Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[invisage] 26/9/2016 07:57

YASX this is a pile of poo which David Stredder made a lot of money off and then recently lost a chunk.

[knigel] 26/9/2016 07:22

I will wait for the next results/update before giving out my own "bullish scenario". Remember the share price was over 80p just a few days ago - so perhaps the time to short this share has been missed... and people are still going to continue to eat meat!

[yasx] 26/9/2016 00:51

My target at CRAW remains single digits, and the distinct possibility in due course of nil pence.

If any bull wishes to outline the optimism, then please do so (with hard facts and metrics). Rest assured, I will respond in not inconsiderable detail and expose the flaws in any bullish scenario. Ebullience will soon evaporate....

[yasx] 26/9/2016 00:49

MRSI,

Indeed, that was Marvelman on SPL at 80p in March. This is what he wrote last week when the price crashed to 10p, acknowledging that he had sold as a result of absorbing my sagacious contributions - though he remains particularly ungrateful given I made it plainly clear SPL was a dud:


SKIL PORTS @ LOGISTICS. much needed (New indian port) - SPL

marvelman - 17 Sep 2016 - 11:52:35 - 8393 of 8563
Yasx

You have been on filter by me for many months if not a year. I have noted your torrent of posts since the RNS and have now looked back and discovered your very personal attacks. It seems that your informative and interesting posts come with razor wire packaging for those who choose to engage with them. I have admired and respected your diligency but have always felt you had an agenda which persuaded me not to trust your motives and therefore in my case diluted the effect of your arguments. It is certainly the case that your elequent and informative posts along with others (and what seemed to me to be the blooming obvious) helped pursuade me to exit many months ago.

[yasx] 25/9/2016 22:48

Knigel,

* I reckon margins will be squeezed going forward
* Lower cash generation will mean the cash pile will dwindle
* The ongoing rollout will dent the cash cushion further still
* Taking on debt/issuing equity will be the noose that tightens around the neck of this Company

Incidentally, can anyone explain to me why/how Brexit had such an immediate and substantial impact on meat sales? I really cannot see how that is the case.

This business has significant difficulties, and Brexit is not one of them.

[battlebus2] 25/9/2016 22:03

This thread has decended into a farce, knigel we had similar soothsayers four years ago and look what happened then.

[knigel] 25/9/2016 21:15

yasX - why the one post when seven will do? CRAW is in a far better position than when it was around 4-5p when I first invested here around four years ago. It's ok having a share price target but 0p is just laughable - of course any company can go bust, especially in retail but I cannot see any reason for this company not continuing to trade for the foreseeable future...

[yasx] 25/9/2016 20:25

Back next week.

[yasx] 25/9/2016 20:24

Finally, if that offer of attending the next Mello is still on, then let me obtain a ticket - I will put up a masterclass in taking to task the Exec Directors during any Q & A session. Delightfully articulate yet modest, coupled with a razor sharp mind, the gracious chap revels in tearing apart overly hyped outfits.

[yasx] 25/9/2016 20:22

How many of these Mello investments have actually resulted in a sustainable business that went on to produce yoy sustained increases in revenues, growth, improved metrics, dividends and so on?

The list of failures from what I recall is spectacular - Plus, Tungsten, Inditherm and many others. This was one that was holding up, but it was only a matter of time.

Anyway, i will leave readers to it - some like to plug tickets to events, but I prefer investing. it is my view that if an investor is good at what he does, there is no need to spend a disproportionate amount of time organising and promoting any sort of event. But, each to their own.

[yasx] 25/9/2016 20:18

Needless to say, none absorbed his banal efforts...thanks to this gracious chap:


yasX 22 May '15 - 10:06 - 1324 of 1890

It is like the hard sell to old ladies from purveyors of rags to riches stories - the principles are the same. Get in now while you can, be one of the fortunate ones to be part of a well established outfit, unique opportunities, endless testimonials apparently from attendees, and so on. What next for the Mello Madness? Grant Shapps as the guest speaker trying to promote his abject offerings with a dossier of spurious testimonials?

I think it is safe to say that ExTrader's attempts to lure in others form here to the Mello and flog a few tickets has backfired spectacularly. But then, this gracious chap tells it as it is.

Novice punters will not be taken advantage of when the gracious fellow is around.

Bravo!! A chap of impeccable moral rectitude - a rarity in these times.

[yasx] 25/9/2016 20:17

All,

Readers ought to be aware of the same faces plugging the same outfits. Take ExTrader, who submitted a comment in post 4313. This chap follows me around and, I had the misfortune of him appearing on another (unrelated) thread to promote the virtues of an investment in CRAW. He was sent packing along with his endless references to Mello, the post reproduced below:


Extrader22 May '15 - 08:51 - 1319 of 1890 0 0
Hi yasX,

My last post, you'll be relieved to hear.

Feedback from an attendee at a recent Mello event re Crawshaw's (Epic : CRAW), the butchers chain that has just acquired the former COO of LIDL.

It's a useful write-up of CRAW (I hold) , more to the point, it suggests a more constructive and collaborative approach to investing than we see here.

Watch and learn ! I think you say.

Ooops. I wrote up the Mello event, then came onto the board to cut and paste it and realised there is a much better write up from JIC!

I'll post it anyway, as I've written it and there might be a nugget or two that's different in my write up. Here's what I wrote, but I would urge you to read this much better, and less fluffy write up.

======= CRAWSHAWS ========

Here's a brief flavour of Mello in Beckenham this week. Much has been written about the chain of butchers in the North, indeed it's proved a wonderful investment for people who saw them present first time around.

As ever, this is merely a brief flavour of the evening - and usual disclaimers apply. I've probably misheard things and this could be inaccurate.

