Coffeeheaven Share Discussion Threads

[cool runnings] 07/1/2010 11:24

Out of interest ,have you accepted the 24p carwhite? Thanks

[carwhite] 07/1/2010 10:53

I have, over 250K @17p

[cool runnings] 06/1/2010 17:32

Does anyone hear have a substantial holding in this company like myself? 3% or more? May have an interesting situation if you do!

[carwhite] 30/12/2009 10:04

It was obvious that poor management could not cut it. ie high expenses and lack of profits indicated the writing was on the wall for the small shareholder.

To much hype over Currie's purchase sent the price way too far higher than it should have been yet there were warnings given on the BBs and it was proven again he is only a fallible man!

[serratia] 22/12/2009 00:05

Coffee911 - I should have given it more thought.When the interims came out I could have bought them for 19p,my own spreadsheet suggested 27p.Takeover talks were around and logical.A preditor was likely to come in on the share price weakness and there was a 25% uplift for the taking.
I still have to fight logic vs emotion and as usual emotion (poor results) won.

[coffee911] 21/12/2009 23:36

Serratia, I wish I'd sold when you did and I also wish I was smart enough to pile in when they were 10p. My guess is 2 to 3 weeks from now we will know the final exit price.

[serratia] 21/12/2009 22:54

Coffee911,

COH reports are detailed.You can work out the gross margin per store the time to come up to speed in fact most of the figures you need to get a reasonable handle on the following years margins.You can get a pretty good figure for stores opening during the following year.I constructed a pretty detailed spreadsheet and valued COH at 15* the following years EBITDA.This served me well and when they got what I thought was a bit toppy I sold at 30,40 and 50p.
I have been tempted to re-enter but the half year report was a bit off the pace so I haven't followed too closely.
Local EBITDA for last year was £3252,if this had risen by 10% say they would be worth around £53m on 15* the next years EBITDA.However the half year EBITDA was £1205 so unless things change they're looking at around £2500k for the present year,which gives me a valuation of £37.5m,about 30% less than I hoped.If they had done as well as I was expecting I would have seen a share price of about 36p based on 15* the present years EBITDA.

[carwhite] 21/12/2009 21:39

more stores should equate to more earnings/profits otherwise why open them?

[coffee911] 21/12/2009 19:21

Serratia, Looking only at earnings for a coffee stock is bit risky. If you have a young company and are opening lots of stores, then earnings will be low.

[serratia] 21/12/2009 18:03

Coffee911,
Must have been Nero as it was a quoted company.

[coffee911] 21/12/2009 14:58

Serratia, Whitbread bought Costa which was a private company and Jerry Ford took Nero private. Seattle was also a private company. EQT bought SSP which was had a range of retail food and coffee outlets, at the time it was part of Compass Group. Jerry Ford was probably the only one to get his sums right. I'm not sure on the Costa price, I think it was about £10mill.

[carwhite] 21/12/2009 12:08

Reading back here there are plenty of warnings given that this company was incapable of making profits! Yet there are people here using all sorts of weird calculations that obviously and foolishly thought they knew all about stock valuations and knew better, when they were just plain ordinary rampers who knew sod all..

NOW THE FACTS ARE OUT AND MANY OF YOU ARE HURTING.

[gk1066] 21/12/2009 11:12

Look at the options RW has cashed in. He has sold you down the river having never made a profit and loaded the business with costs and screwed up a good business in Poland by wasting money expanding. Average 400,000 quid for each shop is not bad going and doubt anybody will pay more. Starbucks in Poland and Czech rep is Amrest. They are doing very well without Coffeeheaven opening in prime sites and not paying a premium.
In denying lavazza rumours at 43p I suspect RW knew that costa were the only serious suitor. This company has been for sale for the last 2 years.

[serratia] 21/12/2009 11:07

Coffee911,

I used to hold COH and my valuation was based on the 15* figure.It was some time back so off the top of my head I can't remember which companies were bought out but it wasn't Seattle.

[carwhite] 21/12/2009 09:43

Say you could prove it and proving it are worlds apart. It looks to me that you bought into your own rampings and have found yourself very badly stuck!

If name calling helps you good luck because it wont help your bank balance.

[coffee911] 21/12/2009 07:57

Serratia, which coy are you thinking of? Nero or Seattle Coffee Coy?

[serratia] 20/12/2009 22:29

UK coffee co's have been taken out at 15* EBITDA.If you double the local EBITDA and multiply be 15 you get a price of 26.7p so their offer is in line with the trend,

[carwhite] 18/12/2009 21:21

I think you were saying 40?50p? not so long ago, with your unfounded rampings I think there is only one here that needs to KCUF FFO

Look what what you silly rubbish may have cost others. COH is lucky to get a 24p bid.

[carwhite] 18/12/2009 09:30

As said the writing has always been clearly on the wall. Not even Bill Currie could sort this one out. However the management's track record peaks for itself.

Ball did not roll very far did it!



cool runnings - 11 Dec'09 - 10:39 - 7887 of 7908

It will get the ball rolling!! This is far from over

[gk1066] 17/12/2009 12:41

Who will incur the expense of mounting a bid against Whitbread? Nobody. Clearly an MBO was not an option as the business is loaded with costs already. Lavazza bid talk was stopped in its tracks by RW.Rather than making no comment he denied the rumour. He probably regrets this now. Seems to be confused as to what it means to run a public company for the benefit of all it's shareholders.
Sell up and move on.

[carwhite] 17/12/2009 10:03

I see lots of the old die-hards with egg on their chops, of course they always did know better.

The writing has always been clearly on the wall.