||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Cozart (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|cr4zyness: Cozart climbs on bid talks
Date: Tuesday 04 Sep 2007
LONDON (ShareCast) - The share price of fast growing medical diagnostics company Cozart reached its highest point in almost three years after it revealed it is discussions with a potential buyer.
Discussions with a third party interested in making a recommended cash offer for Cozart are at an advanced stage, the company said.
Cozart's full year results are due to be announced on Thursday, 6 September. The company moved into profit at the interim stage, posting a pre-tax profit £400,000 in the six months to end-November 2006, compared with a loss of £200,000 in the corresponding period of 2005. Turnover rose 109% to £8m from £3.8m.|
|cfb2: hi2eddie: Those trades will have been going through during the start of the day/end of the previous day and only just have been reported; the MM reacted by raising the share price by 26%. When the trade size is >10 times the NMS the reporting can be delayed by upto an entire day. The strange prices will be due to the time of the actual trade.
That a predator is prepared to pay 50p upwards can only be seen as positive. How much higher they are prepared to pay is the interesting question.
As shareholders we've had hints that business has been good, with the odd additional contract and sustained organic growth - previous to this offer my estimate for the company was a share price of around 40p with a big question mark over the value of the new Philips/Cozart tester (I sold a number of shares around 45p). I think we're about to see how much someone thinks the new product is worth.
|wengerb: There are a limited number of possibilities here. The company is entirely under the control of the working directors, the non-execs and allies of the company. Therefore the strategy of the directors of the company must be to optimise their own position. The key directors, the brothers Hand, are fairly young and need not be preoccupied with retirement. At the current share price each of the Hands would stand to make just less than £8m. That's a lot of money but no a stupendous sum.
Therefore the options are threefold:
1 The discussions will fail.
2. The dscussions will lead to a sale at a price much higher than the current share price.
3. The discussions will lead to a sale at a price around the current level because the prospects for the company, especially the Cozart/Philips joint development, are not nearly as rosy as we hope. The directors may know something that we don't (which is both possible and not necessarily an indicator of any malpractice).
It's an indication of the market's low interest in minnows such as Cozart that so few shares have been traded post the announcement.
If the discussions are not with Philips they will have to be with a party of which Philips approves. The Philips agreement with Cozart is bound to have included a change of ownership proviso.|
|wengerb: Cr4zyness. Don't let your enthusiasm for Cozart cloud your judgement. I have a fairly large stake in the company and all I'm saying is that there are good reasons not to expect an imminent re-rating. Is an 80% rise from Jan 2006 stagnation? Is an 8% fall from the highs of Feb 2005 growth? I first bought into Cozart in Feb 2005 and I've added several times since.
You point to many areas of potential growth and you're correct but, bear in mind:
1. Cozart currenty has zero presence in the US and many UK companies have lost their shirts attempting to take on the US. A licensing deal with a US company might be a way in to that market.
2. Cozart's product is not rapidly being taken up by more and more police forces. Many police forces see other priorities for their stretched resources.
3. Drug testing laws might well change but as yet there's no sign of any particular governmental enthusiasm for such a change.
4. The Emirates contract was a good win but it's peanuts spread over 3 years.
5. The Home Office contract represents maybe a 5% growth in Cozart's annual revenues.
My message is that one day Cozart may become a far more valuable company and will probably be bought by Philips but be moderate in your hopes and expectations for an imminent further rise in the share price.|
|wengerb: The announcement yesterday of the next phase of Cozart's relationship with Philips was extremely welcome but should not have been a surprise to anyone with any interest in Cozart. Back in late January 2006, Cozart flagged up an 18-month life for the first phase of its joint development agreement with Philips and earlier this year reiterated its confidence in the programme moving on time into the second phase. The most unwelcome news would have been any fly in the Cozart/Philips ointment.
I'm a very firm believer in Cozart having a very successful future and I have a holding in Cozart that reflects my faith. However, I can't see any particularly strong impetus for a re-rating of the shares much above the current level for a pretty long time to come.
The forecast profits for Cozart this year are around the £1 million mark. If the current share price holds, come the 4th. July Cozart's market capitalisation will be around £47 million. That implies a pretty fancy p/e ratio.
Cozart has said that we can expect the launch of the Cozart-Philips drug testing product in 2009. It may be a while after that before sales reach significant volumes.
We may see good organic growth in Cozart over the next couple of years but the market gets easily bored with companies offering "jam tomorrow". Don't be disappointed if the share price stagnates for a good while.|
|cfb2: ABUBRYN: The option share price is normally chosen from, as appears to be the case here, the highest share price for the past year. The condition for granting the option is the earnings per share, which is independent of the current share price (it's simply the profit / (weighted average shares) ).