Many people have asked themselves the question "Where do I want to be in ten years time...". Maybe when you're getting close to a milestone age. As he hits 40, Former COO of Lidl, Noel Collett, closed his eyes; did he see himself rolling out discount meat stores in the North of England? "Probably not", he mused on Monday night. Indeed he'd never come across Crawshaws. But when he came home, after a day "kicking the tyres" at Crawshaws, his wife could tell from the grin on his face that he was going to take the job. She promptly presented him with a cool box, to transport home Crawshaws' bargain steaks.

Noel has been Crawshaw CEO for ten weeks and gave an impressive talk at Mello in Beckenham on Monday. He joined Lidl as a graduate, learning German to help him become their youngest ever board member at 27. He helped treble the number of Lidl stores in the UK. A lot of that growth came from introducing fresh food to the supermarket. First fish, then meat and more recently in store bakeries. After 17 years with Lidl, he's moving to hot baguettes and discounted pork.

He felt the number one thing to get right was HR. Property is relatively easy to acquire - it's who you put in it that matters. He was keen to avoid "dilution of knowledge" and the rollout will be "stress tested" before they really scale it up. Noel mentioned a really interesting strategy with management he had at Lidl. Managers might feel that area managers had it easy, just wandering about with a clipboard. To get the job, managers had to have quality succession planning so they could prove someone could take over and their existing store wouldn't fall over. Then they had to open a brand new store successfully, again with succession planning and then a second one successfully. "Do all of that and we'll make you an area manager." Which encouraged entrepreneurial zeal in the team and also that sharing of knowledge and training. I suspect he'll do something similar with the Crawshaws roll out.

A recent acquisition of 11 Gabbotts stores has helped the company with their growth plans. It sounded to me like there weren't any other such deals on the horizon and the rest of the growth was going to come organically. "We'll open 15 stores next year.". "Everything's in place funding wise". Someone asked about the geographic spread. It seemed like the plan was to grow out around the north, since the distribution centres were in place. Stores are profitable from Day One so should "contribute to the rollout". He described the next 30-40 stores as "rich pickings"

Whilst supermarkets slap Union Jacks on a lot of their meat, Noel felt that the competitive advantage for Crawshaws was sourcing meat from around the world. I think he said that there were 315m tonnes of meat produced worldwide. 5.3m tonnes in the UK and the total Crawshaws need at the moment is 12,000 tonnes. So he really didn't feel supply would be an issue as the store rollout programme ramped up.

Thanks as ever to David Stredder for organising the event. I spoke to one newcomer to these events recently, who just couldn't believe the access to management and quality of the questions. Everyone is friendly and has a mutual interest in investing, so don't be shy.

[yasx] 25/9/2016 19:51

Bprofit,

The problem in part is this:

"and with the supermarkets very recently launching some aggressive meat promotions.."

Crawshaw will soon be rendered moribund - the first sign of any recession and this goes under as margin get squeezed. The Company has already tried to put the blame at the doorstep of Brexit, but, the reality is Brexit has had virtually nil impact on the consumer - it is for now a myth permeated by the media.

As soon as consumers tighten up as a result of contractionary forces in the wider economy (and at some stage it will happen), this will be unable to withstand the burden.

Target remains nil pence in due course.

[knigel] 25/9/2016 18:42

I think we can sum the pending results as a) poor results 25p b) decent/good results 45p - I doubt the share price will stay at this level for long.. either way.

[bprofit] 25/9/2016 18:02

Yasx, I disagree with your assessment and many others think crawshaws still has a bright future. Results due on the 29th, so we will learn a lot more very soon. Personally I would not be surprised if there is a good recovery when they are published.. But only a few days until we find out.

[yasx] 25/9/2016 16:12

The highs of 80p, i opine, will never again be seen.

[yasx] 25/9/2016 16:11

MRSI,

You do not learn - you were spouting the same on SPL (I did warn readers of the SPL thread at 80p that the target was single digits this year. The likes of Davidosh were promoting the virtues of an investment at SPL. A lot of commonality with these shares - same investors, same Mello presentations, same dud outfits....

[yasx] 25/9/2016 16:08

Sell any dead cat bounce is my view.This will be in the 20's by year end, if not lower. Currently oversold, but the trajectory is down. Temporary price action to the upside will stall.

[yasx] 25/9/2016 16:07

davidosh21 Sep '16 - 10:50 - 4294 of 4315
It will not be popular for some of you but I can advise that Crawshaws Noel Collett the CEO and Alan Richardson the FD will be presenting their results to investors at my Mello dinner event on Monday 17th October in Beckenham. You will need to email me if wanting to attend as places will be limit

--------------------------

Crawshaw have (well, my reading of it) tacitly conceded that the business model is not sustainable. It does not require a presentation to ascertain this - but, given this was the darling of the Mello Madness events, all being well, I might just turn up to give the CEO/FD a jolly good dressing down after they have dressed up to novice punters their promotional twaddle.

Unlike some, I tend to take apart egregious guff from Directors - if figures/metrics/projections do not stack up, I make clear why. Crawshaw is to me dead and buried. We will see, but if Davidosh can let me have details as to how to purchase/obtain a ticket, then he will witness first hand how a sagacious investor deals with baseless projections.

The CEO/FD should be ready for a jolly good roasting, unless they can persuade me to the contrary - I doubt it.

[master rsi] 23/9/2016 16:53

I selected - CRAW - early this morning to go better on the "UPS" thread ....

Master RSI - 23 Sep '16 - 09:23 - 371 of 387
UPS
CRAW 34.50p ( 34/35p )

Large fall more than half after the small profit warning, look like the bottom has been reached and buyers
are back again. They have an experienced management team, able to rectify the situation as they said are doing.
Improving Level 2 also as the bid is being now supported by 2 MMs
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