Cradle Arc Share Discussion Threads

[ricardo125] 18/3/2015 20:46

Anyone can buy companies with investors money. I could have spent the money buying macdonalds franchises and making a profit. At the moment it is clear the directors have been the only winners here. For investors its been a disaster. I am waiting for the annual to see what direction this is going to end in.

[pavey ark] 14/3/2015 09:02

Dashcroft70, I think you'll find that a number of people here have simply moved on.

CRA ,much to the disappointment,anger and frustration of some original shareholders,is simply not the company of old.

Current investors have recognised that it is now a specialist engineering company with a rock solid contract base and with the help of the actions you have described it is moving into profit.

This frustration and selling by CET enthusiasts has created what I think to be an amazing situation regarding the share price and even with what I consider to be a constant steam of very positive news the share price anomaly still exists.

[itchycrack] 13/3/2015 22:27

...and?? Its just sensible management. Its called agility, adapting to the environment in which you operate, you can shrink as well as expand. Its a prudent approach here to reduce costs where appropriate.

[dashcroft70] 13/3/2015 22:15

Things are really not looking good for this Corac-CET thing.

There is big trouble in the water and a good reason their Slough site is closing and relocating to somewhere much much smaller, much smaller.

" Portsmouth: becomes the base for the Group's high technology build, test and assembly functions.

Hmmm, we'll see how that pans out, when people in Portsmouth who have never ever built anything CET have been building have a go at that.

-- The Group's technology design and development team are to be relocated to a new site just outside London, where the design team will continue to explore new applications for Corac's intellectual property."

Technology design and development team relocating, MUCH smaller team.

...where the design team will continue to explore new applications for Corac's intellectual property... what's left of the team, sure.

[septblues] 13/3/2015 06:45

should expect some royalty income to feed through in 2015 which is one way flow from a cash point of view with no need to use cash to build fixed assets or working capital

[pavey ark] 12/3/2015 09:16

As things have gone rather quiet I though I'd try and liven us up a bit with the announcement that I think the company may have achieved break even,in cash flow, in H2.

The broker's figure for yearly loss prediction was £3.35m (verification would be helpful here).
The H1 loss was £2.1m
The EBITDA figure was £700k less at £1.4m (H1)
If CRA were to meet the brokers target then the loss would be £1.2m and possible EBITDA figure of $500k loss but the company has said that they were ahead of market expectations so it should be less than this (how much ?)
These results include a one off legal settlement of £250k (to central costs)so this brings us even closer to break even ( in my way of thinking but perhaps an accountant may not agree).

With a greatly increased order book,better margins from HTT, contribution from recent acquisition and recent reorganisation savings I expect things to improve further.

When they start generating cash I expect the cash pile to be used as this is not a very efficient way to run a company and the market is giving CRA little value for having £9m in cash.

[pavey ark] 07/3/2015 09:22

This link is specifically for naval technology but not difficult to see civilian applications for Texvent and smoke control.



If the North Sea is to have any future the older rigs have to be replaced or certainly upgraded.

"The 3rd generation O2 production system, known as the Combined Oxygen Generation System (COGS) has been successfully proven at sea and will become the backbone of the ACI business for the next 10 years, with service and refurbishment business potentially long after that.

ACI is exploring opportunities to transfer these technologies into other environments that call for clean air in confined spaces."

[pavey ark] 06/3/2015 16:39

Kiwihope,still no indication that you have put any effort into this but you would like me to look for my old posts then let you know where they are.
If you do decide to put any effort into valuing ACI may I suggest you look at order book, margin,customer base, similar companies. If you look at similar companies I suggest you look at their enterprise value over earnings as ACI would be sold debt free.
Good luck with your research and I look forward to hearing from you.

[kiwihope] 06/3/2015 08:48

OK Pavey, on what basis do you value ACI at £20M? If you have an old post explaining this please give me the number.

[pavey ark] 05/3/2015 15:39

Kiwihope,I know that the value has doubled or more than doubled in the past three years and especially in the last nine months.
I have explained this in detail before and not inclined to repeat it but by any measure ever used to gauge the value of a company then ACI is worth over £20m and you would be knocked down in the rush.
If you are prepared to give it some thought and dispute specific figures I would be more than willing to debate any aspect of my valuation.

