Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[mr hangman] 20/9/2016 13:40

There is always one smug "i told you so" poster

[multibagger] 20/9/2016 13:34

In happier times, I queried with the post....

"20 Nov '15 - 07:01 - 3551 of 4262 0 0 Edit

Fantastic news for holders :)

I'm trying to understand the gravity defying shareprice uptrend and the justification of a PE in the seventies, given the profit margins being quite small. What am I missing / don't know that is propelling the CRAW share price ?

TIA :)"


In Nov 2015 the price had lost touch with reality and now the sell off is overdone. Needs to time to stabilise but not likely to get back to lofty highs for sometime IMHO.

[battlebus2] 20/9/2016 13:24

Very true garbetklb but let's not have it so one sided, if you didn't know the company and read the last 100 posts you'd think CRAW was about to go into receivership.

[garbetklb] 20/9/2016 13:16

Worth pointing out that David isn't giving advice. Obviously (like most of us) he gets enthusiastic about some of his shares.
I've looked at many of David's introductions - I've liked some (inc Crawshaw), not liked others. But it's always been my decision as to what to do and I've never felt like moaning at him - or anyone else who has pointed me towards a share to investigate.
By all means shake your head at any of the companies - and at the whole concept of Mello & meeting company managements. Some people get a lot out of meeting management (inc me); others believe it clouds their judgement and prefer other approaches.
BUT, please don't slag of other investors simply because they have different views & methods from yours. David puts a lot of work into Mello and it's very much appreciated by a section of the investing population.
Personally, I like to read posts having a different view to mine (eg Castleford Tiger in this case) as there's more chance I'll learn something from them than from someone with similar views to mine.

[battlebus2] 20/9/2016 13:11

Well said davidosh about time someone posted a contrary view to the plethora of negative views.

[mr hangman] 20/9/2016 12:33

There is a simple answer, If you guys don't like Mello companies, Don't buy them

[typo56] 20/9/2016 11:11

davidosh, whilst Mello isn’t really my thing you clearly put a lot of effort into it and have had some great successes, which have hopefully been profitable for your followers.

I've not looked at your stats before. As with tipping sites, I think it's very difficult to get a realistic measure of performance, and if you look hard enough you can usually find some metric to back up the point you want to make.

I'd query the accuracy of some of your stats. For instance, when BVM became TST wasn't there a 1 for 16 consolidation? If so, TST should be showing a loss, not a 1,181% gain!

Also, do you include all companies who have presented at Mello? E.g. I thought you once had MBL Group (MUBL).

Something to consider with the Mello stocks is that many are quite illiquid. This means that getting in or out of shares at the same time as other people are trying to do so can be difficult and expensive. It could be argued that if you adopt a ‘run/add to your winners, cut your losses’ approach then your performance could be better than the average gain. However, as night follows day, nearly all companies eventually turn and come out with bad news (as happened here at CRAW). When this happens with illiquid stocks it can wipe a significant chunk off your gains. This means, if you’re adopting the run/add to your winners approach, you need to accept that the price you exit at may not be as favourable as the ‘price now’, because you’ll still be holding when the ‘unexpected217; bad news comes out.

Mello stocks are high risk and I consider them as a kind of ‘bagger or bust’ portfolio - great if you back the winners, not so great if you back the losers. I note that the median return is something like 8% pa, which doesn't sound that huge, given the risk. I think they’re fine as 'stocking fillers', as part of a larger portfolio, but I probably wouldn’t sleep so well at night if I were fully invested in them.

[1iniesta] 20/9/2016 10:14

Like I said onwards and upwards

[optomistic] 20/9/2016 09:30

hvs1 20 Sep '16 - 08:49 - 4255 of 4255 1 0 (Filtered)


yes c ya hvs1..

[castleford tiger] 20/9/2016 08:31

DESPITE continued deflation, supermarket sales increased, though only some of the Big Four are capitalising on this growth according to Kantar Worldpanel.

An increase in grocery sales of 0.3% is benefiting Morrisons, but Asda is still struggling with consumer spend down 5.4% for the 12 weeks to 11 September 2016.


JUST ANNOUNCED

[castleford tiger] 20/9/2016 08:19

Fair few posts here but will add my own information.

5 kilo imported ( cheapest ) Chicken fillets is this morning 3.00 a kilo in 5 pallet lots.
15.00 therefore is cost price. the 19.99 is the normal price.

The problem with a stand alone food store selling just 1 part of the supermarket range is that every know and then the Multiples come out all guns blazing in that sector.
Currently its cheaper to but some fruit and veg in all the big boys than in the wholesale markets.
The demise of fruit shops continue.
I am across this every day its part of my business and you cannot compete with loss leaders.
Morrisons started with Meat.........leg of fresh lamb at 7.50 and agin this is 25% BELOW COST.

You cannot build a chain to take these guys on. They have 10000 lines to squeeze margin back but the key lines Milk/Bread/Bananas/ Meat/ Beer keep getting trashed.

That's why the milkman selling a single product got wiped out.

If they go out of town meat outlets and add value to meat lines
Kebabs / stuffed chicken breasts/ burgurs etc they have a chance.
selling 5 kilo of chicken at cost is no good.They don't have the range to recover that.

Now they stated the simple facts.
They reduced offers and sales fell. However margin was better.
So you are down to cost base and retail is not cheap.
Now they are coming back with lower prices to regain lfl.

Problem is since Brexit everything imported is 10/15% up in price as we in the uk cannot produce chicken or Pork at European prices.
Lower wages /land values etc being key.

I disagree that we are close to the bottom.
Opening 15 shops does not impress me unless they can make a profit.

This has been a good story and has done well.
For those still on the bus I would consider getting off.

