviser, the local marketing of Bosch Home and Garden, and the CRM and digital strategy for Weetabix."

[danieldruff2] 07/6/2016 20:24

Volume many times above the average, day before results, hmm!

[toffeeman] 06/6/2016 17:29

Riv - I respect your posts but.... average 20-year client retention rate?!!! I think not

[madengland_] 06/6/2016 15:57

Good luck Riv. If it drops to 80p I will review

[rivaldo] 03/6/2016 10:05

Results are next Wednesday, which we know will be in line with expectations and with a £1m cash pile.

Consensus forecasts are:

last year : 11.3p EPS, 4.2p dividend
this year : 12.08p EPS, 4.4p dividend

Given the average 20-year client retention rate, and the blue chip client base, I'm positive CRE will be taken over at some point. In the meantime the divi yield, cheap fundamentals and decent prospects for the year ahead (Euros, Olympics, US elections, Euro elections) mean I'm happy to hold.

[toffeeman] 31/5/2016 13:20

Business model doesn't work. Central organisation adds zilch to what are small agencies which are too small to add value to the whole.

[madengland_] 31/5/2016 12:32

Just reviewing a few numbers.....so since taking the helm, BB has presided on a small rise in anticipation from around 120p to 160p.....then the reality of his strategy delivered 90p. 2 years in the seat.....no green shoots......time to leave Barry

[madengland_] 26/5/2016 15:48

I know I go on like a broken record but the way to make money on CRE is to buy when very very ridiculously cheap. That might be 80p.....but it could be 60p.

[its the oxman] 26/5/2016 13:23

Guess people are wary about the outlook here and next update. Tempted to take a position but chart suggests this could yet slip lower.

[madengland_] 19/5/2016 19:36

Riv it's never a buy at pretty cheap imo

[rivaldo] 17/5/2016 12:22

CRE have already confirmed they'll hit forecasts for the year just ended, so it's looking pretty cheap. Consensus forecasts are:

last year : 11.23p EPS, 4.25p divi
this year : 12p EPS, 4.5p divi

BB has imo already shaken up the company somewhat successfully post-DE, with the process continuing.

CRE has always been illiquid, and a few sells have affected the price disproportionately.

The more so now since the two large buyers now have well over 40% between them.

[madengland_] 17/5/2016 12:09

Ref long term holders......how long? This is where it was 10 years ago!

[coul909] 17/5/2016 10:48

Madengland;
Thanks, with another fall this morning to a low last seen in Feb2014, the market clearly takes your view. One for very long term holders or gamblers hoping for market action?

[madengland_] 17/5/2016 09:24

Well the long view is Barrie Brian has continued the age old tradition set by Don Elgie of delivering no return for shareholders.The long muted synergy strategy of buying bums behind desks and then expecting all these companies to drive synergy does not actually deliver any tangible long term returns. The only synergy is that it lines the wallet of the incumbent CEO, CFO with rewards in the form of salary and options for deals that make the shareholders nothing much apart from an ok divi for holding a stock in a cyclical business. Cre oscillates between cheap and very very cheap and does so for good reason. I would expect a board shake up at some point, followed by a few disposals and a strategy to concentrate on a core business. I would say buy when we hit very very cheap. That might be 80p, will personally review then.

[coul909] 17/5/2016 09:00

More than 20 Trades yesterday, some quite large, compared to the norm of 4 or 5 trades per day. This one is strange, with an MC of £56M, profits in excess of £9M, cash of £1M; not many shares manage good figures like this. The reaction to the warning earlier in the year for Q4 seems overdone, but then sentiment never was logical. Any thoughts out there?

[markie7] 16/5/2016 16:07

that's a big drop right there...

[madengland_] 13/5/2016 15:15

Hmm Riv, looks like Cre board is just you nowadays buddy! I reckon if this drops to 80p I will Hoover a few up.