Colt Telecom Share Discussion Threads

[dickbush] 26/2/2015 20:53

dealy, you've made some very good calls in the past. I will be delighted if you get this one right as well.

[dealy] 26/2/2015 18:22

Colt's operational performance is very similar to say IBM's in recent years. Steady but lack luster. Don't ignore the fact that a hundred million europeans are watching videos on their smart phones all day and the infrastructure required to support such services is very much in Colt's core space. The strategic value is far higher than the pure economic value. That's why I think we are still at a 52 week high despite the low euro. I think we will break out in the next few days and reach 200p this year.

[robwt] 26/2/2015 17:13

It all spells the same jam tomorrow of the last decade. So many other opportunities missed while holding these. I squirm when I realise I got out of ARM holdings and BT and still held Colt. Still, you pays your money you takes your choice!

[dickbush] 26/2/2015 17:07

dealy, I agree with you about the value being in its acquisition. Unfortunately, with every passing year IMO that value is declining. After the 2012 Capital Markets Day I thought we would be looking at £2.50 by now without a bid. As it stands right now I think we'd be lucky to get £2.20 with a bid. Having turned down a bid of £2.50 (according to rumour) in 2007 it is difficult to imagine Fidelity accepting £2.20 now. However, they did get circa 200 million shares at 83 1/2p in early 2009.

My best guess is that the KVH acquisition will give the appearance of growth in EBITDA in 2015 and 2016 sufficient to attract a bid of £2.50 plus in a year or so. Given the biannual series of write-offs (exceptional items) we have suffered since 2010 as Colt repositions the company again and again, that is as optimistic as I can get.

I'm not at all convinced that its strategic positioning is improving. Colt seems to me to be like a bad buyer of shares: it only gets into something after the consensus is so strong that it feels it has to. It is always Johnny come lately. If Bhasin were a professional fund manager he would have been out of business several years ago.

[palace andy] 26/2/2015 16:23

I did read that the takeover of KVH might make Colt a less likely candidate for takeover itself. Perhaps Fidelity has some sort of Masterplan to go on the takeover trail...........another 10 yrs of inaction is more likely though.

[robwt] 26/2/2015 15:00

There will be no deals or much improvement while Fidelity call the tune. Hoping for a bid seems pie in the sky. I thought that the recent rumours might carry some truth, but I now think it unlikely, hence my decision this morning.

I still hold, so if anything happens I might be able to smile, but the time had come to bite the bullit.

[dealy] 26/2/2015 14:33

The real value here is in a consolidation / merger. Colt is not the only company posting lack-lustre growth. But overall its strategic position is improving steadily

[robwt] 26/2/2015 13:06

DB..I reckon we have all come to realise that Fidelity are a bloated complacent fat and lazy behemoth. I wouldn't have a pension with them if they paid 50% of the contributions.

Seeing how they plod along and allow companies like Colt become also-ran non performers. Bhasin has been a waste of space, even with all his free shares and fatcat bonuses he has managed to comatise the company. A typical candidate for the long line of useless management Colt have been blessed with.

I dumped some of my holding this morning and added to my holding of LLOY. They report tomorrow, I hope with a little bit more vigour than the old lag.

[dickbush] 26/2/2015 12:33

I agree with you, robwt. The figures are uninspiring. It is just plodding along. KVH (ex consolidation costs) could add Eur 20 mil plus to 2015's EBITDA and Euro 25 mil plus to 2016. But only bull markets think buying earnings growth is "a good thing" and this is a pretty small acquisition.

As palace andy has reminded us, Fidelity doesn't like buying other people's problems. So, Colt has foregone major consolidation opportunities against a background of extraordinarily low costs of debt finance over the past several years. IMO it has done as bad a job on financial engineering as it has done operationally.

I will stick with it only because the most senior management has changed at Fidelity and I am hoping it recognises that Colt is still standing at the gate while the rest of the field has raced away.

[robwt] 26/2/2015 11:11

More of the usual. No fireworks from a dull set of figures. With the dinosaur Fidelity finger in the pie, I don't see any future with Bhasin at the helm.

Jam tomorrow has been the call for going on 15 years and these figures don't inspire.

[palace andy] 26/2/2015 08:46

From JPM

Colt
(Underweight)
150p (25 February 2015)
Colt's FY results of revenue €1,496m (-5%) and EBITDA €297m (-7%) imply Q4 revenue 4% above consensus (source: company) and EBITDA 6% ahead. Outlook commentary focuses on cost control and free cash flow generation. Following these results, we might expect consensus to increase marginally, as Colt begins to show evidence of overcoming the difficulties faced in 2014.

From Deutsche

Synopsis:
*Hold pending improving visibility during 2015

Colt Group beat on growth vs previously lowered expectations in Q4 though this was predominantly due to lower margin voice and volatile IT services revenues. That saw EBITDA in line with DBe (though a healthy 8% beat relative to consensus). Colt has formally withdrawn outdated guidance but appears satisfied with market EBITDA expectations for 2015 however and intends to focus on cash generation whilst nurturing growth and completing a business transformation this year. We keep our Hold rating pending improved visibility on prospects and profitability. Our TP moves 10p lower (to 155p) due to a weaker EUR vs GBP.