For the moment, let me assume that a commercial deal is signed with Philips so the number of shares ~= 105m. The lower 1.75p EPS would be a profit of around £1.8m. Using a sector PER of 22x that'd be a share price of around 40p. If the profit margins can be kept at around 50% then that's hardly challenging. However, an EPS of 7.25p would be £7.6m profit and relate to a share price of £1.60p. Something I believe that would only be achievable with some roadside testing contracts.
|cfb2: Following a quick scan, looks to me to be a fine set of results.
Turnover looks to have exceeded Numis' forecast (07F year end £14.4m)
- actual figure is £15.4m assuming doubling of interim turnover and ignoring £0.3m from acquisition assets, obviously conservative! (£7.3m in previous 6 months).
Following dilution through acquisition, EPS is 0.55p which is in-line with forecast.
Profit margin, something I have been concerned with, have only dropped 8% to 50%. Understandable as SpinReact products are now online.
So ignoring the potential of the Philips venture, the results justify the current share price of 38p.
Given the bullish comments about the new biosensor system I think there is a lot more to come - but I'm thinking long term, not what the share price is doing in the next couple of weeks. If there is another rapid share price beware that Philips have options at 45p 
|wengerb: Etarip: no, I don't think that CZT should be looking to change its PR company. CZT employs Financial Dynamics, a company with an excellent reputation. Whilst I'm on the subject of advisors, CZT's broker/financial advisor, Numis, also has a very good reputation, especially in the Health Science sector.
But your specific question raises a more general point. I assume that most of we few who read this BB are optimistic about CZT's prospects but feel always slightly starved of insight into what's going on in the company. We've invested in CZT and would love to know whether we're going to see a return in the short, medium or long-term. Me, I'm in for the long ride. I don't believe that the really significant potential will begin to appear until late-2007, with news of the Phillips joint development.
Why doesn't the company keep us better informed? Why doesn't the company seem to be more actively massaging its share price? I have a friend who's an FD in a company rather similar to CZT and he once said to me "If this was a private company in which we'd all invested, we wouldn't worry so much. We know what we want the company to achieve. We know the company's competitive advantages. We should all relax and let the company get on with things. The problem is that if you're a small, developing company we all, especially the outside investors, think that the share price is a predictor of whether or not we'll succeed. But it isn't. We all know that but we can't stop worrying that it might be."
For obvious reasons, a company has to walk the tightrope of keeping its owners, the shareholders, informed of progress (or lack of it) whilst not spilling the beans to the company's competitors. CZT tells us (something of) what's going on twice a year and is under an obligation to tell us more if, between those reports, the company's fortunes take a turn for the worse or better.
Forgive me if I seem to be telling everybody what is perfectly obvious but the point I'm trying to get to is that many companies, and I suspect that CZT is one of them, do not give a very high priority to its short-term share price. As a company manager, you don't want to greatly upset your shareholders but you hope that the shareholders realise that the directors' main responsibility is to maximise the ultimate value of the shares, not to waste time or money trying to move the share price from 34p to 40p when there's not a lot to shout about.
Nearly 50% of the CZT shares are held by two key directors of CZT (the brothers Hand) and by a non-exec. director. The non-exec has continued to invest large sums in CZT. These people have a hugely better informed view of CZT's prospects that we'll ever have. We outsiders have the option of trusting these people or of getting out of our investment. As I mentioned yesterday, why would the key directors of a company raise the issue of possible sales developments in Germany and the US if they didn't have a reasonable faith that such developments will occur? I'm not being sarcastic when I say that when writing up the prelims, directors don't (I hope) say "This report looks a bit thin. What can we stick in to bulk it up a bit? I know, Germany and the US are big markets, let's hint that we might be doing a bit of business with them? After all, if we never get anywhere in Germany and the US, nobody will ever remember that we floated the idea."
CZT places huge store on the Phillips project. I don't know whether Phillips approached CZT or vice versa but I do know that one of the world's most successful players in the medical equipment market is very actively engaged with a small company outside Didcot. The directors of CZT know how frequent are the visits to Eindhoven. They know how much resource Phillips is putting into the project. The bosses at CZT must have a feeling for how well the joint development will play out. When it was first announced, in January of this year, the initial development time was set at 18-months. That's a pretty rapid development project and almost half the time has already elapsed. I'm not suggesting for a moment that I have a good reason to believe that the Phillips joint development has a high likelihood of succeeding. Joint developments often fail. What we do know is that the main shareholders in Cozart (who just happen to run the company) do seem to be optimistic about the outcome.
One might ask the question; if the project's going so well now, why wouldn't Phillips simply buy CZT tomorrow? I once asked a similar question of the strategic boss of a drug development company. He explained that great big companies are often happier to leave the risk and reward to smaller partners. Smaller partners are more energetic and nimble at driving development projects. If the big company ends up paying much more to acquire the smaller company, it's still a better bet for the larger.|
|jonno6: ho ho ho...a 1p drop in cozart bid price and biswell appears on the thread with prophecies of doom. there was a single trade of 5000 shares on the day...maybe he overlooked the ftse and dow dropping 57 and 107 points as well?
