Colliers Intl Share Discussion Threads

[jojo_jo] 30/1/2012 11:07

Somebody building a position it seems, with those end of day 3m & 2m buys. A total of 8m or more in the last couple of days alone. More if you count large chunks also bought recently at sub-0.75p. That's over 5% of the share total. Could well be a rival suitor/white knight?

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Ritblat/Horrell and the banks would be naive to entrust the company to First Service.
IMPO/DYOR.

[jojo_jo] 29/1/2012 13:12

Some major international players who would be interested in a cheap entry (or increase in market share) in the UK market:

Cassidy Turley
Holliday Fenoglio Fowler
Studley, Inc.
CB Richard Ellis (World No.1)
Jones Lang LaSalle (World Top 3/4)
Newmark Knight Frank
Grubb & Ellis
CresaPartners
Cushman & Wakefield (C&W) (World Top 3/4)
Eastdil Secured

There are probably hundreds who could afford Colliers UK, at this stupid price. There does not appear to be a problem with debt (nearly all longer-term) and banks remain 'supportive'. A lot of small local property agents/surveyors could even afford it.
Any bidder who got around 35% or more of Shareholder support could be successful, as this figure is more than the FS holding.

The FS bid, if succesful (god forbid) would crystallise shareholder value. There would be NO further benefit whatsoever to shareholders. They could not say 'it would be in shareholders future interests' for example. It would be game over, so shareholders must ONLY consider the single best offer. Even an all-share offer, by a decent company, which valued the business at around £5m/£6m would be perfectly acceptable. We just get the equivalent of 3.5p/4p per share in the acquiring companies shares. It may even be preferable, as shareholders could still then benefit from an improvement in the value of those shares in line with an improvement in the property sector. Long term investors' losses could eventually be recovered. It has the major attraction for an acquirer of not involving much, if any, cash. It is not rocket science creating a business plan which would erase operating losses. I could write one myself in half a day.

Accordingly, any credible offer would surely attract > 35% of the shareholder vote, and put FS on the spot. They would have to match/beat the offer or face a good size paper loss and an embarrassing loss of face.

This is a steal at anything below £5m, so don't even consider an offer below 4p/share. The accounts imply it would fetch more if it was completely liquidated.

I would be very surprised if Horrell and Ritblat had not spoken to several other 'interested parties' already. Some of course will keep their hands well hidden until the FS bid is actually confirmed. I'll eat my hat if Horrell hasn't already talked to old friends at Jones Lang LaSalle.

IMPO/DYOR.

[loverat] 28/1/2012 11:57

I see there is a section underneath this article to leave comments.

[rsouler] 27/1/2012 15:26

OK, thanks. So no offer yet.
Thought I'd missed something!

Also unclear whether 2nd RNS was actually drawn up on 24th immediately after first, in which case 'offer' could be anywhere in the 0.85p - 1.30p range. Derisory and totally unaccaptable whichever.

Anything under 4p should be promptly and firmly rejected. IMO.

On the positive side, if/when they (FS) do formalise such an offer, it will soon draw the other interested parties out of the woodwork. IMO.

Let's have it!

[rsouler] 27/1/2012 15:26

OK, thanks. So no offer yet.
Thought I'd missed something!

Also unclear whether 2nd RNS was actually drawn up on 24th immediately after first, in which case 'offer' could be anywhere in the 0.85p - 1.30p range. Derisory and totally unaccaptable whichever.

Anything under 4p should be promptly and firmly rejected. IMO.

[joeblogg2] 27/1/2012 14:55

I meant whatever possible offer which is below 1p from rns from 25thjan

[rsouler] 27/1/2012 14:46

What bid?

Did I miss something?

[joeblogg2] 27/1/2012 14:36

The bid is very opportunistic and a slap in the face of shareholders and I hope Ritblat quickly rejects it and other investors support the company!!!

[wakeland] 27/1/2012 14:32

Well here is one employee who appears to be averaging down.

[rsouler] 27/1/2012 13:45

Another opinion (of mine, personally) is that the Mohicans could be trying to do a major 'job' - ON EVERYONE. If they do get it (god forbid and I DON'T SEE IT personally) I wouldn't be surprised to see it asset stripped, debtors called quickly to book, creditors and banks kept waiting... and then cast adrift. That could be the future (ie. NO future) if the Innuits get there hands on it. IMO.
I just hope Horrell and Ritblat see that as a distinct possibility and MAKE SURE it doesn't happen! Make sure they don't steal it.

[oldtown] 27/1/2012 13:37

Funny thing is, for a share allegedly worthless the mm's didn't want to sell any and Muzicant buying?.
That's got me very interested. (says in best poker face)
Well i call pre-flop, amd looking to raise before river.

[rsouler] 27/1/2012 13:17

That just looked a lot like a little 'tree shake' - a bit of stock gathering by MMs before a big push higher. Either that or there's a decent sized buy order in the background. IMO.

[rsouler] 27/1/2012 13:07

Acquiring a name like Colliers CRE (and an LSE listing to boot) would be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a lot of Property/Estate Agents. If I was one of them, and had £3m/£4m handy, I'd definitely be going for it. I'd rather see it taken private at £3m/£4m by Ritblat & Horrell than let the Canadians steal it! This was after all Ritblat's first baby, and £3m is small beer to him. He'll value his good name well above that!

If someone did come in for it, they would have to raise their bid or risk sitting on a big loss (30% x 140m x 20p very approximately) of > £8m.
How brilliant would that be, seeing this turned on its head and the protagonists becoming the victims! I'd just love that.
IMO.

