Compact Power Share Discussion Threads

[gran] 15/12/2003 16:01

Interims Due 16th? Is that right?

[magic198] 12/12/2003 12:57

Price up a bit, some good news looming?

[glenlivet] 09/12/2003 09:04

Guernsey Report available at
Check out Section 4 of the Executive Sumary.

Interims due out 16 Dec ?

[pugugly] 28/11/2003 20:07

GlenLivet:- Re your Guernsey link does not appear to be historical - only current paper (appears to be a daily update with no archives) Could you possibly summarise the damming consultant's report or if possible give a current link to the report.

I agree that if no orders soon looks like a cash problem - Real question however is:-
Does the product work - is it financially viable - and will anyone want to buy it?

Looks as though the views of this board are turning negative -

[katylied] 25/11/2003 20:15

From June 2003 Finals...

"...Despite the above delays we are pursuing at least three active prospects which we hope will enable us to make a positive announcement before the end of the year..."

Only a few weeks till end of year. Currently 16p(Bid)/19p(Offer)
and running out of time and presumably cash.

Previous Interims = 22/11/2002...

[glenlivet] 28/10/2003 13:36

KatyLied
I don't know of any on-line links to their Prospectus although I think you can still get copies from their office.

I agree that they look like they will need more funding to remain a going-concern. Even if they sell a plant, the real profit will not be secured until the plant is up, running and taken over by the client. If they got an order today, they must be at least 9 months away from securing customer takeover (and final payment - which usually releases a supplier's profit margin).

I suppose one option is for them to sell or lease out their Avonmouth plant to another operator.

Regarding Guernsey, I believe that the State approved the decision to proceed with an incinerator at the end of September, despite objections from some of the State Deputies and Compact Power's proposal. Check out to see a review of the decision process.

I must say that the consultant's report cited in the State Billet is quite damning really.

[katylied] 22/10/2003 12:41

GlenLivet

My research so far, suggests that rather than your 3 points (which may also be valid), the principal problem is that conventional wisdom still considers 'Advanced Thermal' solutions, to be insufficiently proven and therefore still intrinsicaly risky. Councils will (up to a point) go for innovative solutions, but typically, they are fairly risk averse. This is also (apparantly) reflected in the ability of Companies like CPO to get project funding. I have read that at this stage, the banks still remain reluctant to get involved with this kind of technology.

While many people do seem to recognise that Pyro/Gasification should be a lot better than any conventional mass burn plant, there is still huge opposition to 'incinertors' of any kind. Sure, a lot of that is by 'Nimbys'. However, the re-cycling 'lobby' also considers 'incinerator' projects often premature, where re-cylcling provisions are not already in place (and in this country, re-cycling still gets little more than lip-service).

The CPO system has not yet been used in a major mixed municiple waste situation. This is the type of contract they badly need, to convince people that their solution works, and is economic. In fact, my impression is, that they have now had to change their focus to smaller specialist areas, as their survival looks rather uncertain and they cannot wait forever to land that 'big' deal.

I suppose that last point, could be interpreted as management's failure to produce a viable business plan from day one. But I think that is a bit harsh. Most of their projects have encountered horrendus delays. I think they have had a lot of bad-luck with their timing. I don't think many people could have really apprieciated in advance just how bad the situation could get, with the likes of PFI, central/local government feuding and public nimbyism coming so much to the fore in recent years.

If you have not read this already, you may find it interesting. below is a report on an 'incinerator' project for Guernsey, CI. The consultants include a report on CPO. They conclude that CPO is not an option that the council should consider (at the time of the report) and their reasons. Meanwhile, delays have also hit that project. The CPO web-site now carries info that suggests CPO may yet be considered.

However, nowhere is there any indictaion that this Guernsey project will ever actually get started. Ironic, because the report (or maybe somewhere else I've read), claims that 'incinerators etc...' are currently a sellers market. Maybe they are, but it is a sellers market where nothing seems to actually gets sold, because in parallel, nobody seems able to ever get any projects finally signed off.





PS: Do you (or anyone) know of an online link to an electronic copy of the original prospectus? It is difficult for me to see just how badly the business plan has fared, without knowledge of what was originally promised. Sadly, I'm not optimistic about immediate prospects (which is a pity, as I like the company). They need a very substantial and fast ramp-up of turnover. Failing that, more funding (if possible) seems inevitable. Failing that, it is hard to see how they can get past the next (audited) full-year accounts as a 'going concern'.

[glenlivet] 21/10/2003 14:28

Bobhollis - I'm interested to know the basis of your comments about CPO having a great product and being a great investment proposition. They went to the market in April 2002 and took home £7.5m but have not delivered on the prospects they identified in their prospectus.

Regarding salesman performance - they are playing in a market that I understand is notoriously difficult. It looks like they have misled themselves (and shareholders ?) about the prospects in energy from waste. The fact that they have not yet secured a plant contract suggests that:
1. They are too expensive (others are cheaper) - maybe they need to cut down on the amount of "excellent engineering"
2. Their technology does not deliver the performance that clients require.
3. They're targeting the wrong markets.