[bullster] 05/3/2015 13:21

time.....price(p)....qty......value(£).....trade type
15:40:45 4.26 .....13,700 ....583.62 .......O
13:42:31 4.62 .....11,345 ....524.71 .......O
12:57:49 4.50 .....500,000.. 22,500.00 .....O
12:57:44 4.50 .....500,000.. 22,500.00 .....O
11:55:42 4.26 .....10,000 ....426.00 .......O
11:33:13 4.50 .....165,000 ..7,425.00 ......O
11:00:11 4.50 .....1,466 ......65.97 .......O

[timmbo] 05/3/2015 13:00

Interesting trades.....

[kiwihope] 05/3/2015 08:33

Pavey,

I don't know why you keep thinking that ACI is so valuable. Do you really think it's value has doubled in the last 3 years or so?

Let's face it. Corac has been a disaster for investors. Maybe some traders have done OK if they got their timing right, but for genuine investors it's been appalling. From the original float at 100p over a decade ago through every subsequent fund-raining the price has continued to get lower and lower. I'm not blowing my trumpet but I warned a couple of years ago that without CET the price could drop to 3-4p - and hey presto!

Some posters just could not see the technical risks involved. In the end the compressor products either just didn't work or were too expensive for the market. I'm sure the recent drop in oil price hasn't helped but I think this was probably the straw/camel rather than fundamental.

No, we have to face it - the chances of a good return for current investors is now zero (by that I mean anyone who bought at >10p or so). The best we can hope for is a bit of a rise if ACI and Co. trade well, or a blip upwards due to some good news or corporate event.

[pavey ark] 04/3/2015 21:02

I don't know about selling the company but I've said before ACI could be sold for £20/£25m+ tomorrow.
I expect a profit this year and having almost £10m cash is certainly not an efficient way to run a company so I expect acquisitions.
I have felt that the cash was required to get international orders as Corac was a small loss making company that didn't inspire confidence but with the large order book and a move into profit things could change so we may see a reasonably large purchase.
Contrary to the opinion of others I get the distinct feeling that this guy knows what he is doing.

[optimist] 04/3/2015 20:43

I hope your reading of it is right if he repeats it at Corac he should sell the company for over 40p a share ;)

[pavey ark] 04/3/2015 20:11

I feel like one of the "Time Team" crew here but did look back and found that Cartmell was brought in as part of a "highly regarded management team" when Vega got into trouble in 2001.
Vega had lost two large defence projects the shares had dropped 50% on the news and the CEO had resigned (sacked/pushed ?). This was the company that Cartmell took over.
Two years later IC said that he had "steadied the ship".
Two years after that IC tipped it as a buy and two years after that it was taken over for 280p/share.

Cartmell took over a company that was in trouble and was overly reliant on one off large contracts and had certain parts of the company that were certainly not performing.

If you were a shareholder at the time you could say that 280p was a poor reward if you bought at 400+p but it had dropped to an interday low of 167p before the previous CEO resigned and Cartmell took over.

Restructuring had to be done and the share price fell but was back up over 200p in two years.

Perhaps shareholders in vega should look at their 280p and compare it with what they would have got if Cartmell hadn't restructured.

[secretsqu] 04/3/2015 18:12

Check out the price of the shares when he took over at Vega. Then check the share price when it was sold.

Premium!!! Ha.

[goatherd] 04/3/2015 18:08

Laughing My Axxx Off

Horrible expression.

[secretsqu] 04/3/2015 17:30

Yes, we have seen it, particularly what he did at Vega Group. That's why some are concerned.

LMAO at his claims.

[zcaprd7] 04/3/2015 14:51

PC has done all this before, have you seen his CV?

[pavey ark] 04/3/2015 10:50

As I'm here because I consider CRA to be the most undervalued specialist engineering company I have ever seen I welcome any move that costs £400k(net) in the first year and saves £700k in subsequent years.
As the profits from the individual part of the company rise moves are now afoot to cut central costs which should further enhance prospects.
I have a certain sympathy with the original investors and this can only be seen as Corac now being an engineering company with CET bolted on (no pun intended)and it is not what some signed up for.