Crest Nicholson Share Discussion Threads

[srichardson8] 26/1/2016 08:10

which they do as far as I can see? On unchanged net profits the annual dividend would rise from the current 19.7p (x2.5 cover) to 24.6p (x2)by the 2017 financial year to yield 4.8% at the current 510p. Revenues and pre-tax are a bit ahead of the only forecast I can see (thanks wilkie)and the pipeline looks solid. The historic p/e is x10.6. Predicting collapses in housing markets has not in general been a winning game though it is important for builders to go into weaker trading with stronger balance sheets and downturns do of course occur.But supply/demand just on population stats must be extremely positive even if prices will level off in a less benign economy.I will run this.

[rhatton] 25/1/2016 10:23

Subdued ahead of results tomorrow. Hopefully they meet expectations.

[montyhedge] 24/1/2016 20:57

Near me a new house has been discounted by a certain builder, who never discount because it devalues the brand.Down from £8.5m to £7.5m. Brown stuff about to hit the fan for luxury house. Up to £1.25m are ok.

[altom] 23/1/2016 19:15

I understand that the bulk of Crest T/O is in houses about £1-2mill. There appears to no softening of this market. Overseas buyers are losing some interest in houses over £5mill which does not affect Crest much. I think we have at least 5 years of good growth to come here, or maybe 10 !
Any other serious opinions please. Not just "the end of the housing world is nigh".

[prettygreen] 21/1/2016 22:33

monty - change the record please

[montyhedge] 21/1/2016 21:35

Be careful, London property boom seems over. Just look at the developments. London looks like a building site.Overseas buyers not there. Bubble will burst in my opinion.

[wilkie_hk] 21/1/2016 19:36

Well, I'm not expecting a mass exodus from the UK. That being the case we still have a chronic housing shortage and housebuilders are in the enviable position where the government are pressuring them into meeting this demand. We might see a flattening off in prices but there will still be juicy profits to be made. There is nothing to suggest that we won't achieve the forecast 2015 figures (from digitalook.com), which puts us on a PE of 11.6. Even if we flatline from there, the price should be maintained at the current level on a PE of 11 ish and yield of 3.5. However, unless there is some real economic woe to be announced, I expect us to continue to grow. We have taken more than our fair share of a fall this year, but that's the market where sentiment can turn against a sector for a while. Not a time to sell I would suggest. Hopefully it won't last for too long.

Year Ending Revenue(£m) Pre-tax (£m)EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield

2015-10-31 796.46 151.35 47.77p 11.6 0.5 22% 19.34p 3.5%
2016-10-31 958.60 189.34 59.07p 9.3 0.4 24% 27.32p 4.9%

[montyhedge] 20/1/2016 15:58

2 bedroom apartments in London forget it.

[montyhedge] 19/1/2016 06:32

It's over for builders, in London, properties over £1.5m hard to shift.

[speedsgh] 18/1/2016 14:03

This post is from Apr 2015 but worth digesting again...



montyhedge - 7 Apr'15 - 07:52 - 1130 of 1339 0 0

Broker Peel Hunt reckons that, based on its forecast of 70% earnings growth over the next three years, the reduction in cover will result in 130% per cent dividend growth over the period. That means a payout of 19.2p this year, 28.3p in 2016 and 33.2p in 2017, equivalent to respective prospective yield of 4.5% per cent, 6.6 per cent and 7.8 per cent.

Looks great for growth in shareprice and superb growing dividends.

[rhatton] 18/1/2016 12:03

1gw.. thanks mate!

[rhatton] 18/1/2016 11:37

I picked some up just now too.
What are the forecast eps wise for next week?

[rhatton] 18/1/2016 11:35

I picked some up just now too.
What are the forecast eps wise for next week?

[1gw] 18/1/2016 11:28

That last one wasn't a good short-term move, but today I couldn't resist buying some more at 503p. Now hoping for a technical bounce off 500p.

[1gw] 14/1/2016 15:12

Just picked up some more at 527p there. Not sure what's driving today's fall. Notwithstanding doom and gloom forecasts from RBS and Questor, it seems to me we're once again in a "lower for longer" rate scenario which ought to be good for the housebuilders.

Not long to go now until the results.

[1gw] 14/1/2016 11:06

Big drop in average shares on loan for December according to Euroclear.

Aug'15 28.4m average shares on loan
Sep'15 26.3m
Oct'15 25.1m
Nov'15 27.0m
Dec'15 21.9m

[aishah] 12/1/2016 11:08

Jefferies reiterate BUY. Ups target to 719p from 620p.

[montyhedge] 04/1/2016 17:18

Guys game is up for any property over £2m.

[wilkie_hk] 31/12/2015 14:39

Not a bad finish to the year relative to FTSE. FY results due in 4 weeks, so hopefully this will provide the fillip required to see these over £6 and see a decent rise in the divi to make these worth holding for the medium term.

[montyhedge] 15/12/2015 16:28

Guys 2016 the game will be up for Housebuilders, buy to let finished, anything priced over £1.5 m hard to shift, stamp duty killing things.

[1gw] 14/12/2015 09:39

Another part of the 8th December action revealed today.

Barclays below reportable threshold (3% or 5%?). Their previous reported position as far as I can see was over 7% (7.77% as of 18th May) and even just prior to this transaction they are reporting 17.1m shares (c. 6.8%) so that's quite a reduction.

According to my records, that leaves us with major disclosed positions of:

12% Standard Life
12% Ameriprise
5% Ruffer