Before anyone asks its my sector retail that's why I follow this.

best Tiger

[knigel] 20/9/2016 07:37

Will be interesting to see how the share price reacts today - I think most will agree that at 80p+ the share price was expensive (in hindsight) - the debate now is whether the share price is looking fair value/over sold or still too high.. I agree the next LFL will be key - at 35p I will be back in for a small investment GLA

[yasx] 19/9/2016 23:51

Another Mello Madness disaster unfolding - and this was perhaps the only stock that I can think of from the Mello bunch that actually managed to head higher in the first place. Another dud in the form of SPL was exposed by this gracious chap some months ago pointing out in considerable detail the plethora of red flags and it is essentially game over for holders of equity of that company.

As for this stock, to me the model is simply not one that is sustainable in the long run - there may be a transient bounce at some point given the RSI appears heavily oversold, but this is not an attractive investment, not by any stretch of the imagination.

The Mello Madness or some such is a useful platform to gauge for those looking to exit an investment - needless to point out, there is no need to attend, simply review the list of companies lined up to present, wait for the morning after the event and sell without any hesitation those companies who the evening prior offered streets paved with gold and forecasts of jam tomorrow (many will probably be seeking to tap retail holders for cash by issuing equity). It is always wise to wait until the following morning since invariably the mugs will be buying after soaking up the overly ebullient drivel the night before.

I have not reviewed all the companies that have attended, but those I have stumbled upon have invariably been nothing short of an accident waiting to happen. If any reader has a list of companies set to appear, then do let me have it. I can safely say it is rather unlikely I will be holding any of that rubbish, but, such a list would be useful to benefit from. Bullish write ups from the Mello are, I opine, a robust contrarian indicator.

I might have it wrong, but I rather doubt it.

DYOR

[brando69] 19/9/2016 23:15

TEN BAG MAN trawling knackered sausage thread in hope of persuading a few desparate punters to pump up one of his sorry dogs like Tern or Cloudbuy

[davidosh] 19/9/2016 23:00

A few quick facts...

Crawshaws are not in financial problems....they may have suffered with a negative like for like figure against strong comparatives in August and also been hit by supermarkets ahead of the Euros with offers on wider goods such as beers and pizza which then affects overall meat spend at competitors but they are not long term changes to customer demand. The value offering of Crawshaws will come through over time and the model of opening more factory style outlet stores will help increase margins ad profits.

It is not a zero sum game when Crawshaws provide shoppers with additional discounts or one off bargains. The fact is that Crawshaws have done that including the Christmas savings stamps for years but if you look back over every period for the last three years they have actually been increasing the gross margins so margin is not an issue. Look at what was said in the trading update....

These factors persisted through to the end of the half year period, resulting in a further reduction in like for like sales for the half year, although this was partly mitigated again by a further strengthening of gross margin.

The growth story has not changed....they are still going to open new stores but now there will be a mix of high street, shopping centre and most importantly the better margin and lower cost roll out. They stated...

(We are particularly pleased with our new standalone factory outlet store format, which significantly outperforms the high street format on every measure, as do our more established three mature outlets. Fit out costs are lower per square foot, property and running costs are very low, EBITDA margins are excellent, and without a food to go element the operation is even simpler to roll out. Added to that, being out of town with parking, and therefore more of a destination, factory outlet stores are not so dependent upon local footfall.)

We are therefore currently reviewing our store roll out strategy with a view to adding more of these types of openings in our overall new store opening pipeline. We have one further site at an advanced stage, and another in the pipeline.

Those who are claiming total doom and gloom here are wide of the mark and we probably need to see the next period like for likes in the busy Christmas period and also how the factory store openings can speed up from here.

[supernumerary] 19/9/2016 21:01

opto - the problem is it's a zero-sum game for a shareholder - what you gain in the bargain meat, craw loses in the zero-margin sale.

Lot of people being wise after the event here, but problems were foreseeable from the very beginning - selling cheap cuts of meat to hard-pressed punters is no way to get rich quick (and maybe not even slow).

[bigdeal1] 19/9/2016 20:51

Nothing wrong with taking advantage of a Crawshaw bargain! Plus it's Yorkshire. I also see a long and bright future for Crawshaws! This last year has been a difficult time for all in the meat industry, with Christmas now looming this price must be a bargain.

[ten bag man] 19/9/2016 20:30

Optomistic: you come across as a poor person.!

The Second World War has ended and green shield stamps were withdrawn 30 odd years ago.

[pogue] 19/9/2016 19:43

E_d_f
why are you wasting your time posting on this board. You have no shares and are not able to short you said so why bother? I always like to know the reason people post on boards they have no interest in. Usually the fail to reply to this question I hope you maybe more honest.

[knigel] 19/9/2016 19:30

E-D-F, just to prove you have no agenda - can you point to at least one positive in your review of the financials? Thanks

[bprofit] 19/9/2016 19:11

I agree with martinthebrave, now is the time to get in if you want a bargain. This company still has excellent long-term prospects.

They set out to open 15 stores during the last 12 months and are on track to achieve that recently reporting 8 new stores in June. More have been added since and on their website they currently have massive recruitment drive with 33 positions listed. Not the actions of a company in difficulty.

hxxp://www.crawshawbutchers.com/careers

[optomistic] 19/9/2016 19:02

I was in Leeds Kirkgate market today where Crawshaws are represented and today was the opening day after a market refurbishment.
One huge bargain 5 kilos of chicken breasts for £15. Unfortunately I was too far away from home and on a hot day the chicken would have suffered. No problem because they have it in my home town @ 5 kilos for £20 so I am in for that as planned, quality chicken breasts at that price takes some beating and I always stock up when it comes on offer.
Also spending £20 you get a £2 saving stamp which goes on the card and when you get £46 the card becomes worth £50. I buy stamps in between purchases to fill the card which make the pension go a bit further :-)