[dickbush] 26/2/2015 08:05

I was looking for 4th qtr EBITDA of Eur 80 mil as a sign of an improving trend. Ex the costs of acquisition of KVH and its contribution to EBITDA (Eur 0.4mil) Colt made Eur 80.5 mil ex Eur 2.3 mil of acquisition expenses. So I'm reasonably satisfied that "signs of improvement" are visible.

RB abandons the forecasts for growth made in the 2012 Capital Market Day. As there has been no sign of those targets being met over the past almost three years, I can't imagine that there was anyone left who was expecting those targets to be met.

RB states that EBITDA was not affected by the rise of Sterling (and the Rupee) against the Euro. As costs in these two currencies are substantially greater than their revenue I don't see how that is possible. Can anyone help me on this?

Ex KVH and its acquisition costs, 4th Qtr EBITDA was Euro 80.5 mil on surprisingly strong Revenue of Euro 367 mil. That gives an EBITDA Margin of 21.9%. A fairly decent improvement.

KVH looks like a potential positive for 2015 and beyond if, as stated at the time of its acquisition, Revenue continues to grow at high single digits with the EBITDA trending towards 20% "over the medium term" I expect it to contribute circa Euro 22 mil in 2015 ex currency movements and assuming its integration costs are treated as "exceptional".

[robwt] 25/2/2015 15:14

I hope there is an improvement. The half a dozen or so long term holder on this board deserve a reward for sticking with Colt. The 1 for 3 split at 177p plus the dillution Fidelity organized to their advantage, leaves us holders way out of pocket. The shares should have grown to 400p if only they had kept up with BT. The old guard at Fidelity and Mr Bhasin and co, should be ashamed of their track record.

Fidelity and the Colt management board have made Colt a continuing underperformer. We are all sick and tired of plaudits, prizes, claims of being the best only resulting in damp squib results.

I hope things are about to change...starting tomorrow.

[dealy] 25/2/2015 14:01

I always get nervous when Colt has to report results....

Hopefully this time they can report growth in the segments that matter (and dispense entirely of wholesale voice which contributes nothing to the bottom line and has resulted in stagnating overall revenue).

[palace andy] 25/2/2015 13:07

I'm expecting the price to be up by the end of the day. Tomorrow is another matter!!

[dickbush] 25/2/2015 11:58

A bad day so far but the only thing that Colt has excelled at is keeping its figures secret until their announcement.

Fingers crossed for tomorrow.

[dickbush] 23/2/2015 20:19

Colt starts using network ring in south NL
Monday 23 February 2015 | 09:23 CET | News

Colt has started using a new broadband network in the southern part of the Netherlands. The network rings connects Eindhoven, ‘s-Hertogenbosch and Utrecht to its own pan-European network and beyond. The ring also creates a third network route to its carrier-neutral data centre in Roosendaal.

Colt said the network is future proof , that it supports services of up to 100 Gbps and that it will connect companies in the south of the country to European hubs such as Amsterdam, Antwerp and Frankfurt.

The investment also includes reliable, high capacity connections with seven major data centres in the region. One of the connections is at the Tech Campus in Eindhoven on the Colt network. The new rings brings the number of data centres associated with Colt to 47 in the Netherlands and to 550 internationally.

[palace andy] 19/2/2015 14:46

another link from lightreading.com on KVH takeover, not sure if posted before

hxxp://www.lightreading.com/data-center/data-center-infrastructure/colt-kvh-a-hook-up-bound-to-happen/a/d-id/712021

[palace andy] 19/2/2015 14:36

A bit more on the deutsche deal

hxxp://www.eurocomms.com/industry-news/10457-colt-deutsche-telekom-sign-enterprise-focused-voice-partnership-in-europe


hxxp://www.lightreading.com/services/wholesale-transport-services/deutsche-telekom-colt-join-forces-on-voice/d/d-id/713825?_mc=RSS_LR_EDT

[dickbush] 19/2/2015 13:39

Deutsche Telekom, Colt team up on voice services
Thursday 19 February 2015 | 12:55 CET | News

Deutsche Telekom unit International Carrier Sales & Solutions (ICSS) has signed an agreement with Colt Technology Services for a five-year partnership covering international telephony services. As part of this collaboration, Colt will use Deutsche Telekom's network interconnects to expand and strengthen its portfolio of voice services for both wholesale and enterprise customers. Deutsche Telekom ICSS will have access to Colt's comprehensive voice portfolio and extensive network in Europe, allowing it to better support its customers across Europe. As a result of this partnership, Colt and Deutsche Telekom expect lower network and voice termination costs outside their network footprint without the requirement of extensive investments.

[robwt] 16/2/2015 14:40

hxxp://sleekmoney.com/colt-group-sa-receives-consensus-rating-of-hold-from-brokerages-loncolt/130387/

[mirko] 16/2/2015 08:27

Analysts Set Colt Group SA Target Price at $135.22 (LON:COLT)February 15th, 2015 - 0 comments - Filed Under - by Thomas Dobrow135,22 USD ?