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Corpora Share Discussion Threads
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|portland's sale this morning seems to imply a VERY pessimistic outlook for london property - gearing of only 11%, and selling at a discount property leased to Facebook!
From the FT...
West End property company Great Portland Estates has sold Facebook’s new London headquarters at a discount to its latest valuation as the group prepares for a property market downturn.
The freehold of Rathbone Square, Great Portland’s largest ever development project, has been sold to a company owned by the German investment group Deka and real estate investment trust WestInvest Gesellschaft for £435m, roughly 4 per cent below its most recent valuation.
The group, seen as one of the most resilient UK property companies during the 2008 financial crisis, will hand back the £110m capital return from the project to shareholders through a special dividend.
Great Portland said the deal would ensure that the company “retains the significant financial flexibility created over recent years as it looks ahead to a continued period of market uncertainty”.
Once the sale is complete, Great Portland’s loan-to-value ratio will stand at 7.3 per cent before rising to 11 per cent when the special dividend is paid. These figures mark a fresh low for the group’s borrowing, which in September stood at 22 per cent.|
|Looked at AEWU skyship?
Priced fractionally below NAV here, but c. 8.4% yield which looks just about covered, low LTV (c. 19%).
Perhaps a reasonable one for income seekers...|
|SKYSHIP - Thanks for the link to the Telegraph article. It is of course likely to end in tears for many. Not sure how long it will go on for (usually longer than we all anticipate) but once the bubble bursts many will doubtless be left with their trousers round their ankles. Aimho|
|Thnx to langland on the LSR thread for posting the link below:
Private investors ditching Buy-to-Let and moving across to buying tertiary commercial property. A trend we noted last year, but that article adds some meat to the bone. Good news for LSR specifically:
|An update on the chart showing the Real Estate sector underperforming the FTSE. The chart and the MACD indicator suggest we could be seeing a turnaround:
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com|
|Good news for provincial property - esp. Manchester:
Virgin Media, Vodafone and Eversheds seek larger offices in Manchester.
The Manchester office market is poised to start 2017 with a bang as a trio of major requirements totalling 240,000 sq ft launch.|
|I've added PILR to the Header
|Forgot to post this here. This Update includes an interesting analysis of the state of the UK property Market:
|This chart clearly shows the sector underperformance since 1st September:
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com|
|I'm surprised that BBOX isn't included in the header; has been doing well of late and over the last year.|
|Employment figures today are good with more employed-so no loss of jobs yet caused by Brexit so no effect on commercial prperty occupation levels.
In fact what could happen I think, is that due to our ability to have more trade deals with other countries we may see INCREASED demand for offices as other countries set up here.
Room for thought.
It will be interesting to see when more up to date info on the market comes out.|
|Thanks Speedsgh. I have the impression that most of the south east and south coast are doing well. Most of the rest of the country not so well|
|Sleepy - south coast|
I hope that prices will recover but i really don't see this, and would love to be wrong.
Some UK open ended funds are still closed for redemption. Yes those institutional guys that were providing "liquid" instrument secured on illiquid collateral.
Senior debt finance margin has increased, and lenders have reduced appetite (just look at costar, egi, property week, real estate capital).
I guess the only positive is that financing rate (swap rate) went down with Boe, and corporate bond purchase may (?) include bonds secured by REIT, implying cheaper cost of debt to them.
I dont know if the uncertainty caused by Brexit decision will have an impact on demand. Brexit will.
The shiny blue logo of the EMA (European Medicine Agency) has been removed from the building in Canary Wharf, that building will be vacant and add to the existing dark space available in this office location.
A number of companies cannot wait for some politicians to provide some guidance, they are and will act reasonably and hedge their footprint across Europe. Noone like uncertainty you cant price, except politicians and that usually how they get elected across most of the developed countries.|
|Speedsgh - thank you for your comments. Which part of UK are you in?|
|loobrush - You could well be right. Feedback from surveyor was certainly bullish. Will be interesting to see if the much-discussed uncertainty caused by the Brexit decision does actually have an effect on demand for occupancy within the sector or not. Probably too early to tell yet.|
|Well I woudn't see it that it is reaching a top, far from it.
Property shares and funds have been hammered after Brexit and all are well down from pre Brexit levels.
What this indicates to me is that the expectations of a large drop in propert values suggected by anylists will not happen and that there are numerous share price bargains in this sector and once a few weeks pass we will be seeing the same people say BUY.|
|Interesting feedback following meeting today with a local chartered surveyor with 25yrs experience of the industrial sector. Said he had never seen it so buoyant, with both rents/capital values rising strongly. Several units on speculative developments are being bought off-plan. Is this a sign the market is nearing a top?|
|Source: The AIC
The valuations on property investment trusts, the price discount and yield look eye-wateringly attractive.
When the prophets of doom foresee a certain disaster, it is time to get interested.|
|It is my view that the mark down in commercial property funds generally is way overdone.
There has not beem a massive amount built over the last ten years generally (except maybe in London). Apart from the major difficulty with all property of getting planning permission the cost to put up a new commercial property has become much more expensive which has not led to any oversupply..
Why have prices dropped in these funds-purely because the pundits said they would but reality in current sales seems to show very little change if at all.
Indeed for foriegn buyers they are cheaper now.
Things are settling down after the Brexit vote, which is still 2+ years away,and I think during the next couple of months we shall see that the commercial property market is carrying on as normal and the prices will return to previous levels as investors realise that. Indeed I expect that will lead to Bank shares rising as people realise that no debt provisions will be necessary.
Commercial property shares generally are in bargain territory and I've bought a few.|
if i see any interesting articles i will post them on here|
|Spob - thnx for that - makes quite positive reading & explains the recovery in many propcos - LMP & NRR particularly impressive as IMO they usually look too expensive in any event!|