Cobra Bio-manufacturing Share Discussion Threads

[alibongo612] 08/4/2009 12:21

But they are skint.

For those of us that paid much higher prices lets hope they can survive without being forced into agreeing a takeover at a price that doesn't reflect even true present value.

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 12:18

jdb

what was your point regarding the acid test supposed to be?

[jdb2005] 08/4/2009 12:16

Ali - Agreed, so lets focus on Cobra & their future prospects.

One of their customers, GenVec at their year-end had $17.4m in cash & equivalents. They reduced their own workforce and said they needed to conserve funds to have 17/18 months working capital to take their drug trials through next crucial phases.

Cobra has £11m worth of orders and are likely to win more if they remain independent. They have gained international recognition for their vaccines work, hence the interest being shown by third parties.

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 12:13

A lot else being discussed ali?


jbd, I'll give a hand...

At year end:
Current assets £2.44m
Current liabilities £4.26m

So, what was your point regarding the acid test supposed to be??

[alibongo612] 08/4/2009 11:47

This is very wearing

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 11:36

"In terms of current trading position - apply the acid test: current assets
less current liabilities."

Please post the results of the acid test then jdb (which ignores cash flows)

What are current assets less current liabilities

[jdb2005] 08/4/2009 11:21

Good news - take yourself off to MDX and OXB boards then. On your own admission You have not bought shares in CBF so you are an enigma.

In terms of current trading position - apply the acid test: current assets
less current liabilities.

Based on current updates it would not surprise me to see total orders of £13-14m for 2009. If GenVec want to take their drug development to the next stage that could add further £1m approx.

Latest talks with third parties should only improve prospects for shareholders.

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 11:12

Haha, I'M the one that has looked foolish jdb? Riiight.

"the company has turned the corner."


Sure, there is light at the end of the tunnel, but they sure as hell aren't there yet.
Read the financial report. Cash is clearly still a huge concern, but you seem utterly unable to accept that - instead relying on childish comments as a diversion. Expected behaviour for a teenager, but at your age?

I'll waste no more time on you.

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 11:09

Hyper

Agree that the historical losses are an asset.
I'm not sure debt is of any value though?

If a buyer paid £2m for Cobra
Liabilities are £2.5m

So that's £4.5m costs at a price of 5p/share

Then offset the tax credits (how much?)

[jdb2005] 08/4/2009 11:06

D*c - I'm happy with what I know about Cobra thanks.

You don't seem to realise the company has turned the corner.

Not interested in your negativity either as you will only look foolish once again !!

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 10:59

jdb, believe it or not, but some people post genuine views without any view of getting in cheaper, without any short position, or without any bitterness.
You should try it some time.

I note you still havent come up with any defence of your comments that were proven to be rubbish - just silly snidey remarks or accusations.

So come on. What does the co. do if new orders are delayed?
Despite the poorly researched waffle from yourself and blackfox, raising money against assets or orders is unlikely.

Have I ever said orders will be delayed - NO
Just pointing out that there are serious issues if orders are delayed AGAIN.


'weighed against the last two RNS'

What? just the last two?
Conveniently stop before the Annual Report and going concern comments?

[jdb2005] 08/4/2009 10:53

D*c - looks to me like you did not buy at 1-2p and will do your best to try to scaremonger to see if you can get share price down a little.
All the information out in the public arena needs to be weighed against the last two RNS. Cobra are winning new orders and spreading their net internationally.

I'm confident the new CEO has sufficient knowledge and experience to broker deals at Cobra.

[hyper al] 08/4/2009 10:43

the_doctor

A buyer of the company could offset loss/debt against it's own profits/cash, this is in fact a benefit for the buyer.

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 10:36

ali,
It's ok, apparently you cant go bust if you've got a reasonable order book
;o)

& if that's questioned, you can call everyone shorters or derampers, then claim cash can be raised against assets (despite that having been somewhat done already, oops!)

In reality, Cobra, as stated in the accounts and clear to anyone genuine, is on a knife edge.
If current orders go as planned and further orders come in, the company will be able to survive and grow.
Any (further) delays and it is either a placing at 1p, or game over IMO.

For those reasons, a chance to get out at something like 4-10p might be attractive to major shareholders.
But miracles do happen - you never know, someone else may have plans to build a £30m pilot plant, but will pay £20m for Cobra?

I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Either way, it seems good news for shareholders. ie. to have a new option

[alibongo612] 08/4/2009 10:31

CBF's ability to borrow must be virtualy nil

It's not about the value of unencumbered assets its about the ability to service the debt

As for a loss making co. borrowing against a technology order book - get real !!

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 10:24

Look for new "PARTICULARS OF MORTGAGE/CHARGE" at Companies House if they're planning a new loan IMO.

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 10:21

...property plant and equipment valued at £8.2m

BUT Cobra already has bank loans

"Non current liabilities fell in the year to GBP2.5m (2007: GBP2.8m) and they
comprise of a bank loan with National Westminster Bank Plc of GBP1.8m (2007:
GBP1.9m), secured against the freehold buildings in Oxford and a GBP0.3m cash
deposit, and finance lease obligations of GBP0.7m (2007: GBP0.9m).The bank loan
is repayable over a 13 year period which commenced November 2007 and the finance lease are repayable between 2 and 5 years"

The loan of £1.8m is approx 25% of PP&E book value (roughly in line with my estimate of no more than 50%)

It is secured against the freehold buildings.
They could perhaps therefore secure against other equipment, but the buildings would strike me as much easier to borrow against and they're already done that.

You and jdb both say they could borrow against the order book.
Ok, how many small caps do you know that have managed that sort of thing? (I dont know, but would be interested to hear of examples).

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 10:17

Blackfox, the terms of any bank loan were clearly worse than the terrible placing though.

What is the book value of the property in the accounts, that you suggest they could borrow against? I'd suggest a loan no more than 50% of that would be possible? So how much would that give?

[blackfox] 08/4/2009 10:14

Hyper Al Yes, for a well run company there are banks that would lend on property. Only at a valuation less than the present.

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 09:49

blackfox - would they have carried out the terrible placing if you were right?

[hyper al] 08/4/2009 09:48

blackfox

"capital can be raised on property."

Can it in these markets?

[hyper al] 08/4/2009 09:46

Cobra's Patents. Not sure if I have got them all

Cobra Biolog Ltd



Cobra Biomfg plc

[blackfox] 08/4/2009 09:38

The company has £11m in orders they have property worth £xxx. I wonder how much they can raise on these. Any good business manager would know they can raise money on firm orders. I suppose it does not take a genius to know that capital can be raised on property.

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 09:37

blackfox.
Only a handful of people post on this thread. It isnt hard to put 2 & 2 together!

Countless people post on countless shares they're interested in, without holding them. That might be out of plain interest, or just because its a stock they watch. Yet people like you repeatedly seem to think that is odd!
I'll tell you one thing - those posting without shares or planning to buy them are probably more honest!

If you look back, you'll see that my posts in the last few days started off about the positives. I've continued to post positives where I see fit.
All I did was point out the cash issues that some seemed to either be missing, or denying. Just read the financial reports, it's all there. While the order book can be wonderful, if near term cash issues exist, then the positives wont come into play until those issues are overcome.

[blackfox] 08/4/2009 09:31

the_doctor Where did I mention your name but if the shoe fits. I do have a couple of questions. Why do you post as you are not a SH, and why only pick on the negatives.