"I try to help these folks but as thry say 'you can't lead some nags to H2O etc.....'"
as you like your adages i think a more appropriate one would be 'you cant teach an old dog tricks'.
it is plain to see that you are not posting here to help people...you have cluttered up the thread with discussions about unrelated shares...you have misunderstood what the home office science branch are doing and repeatedly posted the article with the primary intent to annoy people...you have cluttered the thread with invalid technical analysis.
ive already corrected your technical trend analysis
and youve produced another chart with exactly the same mistake. i see youve also posted a technical analysis of blr on the far thread with the same mistake...with a spread of almost 20% that is likely to cost you if youve followed your advice with your own money!
let me look at the chart that you have just given your opinion on...
your comment in your post and previous posts show that you dont know what an sma signals or what it is used for. an sma(100) on a chart is the average share price over the *preceeding* 100 days. so if you are looking at sma(100) you are looking at the trend over the past 100 days. the larger the value the further back in history you are looking and whilst it may help you to understand the trend it takes the same number of days in the future before it shows you what the share is doing today. chartists choose smas with 200, 100, 50 and 22 because they approximately show the trend over the last year, half-year, quarter and month.
"50 and 100ma's now turned downwards also. "
so your statement is saying is that over the past 50 days and 100 days the share price has on average begun to drop...which is not surprising because there was a drop in the share price between april and june.
to help you realise why your statement is so stupid let me tell you that the sma(50) will turn upwards in about 3 months because of the increase in share price over the last week...are you telling that that is supposed to be seen as positive in 3 months? what a load of rubbish.
"one can see why all the news flow/RNS's have been coming out to try to get the price up.... it has not worked."
there were two announcements to the market. the first was an announcement that analysts were being invited to the spinreact site...which was because they were launching something new. the second was the same news that the analysts were told.
what were cozart supposed to do? maybe they should have kept quiet about launching new products...which will affect revenue...and hoped that noone found out so that they werent fined for withholding information to the market?
"As far as I know it is being tried by one police force in the state of Victoria , Australia."
thats because it is a *trial*...dont you think it would be expensive for everyone involved to have a trial throughout the whole of australia?
"Home Office spec to come out before xmas .... so within the next 5 months"
according to you the home office are suddenly going to switch to using this new device that hasnt been designed or tendered for or manufactured or tested in april 2007...dont you realise how stupid that makes you sound?
cozarts results are likely to be coming out at the end of september...thats two and a half months from now...i know which of these two events are more likely to happen.|
|jonno6: cfb2...you dont need a chart specialist to see that what biswell has posted is a load of rubbish...im not surprised that proper chartists make fun of him.
this is the first chart by biswell...
for some reason he places importance in the rate of decline of the trend line whilst neglecting to point out that the previous trend...trend line 2 on my chart...was actually steeper. what is of importance is the volume of shares...ive put this on my chart...an increase in volume with a falling trend is particularly bearish...you can see the volume is dropping off on the chart below. this works in reverse...when the share price is rising an increase in volume is bullish...common sense really...
free stock charts from ADVFN.COM
here is a link to a technical analysis website so that you can verify that what i am saying is at least from a consensus of chartists..
next we come on to support and resistance lines. the idea is that at certain prices there is resistance and support levels...any line is support when the price is falling towards it and the same line will offer resistance if the share price is below it and rising towards it...below is a chart which shows these lines for cozart over the past 6 months...a bounce from the 24p support line...with increased volume...would be known as a double-bottom...which is a trend reversal bullish sign. you will notice that these lines almost always fall on exact pennies...that is because the market makers move cozarts price 1 penny at a time!
free stock charts from ADVFN.COM
the thinking behind support and resistance lines is that when someone buys at a particular price in a rising trend if he sees the price fall again he is most likely to sell when the share price reaches the same level that he bought at...that is the theory...more likely is that chartists have become used to searching for these on a chart and base their trading decisions on them...thus they become self-fulfilling.
here is a link to a technical analysis website so that you verify that what i am saying is at least from a consensus of chartists...
i dont have the energy to continue analysing the mistakes in the charts in as much detail but i will point out that trends should be examined using logarithmic scales rather than linear scales...as biswell has done...something that has exaggerated the supposed support line failures...although i have not found a reference to a charting book or website that says that any credence should be given to something so minor...chart analysis is not an exact science.
then there is the third chart...i dont know what that is supposed to signify...although the downward trend line has been drawn cutting through the peaks...it is supposed to be above...as shown on my first chart...maybe he thinks the price is supposed to fall below his line until the price hits 24p? what if it does? what if it doesnt?
most importantly a comparison with the overall market has been ignored...you'll notice that the recent downtrend with little volume follows the overall trend in the market over the last 3 months..
free stock charts from ADVFN.COM
personally ive always been suspicious of someone who puts too much faith in charts...it usually means that they havent learnt how to make sense of a companys financial reports|
Cozart share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange