Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[yasx] 02/10/2016 19:00

Incidentally, where is MRSI with his forecast of a significant move higher - chuckle chuckle.

[yasx] 02/10/2016 18:59

The results reinforce the view that the business is doomed - margins will continue to get squeezed. Period.

Target: Nil pence.

[paleje] 02/10/2016 17:36

Castleford,

I accept your points, all except the conclusion that it cannot work. I think it can, the supers are full of their own problems well enough publicised, they can't control quality on fresh foods especially meats, the big suppliers take the pee out of them all the time getting in on cheap prices but iffy quality often under hung and or poorly reared animals. Smaller stores with 'real' butchers can steal a march there. I think it's purely a question of getting the balance right.

My son is up the management pole of one of the majors so I do have some knowledge of their operating difficulties.

Interesting hearing of your dads business and the changes caused by the industrial background. Needless to say I hope I'm right here, not you:) but I accept there is risk, less downside than upside though imo.

[knigel] 01/10/2016 18:25

Why do people need to spend so much time posting on investments they have no plans to hold? What shares are you holding guys?
Like it or not - many made a killing here over the last few years (ie. me) from sub 10p all the way to 90p - perhaps some here are bitter they lost out then so want to crow now? TBH I don't see too much upside here either at the moment BUT I also cannot see the share price falling much further unless there's another profits warning - so have got back in but did wonder if it may be best to sit and wait for further developments as cannot see too much movement over the next few months - unless someone decides to make a bid....

[hvs1] 01/10/2016 18:13

this worked well enough in a localised area but was never going to be a growth business via a rollout format

supermarkets are in a ferocious competitive war and trying to operate in that same arena was an accident waiting to happen, craw was a successful big fish in a very small local pond and now is a goldfish in a sea of sharks

anyone who didn't see this coming was madder than a mad person who's just got even madder by eating a plate a raw meat riddled with mad cow disease, lol

[aleman] 01/10/2016 16:55

Just a non-holding lurker who is curious what stategy CRAW will adopt, I thought you might like to know that the biggest supermarket in CRAW's territory is probably Morrisons and they have their own abattoirs and pie factories. The price they pay for animals will still be subject to the £ but it does give them a slight edge.

As a non-holder, I would have thought CRAW would copy succesful butchers that have added value products - hot sandwiches, cooked pies and pasties, lunch pizzas, curry and stew mixes, quiches, hog-roasts (sell add-ons!), deli counter, etc. I would have thought it was mad to try sell low-cost low-margin bulk meat packs against supermarkets. Is it really that hard to find a successful local butcher and copy them? (Bear in mind local tastes in added-value products will vary a bit. Scottish butchers sell haggis and scotch pies! Not everything sells everywhere so local flexibility is needed.

[hvs1] 01/10/2016 10:42

everybody always craw's about how well they've done

selling the whole lot at circa 80p would have been more efficient, handing back profits whilst saying - it's ok cause i've already made a bundle is wasteful.

craw had its day, recognising that and exiting in advance is a much better strategy

[extrader] 01/10/2016 10:36

Hi hvs1,

Actually, it was the horse-meat scandal a few years ago that prompted a few savvy investors to look for a quoted butchers offering 'known source' meat that could be upscaled.

That was the genesis of CRAW as we know it today. People turning a challenge into an opportunity, as opposed to naysayers and doom-mongers who add little/no value.

ATB

Discl. : In from 15p, topsliced at 68 and 94, bed and ISA'd remainder at 54. CRAW could fall to zero and we'd still have 3 x our starting capital.

Have a nice day.

[hvs1] 01/10/2016 10:24

need to sell a shed load of blister packs of past its sell by date horse meat to keep this from the knackers yard, lol

[optomistic] 30/9/2016 17:32

The shares failed to attract a single buy today but luckily not overpressured on the selling side. Fingers crossed for more interest next week...in the meantime I keep buying the product and no complaints there :-)

[paleje] 30/9/2016 16:25

Didn't Paul Scott spend a substantial number of years as a retail accountant? I would have thought he knew it pretty well, perhaps not food but the same principles surely.

[pogue] 30/9/2016 15:06

To be fair he did say they would have to cut margins as have the Board. They have to rewind the business a bit, they increased margin and found they lost customers simple solution.
Regards the cost of chicken that's a red herring. Their competitors in the UK will have the same problems with increasing costs due to the falling £ so all Crawshaws have to do is go back to the margins they were on at the new prices.

[castleford tiger] 30/9/2016 13:23

Paul nice chap but failing to understand Retail.

Sorry Paul but in my opinion its folly trying to make money here.

Please don't believe the "buying from uk bit" either.

Most of the deals come from Africa/Europe and the USA.
Lets take chicken its costing 300p today v 270 pre brexit.

They cannot get sales back without destroying ,margin.

tiger

[optomistic] 30/9/2016 12:45

Tried to open that link, but it means signing on...then my Firefox browser crashed :-/

[bprofit] 30/9/2016 11:40

Did anyone see yesterday's write up on crawshaws from Paul Scott:http://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-29-sep-2016-ptsg-craw-asy-ftc-152072/

[playful] 29/9/2016 16:11

Thankfully they still have the previous CEO to help them so that’s something positive.

[pogue] 29/9/2016 10:42

hvs1
you are very good at looking at charts clearly perhaps instead of telling us the past you could have told us at the time? Hindsight is always easy and on these boards usually attached to an annoying timewaster. I shall save my time reading your pointless posts by filtering.

[hvs1] 29/9/2016 08:48

hmmmm, "the chart was ok till august"

really??? the chart was not ok when it failed to make a new high from the previous one @95p in nov. 15, the chart has not been ok from june 16. coupled with the fact that it was sat on a ridiculous valuation

its a chain of butchers shops not the latest hi tech gadget maker

the valuation is more appropriate for now but their problems aint over yet

do they sell blister packs of beef curtains per chance, lol

[castleford tiger] 29/9/2016 08:42

We have already re-introduced a locally driven, value-led promotion strategy which is bringing more customers in store, although these activities require short term margin investment and will therefore impact full year profit expectations

What that says to me is we can stop LFL falls by cutting margin. Cut margin make no profit.

Welcome to the retail world.
Tiger

[castleford tiger] 29/9/2016 08:33

CRAW Numbers First LPA second

t/o year est 42 million 21.3

Profit est -400k 1.50 million

EPS -.50P 11.50P

Dividend tbc 1.25p

Market cap 27 million 17.10 million


That's why I am investing there and not here.

tiger

[knigel] 29/9/2016 08:30

Well the share price has already fallen 60% this month so perhaps results factored in?

[castleford tiger] 29/9/2016 08:24

holding up better than I thought.

still not my bacon.
tiger