Does anyone know how competent the management team is - what are their credentials in terms of technology development, projects development, plant contracts ? KatyLied you seem to have some confidence in the management team - basis ?

Regarding the Dumfries project, they were trying to obtain a waste contract from Shanks who are negotiating a PFI-backed waste disposal contract with Dumfries COuncil. I guess that project has stalled awaiting the conclusion of Shanks' negotiations.

Aye yours,
Glenlivet

[magic198] 19/10/2003 22:44

UKSA has a shareholder visit to CPO in December if anyone fancies quizzing company on the real issues, order prospects, cash burn rate etc. I hope to go, if anyone else is a member (only £25 pa)

[katylied] 19/10/2003 18:16

Been looking at this over the weekend. So far, I like what I see in terms of the company, management and product. But sadly, I reckon they will go bust. Not anyone's fault really, just the marketplace they are in (planning delays, public enquiries, council penny-pinching, politics...). A few years back, people thought Rail-Track a no-brainer. Easy to make the same mistake over municipal waste. But we are all older and wiser now, aren't we?

They need a big jump in income and soon. That is a fact. Where is it going to come from? Can someone explain, what on earth is going on with this Scottish Dumfries project? It was I believe, at one time supposed to be operational in early 2003. As far as I can tell, construction still hasn't even started yet.

[bobhollis] 19/10/2003 18:00

This is a great product and should make a great investment proposition.
Its time the salesmen start to earn their salaries......or we need to find some more effective salesmen.
World class engineering is not a business sector!

[magic198] 29/8/2003 14:47

Bit of upward movement recently, anyone know/speculate why?

[glenlivet] 21/8/2003 08:47

AGM today, anyone going along ? What news of business prospects ?

[gran] 11/8/2003 08:40

Good upward movement over the last few days. Good news in the pipeline?

[izziebon] 06/8/2003 14:07

Surely the basic prob is lack of significant sales; its still virtually product development work, is it not, and tie-ups with other development parties eg Spain recently.

I do think its at a recovery point now, sharewise, and there will be big sales to come when they do come.

Todays lift looks promising; does someone know something? It was just one big buy, wasnt it?

Theres a lot of resistance points close together as it recovers; it'll be one to hold for longer than usual, imho.

[charles henderson] 08/7/2003 14:00

Thanks Glenlivet

[glenlivet] 08/7/2003 09:51

Looks to me like the brokers were testing the offer price for clients keen to off-load.

If you look at the last 21 days, the value of purchases was only £26,000. This was only some £2,400 in excess of the value of sales. Price tested, get back up to the price over the last 12 months ie 18-20p.

My own view is that this is not a high profile, popular stock, otherwise volumes would be much higher. I expect that shareholders might be asking the broker to test the market so that they can decide whether to cut and run or stay and hold.

I know that marketmakers are obliged to make a market but if sellers don't want to sell and buyers don't want to buy then the price will stay fairly stangant and volume will be thin.

Regarding news ? They seem to have plenty of prospects but will any of the projects close before the current cash runs out (estimated as March 2004). Energy from waste projects are notoriously difficult to close.

[charles henderson] 07/7/2003 23:06

Compact fell strongly down to 11.5p
now its bouncing back up through 17p

Some bad news got reversed?

The trading pattern is all buy - so those who are in are still in

Anyone got any news?

[magic198] 17/6/2003 21:58

My digging indicates cash available for two plus years, so agree they will need to have signed up some decent cash generating customers by mid 2005 to justify further finance. I think they are ahead of the game with their technology, whether they are two early in this new market to make money remains to be seen. First mover advantage - maybe. Highly speculative, IMO these shares will either be worth nothing or 50p plus in two years, the choice is yours. I am in there but would not put my old grandma in 'em

[glenlivet] 16/6/2003 09:22

£3.7m cash at the end of March. An overall burn rate of about £285k per month. Looks like 13 months of life from end of March ie doomsday in about April 2004.

That doesn't leave long to close some of these projects in the pipeline. Also how soon before such projects deliver positive cash into the business ? So I'm left wondering what Plan B looks like. Anyone know ?

GL

[donnydave] 24/4/2003 08:39

TAKE A LOOK AT ASC - MBO DOUBLE BAGGER...

[stable] 14/4/2003 11:17

Hopeful announcement today.

[kevster] 30/3/2003 14:23

The above information may be of some interest,

Kevin

[stable] 19/3/2003 11:28

After the big sale yesterday which I believe could have been a 'clear the books for year end sale'I have dipped my toe in today. It is a pity that we as a nation seem unable to give technology time to pove its worth. i understand that there are 50 applications in this country for incinerators and that as we are unable to wave a wand and rubbish dissapears and land fill is no longer an option we will have to go with the likes of compact power. I have been following this company since the site in Avonmouth was being built and as today I could buy below the last CEO purchase I took the very limited chance.

[kevster] 18/3/2003 16:31

'Whilst the operation at Avonmouth has yet to achieve profitability, it continues
to be successful in demonstrating the process in commercial conditions and
confirming it as an effective option for dealing with special wastes to the
highest environmental standards. This has also now firmly established Compact
Power in the markets for clinical and other high value wastes.'

From the interims, under Avonmouth performance,

Kev