[rsouler] 27/1/2012 11:17

Savills could buy this from their 'petty cash tin'! Look...

Savills plc ("Savills" or "the Group")

RESULTS FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDED 30 JUNE 2011
Savills plc, the international real estate advisor, today announces its interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2011.

Key Financial Information
Group revenue up 10% to £335.8m (2010: £304.4m)
Group profit before tax up 39% to £20.0m (2010: £14.4m)
Underlying Group profit before tax up 20% to £20.6m (2010: £17.2m)

Basic earnings per share up 52% to 12.0p (2010: 7.9p)
Underlying basic earnings per share up 23% to 11.8p (2010: 9.6p)
Interim dividend up 5% to 3.15p per share (2010: 3.0p)

Net cash of £25.9m (2010: £20.1m)

Operational Highlights
Strong growth in transaction advisory business driven by demand for Prime Central London Residential property and continued strength of Asia Pacific markets, particularly Greater China
Continued investment focused on the recruitment of new teams and offices across the Savills network
Further growth of property and facilities management activities with the total area under management up 17% driven largely by Asia Pacific
Fund Management profits up 20% with fee income up 25%
-----------------------

Note the line: 'Continued investment focused on the recruitment of new teams and offices...'.
IMO.

[falia] 27/1/2012 10:45

1P OFFER COMING

[rsouler] 27/1/2012 10:45

This is not intended as advice, but if I was a longer term holder with an average entry price of 4p or more I'd be averaging that down at present, because this could easily recover to 2p/3p in the short term (and much higher if a bidding war ensues). 100,000 shares currently only cost around £850.
Just what I'd be doing. Could be wrong - often am, so probably best ignored!
IMO.
PS. Don't give those shorters your shares for anything less than 2p MINIMUM!

[rsouler] 27/1/2012 09:36

They (FS) have to come up with something respectable. A low-ball bid will have to be rejected, in view of the last balance sheet, and will also invite multiple rival bids. They (FS) could well try a stupidly low 1p bid, but it would prove to be their downfall as much more attractive bids come in, from credible bidders, which would have to be recommended as they offer better value for shareholders. The CEO and Chairman have probably already spoken to several parties. Most of these would be happy to look after such top people in a take-over, so they are MORE likely to keep their jobs with most rival bidders than with (the dubiously intentioned) First Service. It could act as a kind of subsequent RTO for quite a number of private cos. like the highly profitable Knight-Frank, for example.
Whoever takes it over is going to keep it running 'stand-alone'. They're going to keep it ring-fenced from their existing businesses for a while (...nobody will likely want to add debt to their existing balance sheet). So in this respect, from the banks standpoint, there is little difference who takes it on, although they will want a company who can turn Colliers CRE itself around, and reduce the debt. If I was a banker I would want a company experienced in operating in the UK market, not a jack-of-all-trades North American outfit! IMO.
PS. Is there any carryable tax-loss here? Last couple of years losses, if carryable, could be worth around £3m alone. Any thoughts?

[loverat] 26/1/2012 22:17

I do wonder when Horrell is going to make an announcement as to whether Canadian Carpet Baggers, First Service have decided to make an offer. Or whether he has told them to take a hike. Is he in the pocket of First Service and driving the get away car? Or is he his own man?

Well, I guess we will know soon enough and yes - I reckon it will all come out in the wash very soon.

Boy - this must be one of the few corporate actions where the share price will rocket - if the company seeking a takeover don't make an offer!

Someone called them tight fisted. That is the understatment of the year!!

[loverat] 26/1/2012 22:09

For now take a brouse at a new thread.

The Canadian Corporate Carpet Bagger thread.....

[loverat] 26/1/2012 17:42

RSouler

I strongly suggest you contact AIM or the FSA. They usually would want something specific to start an investigation but not necessary to send a 100 page file.

I suggest perhaps reading past RNS's and then comparing them to the situation where we are today. The last two RNS's are also suspect too - one by Colliers and one by FirstService which are quite different, the second designed to cause a disorderly market and stick the boot in to the company.

When we know a bit more I intend to set up a small group of shareholders to discuss action. Not an action group though as they do not usually work and people do not have the time to commit.

My idea is a publicity campaign to highlight this and other scandals on this market. The 'AIM Directors from Hell' is one idea and based on the very successful and notorious Solicitors From Hell (which was closed down by the High Court recently and now has three replacement sites). Also there are a number of people within the media who may be interested in this story - particularly so after DTZ and the contrasting situation here.

The British press might enjoy laying into a group of Canadian Carpet Baggers trying to screw British Shareholders. Also there will be coverage of Sir John and the current CEO and their disastrous performance and role and an investigation. I said before - reputation is all important in this sector. The noise will continue for years and years and there will be plenty of support from ADVFN posters who are fed up to the back teeth.

If you have read a few sites I have contributed to over the years, (several eventually closed down by legal action) you will see how persistent I and a few others can be.

Anyway - I will send out invites soon once the situation is clearer here.

[rsouler] 26/1/2012 13:31

Some serious buying (near 2m) in the 0.65p region showing now. Value deservedly being seen finally. imo.

(Don't let the short-sellers close out at these levels!
Make them pay 2p, AT LEAST!)

[rsouler] 26/1/2012 13:28

Yes, this escapade has destroyed the long-revered Ritblat name. He should hang his head in shame.
Unless he puts his foot down now, on behalf of investors, in the interests of fair play, it could become a horrible end to an illustrious career. imo.

[joeblogg2] 26/1/2012 13:23

Sir John Ritblat needs to have a good look in the mirror the way this has been destroyed!!

[rsouler] 26/1/2012 13:21

Blue sky coming! imo.