Cobra Bio-manufacturing Share Discussion Threads

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 09:30

Perfectly well thanks jdb.
Just throwing in a further objective comment, but they cant all be positive and the posts re going concern are fair, whether holders like it or not.
I personally think there are valuable assets to buy here - worth above the market cap. But the point was really that there are cash issues and major shareholders may accept what would seem to be a low price.

Without knowing them, my gut feeling is that major shareholders will be confident about growing orders in the future. Pharmas are increasingly getting into biologics and as yet, dont have sufficient in-house capabilities IMO. ie. demand for Cobra should perhaps continue to grow.

[jdb2005] 08/4/2009 09:24

D*c - Are you feeling okay today !!!

You had better have a word with GM.

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 09:16

jdb, I agree. Mammalian cell lines are a great niche for Cobra to be in, since the hurdles to entry for less experienced competitors or customers are high.

I'd actually not be surprised to see a generics co. like Teva buying Cobra to accelerate its biologics capabilities.

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 09:14

blackfox

1. I personally posted pros AND cons
2. My only claim to have knowledge was in saying how much the plants should at least be worth. It was only later when someone made childish remarks that I then backed up my views with qualifications.
3. The suggestions of caution were based on the FACTS re going concern, as stated by COBRA in the financial report
4. boadicea's posts were completely objective and sensible

At the end of the day, you can dismiss any sensible cautious comments with pointless 'know-it-all' name calling, but it wont make one jot of difference!

[jdb2005] 08/4/2009 09:08

Hyper - good Scientific report which although issued last year may not have been seen by investment analysts and registered with PIs.
It could explain why Cobra has been successful in gaining new orders in the last quarter and hence why it is now attracting further interest from pharmas.

A good CEO will exploit the technology that he has.

[blackfox] 08/4/2009 09:05

Good to see people looking at facts rather than know-it-all's.

[hyper al] 08/4/2009 08:57

Well done Cobra, this sounds like a major winner for the company!!

At last!

'Improving Clone Production for Increased Protein Yield from Mammalian Cell Lines'

[jdb2005] 08/4/2009 08:43

Thanks Boadicea for reminding us that we are seeing a new CEO starting to turn Cobra around - improvements in the second half year & refocusing of the business on its strengths are key points:

Growth of the Business

We have identified that the production of mammalian cell secreted proteins is an area of the business that will provide significant growth opportunities, as
demonstrated by the number of contracts signed in 2008. These products lend
themselves to manufacture using new disposable technologies, which will reduce
costs, increase our operating efficiency and increase our capacity.

In addition Cobra is one of the few contract manufacturing organisations capable of manufacturing commercial quantities of regulatory compliant viral based products.

As part of the geographical expansion of the business and in line with the
opportunities in Asia, we have appointed an agent in Japan to enable Cobra to
focus significant effort on the rapidly growing Japanese biologics market, at a low cost entry level.

Outlook

I would like to thank all the staff at Cobra for their hard work, expertise and dedication over the past year, all of which has resulted in a strong order book.
A new Chief Executive invariably means change, and I would also like to thank
the Board, the management team and all the staff for their support and active
involvement in introducing changes to enable Cobra to compete efficiently in the difficult financial climate faced by the industry as a whole. We will continue to fight for long term development and manufacturing relationships, and strategic partnerships that will provide more predictable revenues and
opportunities to expand the business.

Simon Saxby
Chief Executive
25 March 2009

Hence ignoring the cynics I will add more as further funds become available.

[hyper al] 08/4/2009 08:21

blackfox

Like you say the results suggst an exciting future. I think he move into Japan is excellent news.

results rns

[blackfox] 08/4/2009 08:12

I am always very suspicious of people with no holding in a company posting showing such concern for SH and their investment, also claiming to be experts. The final offer if it comes will depend on how badly the bidder wants what the company has and how much the major SH want to part with their existing holding. There are a few things which makes CBF attractive to a potential predator. We just have to wait and see what happens. My belief is that any bid will be way in excess of the current Sp.

My advice is don't listen to those who profess to be very knowledgeable. Many attention seekers about. Just do your own research. I was one of the first to add to my holding after the results (1.6p) because of some statements which I believe many haven't as yet picked up on. Go back and read the results carefully.

[hyper al] 08/4/2009 08:11

Just not enough investors around during Easter holidays.

