Crest Nicholson Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 04/4/2016 09:51

Sold a few more at 557p to raise funds for something else.

[salpara111] 30/3/2016 12:55

Any time I try to "trade the dips" it never ends well but this would have been a great opportunity.
Given that it has traded sideways for almost a year I am willing to wait and see if it can break the 600 line this time.

[1gw] 30/3/2016 10:11

Just taken the profit on my 10th March purchase, selling at 561p.

[aishah] 17/3/2016 09:36

HSBC Initiates with a BUY rating and sets 800p target.

[wilkie_hk] 16/3/2016 11:23

Looking at the charts, anyone who set trading limits at the round numbers of b.500, s.550 would have bought in 4 times in the last 7 months and would be close to closing out their next sell. I set the limit at b500p 2 troughs ago and topped up and thought about trading my top up at 550p, but held on as they overshot this limit. It would be naïve in the extreme to believe that anyone could judge repeat trading to these fine limits, however anyone lucky (as that is primarily what it would be) to have set these limits would be looking at a very decent profit.

[salpara111] 11/3/2016 08:40

As someone who lives in central London it is clear that there is a serious oversupply issue when it comes to one bed flats priced upwards from £500K.
It is clear that Berkley homes are most exposed to the £1M and over market but equally the fact that £1/2M seems to have become a "Normal" price for a one bed flat is a serious problem as most of them are not bought by Londoners and when the foreign buyers leave there is a serious hole left behind.
I have held Crest for 2 years so am happy with my gain but it is clear that the market is not willing to re-rate the house building sector which means sideways trading for the foreseeable future.

[gp1948] 10/3/2016 17:26

Speedsgh - yes, apologies for the misinformation - I quoted the figures for 2017 instead of 2016. Still outstanding value though.

[speedsgh] 10/3/2016 16:36

gp1948 - consensus forecasts for CRST for current FY ending 31/10/16 are for dividend of 27.41p giving yield of 5.6% (based on 505p offer). This rises to 34.48p for FY ending 31/10/17 giving yield of 6.6%.

[gp1948] 10/3/2016 13:06

1gw - the final results which were issued at the end of January were very positive and nothing's changed since then. The whole sector seems to be in the doldrums and there's a bit of uncertainty about the EU referendum as well, which is a drag on the share price. CRST represents excellent value for money IMHO, being on a P/E of 8.6 for the year to Oct 2016 and with a forecast dividend of 6.7% for that year.

[1gw] 10/3/2016 10:09

Well that's me in for another chunk at 506p, hoping for another bounce off about 500p even ex-div. Also hoping for a decent AGM statement next week.

[gp1948] 10/3/2016 09:21

CRST ex-div today I believe, which would explain some of the fall.

[1gw] 04/3/2016 11:01

Another significant fall in the average number of shares on loan reported by Euroclear for February:

Nov'15 27.0m average sol
Dec'15 21.9m
Jan'16 21.0m
Feb'16 17.9m

[gp1948] 11/2/2016 17:14

Bought some of these at the close at 512.5p
Projected EPS for the current year = 59.7p, putting CRST on a P/E of just 8.6
Expected dividend for the current year to 31Oct2016 = 5.3%
Despite announcing good results and prospects about 2 weeks ago, these shares were down 6.6% today.

[1gw] 08/2/2016 14:38

Managed to buy back the "transfer" part of the 29th Jan sale at 5.53.

[wilkie_hk] 04/2/2016 16:31

Of late; the market goes up, CRST goes down, the market goes down CRST goes up. Not complaining as the trajectory trend is up and I'm confident we will re-base at 600p in the coming months.

[1gw] 01/2/2016 08:10

Nice start again this morning. Perhaps should have held my nerve a bit longer on the top up holding and the attempt to transfer...

[1gw] 29/1/2016 14:26

Goldman reported to raise target slightly from 750p to 755p and to keep on conviction buy list. Probably explains some of today's strength.

[1gw] 29/1/2016 09:42

Just taken some profit at 5.59 - partly because I want to move them from 1 account to another - so looking to buy back if they dip again.

edit - and sold some more at 5.60. This was the tranche I bought at 5.03 looking for a "technical bounce" off 5.00. I think I've had the bounce now so I won't be greedy.

Crest still the 2nd biggest individual stock holding in my portfolio.

[montyhedge] 28/1/2016 14:28

London sales slump 19%. According to Bloomberg.Stamp duty to blame.

[1gw] 27/1/2016 09:31

Good reaction from the brokers according to the N and P summary, with Barclays Capital, Jefferies International and Deutsche Bank raising their target prices:

675 Buy -------- Peel Hunt (26th Jan)
650 Overweight - JP Morgan Cazenove (27th Jan)
676 Overweight - Barclays Capital (27th Jan)
740 Buy -------- Jefferies International (27th Jan)
536 Hold ------- Deutsche Bank (27th Jan)
??? Buy -------- Beaufort Securities (27th Jan)

[1gw] 26/1/2016 20:41

A good quote from the Jefferies analyst on this cash return plan...

'Anthony Codling, an analyst at Jeffries, said: “Crest threw a spanner in the works today, suggesting that with them, you can have your cake (growth) and eat it (dividends). Most UK housebuilders have chosen one route, growth or dividends, whereas Crest now offers both.” '

[1gw] 26/1/2016 16:39

The call is well worth a listen if you want some reassurance about how management see the future.

One other particularly interesting slide is number 22 "Progressively returning cash". Here they look at the anticipated cash return over 5 years (Crest's FY15 to FY19 inclusive) and calculate that it is anticipated to be equal to 30% of the Crest market cap (as of 14th January). They have also attempted to compare Crest's anticipated cash return with that from other housebuilders (BKG,PSN,BDEV,TW.). According to the estimates they have made Crest comes in at the top of the list on this measure (cash return over the 5 years as a % of the 14th Jan market cap). While the cash return in FY15 (last year) is at the low end of the scale (relative to the comparison set), it is more competitive in FY16 (this year) and is at the top end of the scale in FY17-FY19.

[1gw] 26/1/2016 14:39

Just listening to a replay of this morning's call (slides and link to audio on Crest Nicholson investor site).

CEO very upbeat in my opinion.

Institutional PRS gets an update:

"Institutional PRS gaining traction; third scheme in solicitors' hands and additional schemes being brought forward on Strategic and Public Sector sites"

(slide 12)

[aishah] 26/1/2016 13:37

Excellent results.

The FTSE 250 housebuilder Crest Nicholson has glided past forecasts with a 32 per cent rise in pre-tax profit to £154m in the year to October 31.

Sales revenues jumped 26 per cent to £804.8m, while completion volumes rose eight per cent to 2,725 homes, writes the FT’s Judith Evans.

The housebuilder will reward shareholders with a final dividend of 13.3p a share, to be paid in April, which amounts to a 38 per cent dividend hike for the full year as total payouts hit 19.7p per share.

Crest Nicholson is one of the minority of housebuilders seeking significant volume growth: it wants to deliver 4,000 homes and £1.4bn of revenue by 2019, and has recently opened new divisions in London and the Chilterns.

[salpara111] 26/1/2016 11:46

May have spoken too soon!
Not complaining!