[hyper al] 08/4/2009 07:55

good morning all

[the_doctor] 08/4/2009 06:49

Good review boadicea.

[hyper al] 08/4/2009 00:37

boadicea

You never know, but at current share price we stand at just £1.7million, which is way short of what any bid will be.

Maybe investors will take note, or maybe not, we will see.

10p certainly and 20p would be very nice, but I think we would need a battle to see that 20p.

[boadicea] 07/4/2009 23:54

I believe the share issue is 44.3M, which makes the equity plus nominal (=1p) per share at end Sept '08 about 10p. This is less than the loss per share for the reported year. On that basis, given the requirement that the directors must satisfy themselves that the company is viable for the 12 months to Sept '09, there is a close call ultimately dependent on a reasonable expectation (e.g. rather more likely than not) that the current year will be better than the reported one. Part of that expectation (imho) could reasonably rest on the probability of finding a buyer for the business as well as on the forward order book. The particular difficulty of an expanding order book is the cost of financing it which the company does not have within its current resources, making it dependent on advance or regular stage payments from the customer.

On the plus side (a rather short list here!) the balance sheet is almost clean of intangibles.

We do not yet know the auditors' formal view although the company has clearly had some guidance before issuing the figures and does not anticipate any contradiction of the guarded picture of a going concern basis.

From the predators pov, the process of acquiring control is relatively straightforward given the concentration of holdings quoted by Hyper above (not to mention his own share) - the Dixons and Cavendish alone amount to 49% (I have excluded nominees as they may not necessarily have discretionary authority) and one assumes the board will concur to take it over 50% whatever we small holders may want.

Balance sheet value may have eroded further since last September but the potential value of the ip rights, expertise, validated facilities in the books at the cost of creation (?but their depreciation policy is unclear to me) and going concern/order book factors, not to mention the tax loss position should add up to a realistic value well in excess of the formal balance sheet.

The company is in no position to apply leverage for maximum advantage - that could only arise from a contest or just possibly the Dixons digging in for a fight. Realistically it is more likely the buyer will get a bargain or even that this will prove to be a false dawn.

Could we hope for 20p?
In a contest probably more: without one that is probably too optimistic.

[jdb2005] 07/4/2009 16:43

Any idea where this approach has come from ??

Is it a competitor or is it one of their larger customers who think it would be a good idea to bring them in-house ??

[the_doctor] 07/4/2009 16:37

"I will not accept inaccurate statements without trying to correct you where necessary"

Be my guest.
Do you mean inaccurate statements like 'how can they go bust when they have a full order book'!? Cough.

[the_doctor] 07/4/2009 16:36

As for 'negative comments', not really, just realistic.

I near enough copied them out of the prelim. results!
Cobra's words, not mine.

[jdb2005] 07/4/2009 16:32

Steady on phoney - we know you are inclined to get a bee in your bonnet as per MDX and PRM bb's.

You are entitled to your opinion but I will not accept inaccurate statements without trying to correct you where necessary.

[the_doctor] 07/4/2009 16:29

Er no

I WANT success
But do I think it is that likely, NO

Two different things. I'm not here to ramp or deramp... or advertise if that's what you call it.

[imabastard] 07/4/2009 16:28

Doc .... would have believed your statement .... until you wrote "I want success for the company".

Whether you feel it's an objective view or not, to be the main provider of repeated negative slants on the merits of the stock heavily contradicts the statement. Never take up a role in advertising. ;o)

[jdb2005] 07/4/2009 16:28

Phoney you are a prize ....

Your comment "I'm not saying they cant succeed, but anyone trying to make out that they're not on a knife edge is a fool" tells me how little knowledge you have of this company's order book and contracts with several international pharmas.

Incidentally - how are your own investments doing lately ??

[the_doctor] 07/4/2009 16:28

'Their major shareholders participated in a share issue which grossed nearly £1m last quarter'

Yes, highlighting the need for additional cash.

Just read the financial report. It is all clear there.

I'm not saying they cant succeed, but anyone trying to make out that they're not on a knife edge is a fool. Hence my view that any bid might not be at as high a price as some would like.

[jdb2005] 07/4/2009 16:25

Ali - I agree you have to manage your cash flow but if you have milestone payments due you should be able to get funds to tide you over where needed.
My understanding is that they had grants to help with upgrading facilities and that order book is looking better this year compared with last year.
Their major shareholders participated in a share issue which grossed nearly £1m last quarter.