||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|fitton: Cluff trades on the TSX in Canada primarily to raise money from the American market.The share price rarely matches the equivalent price on the LSE. Trading volumes usually range from nothing one day to maybe a few hundred shares traded. Today is by far the exception to the rule,todays volume is huge compared to normal.When the share price does move it can move in a very erratic way,both up and down.Todays movement does seem to be much more investment orientated rather than crazy MM driven movement based on little or no volume.Although I would not take any movement on the TSX too seriously, I do think its a very good sign.|
|amargosa: I think the plan is thus:
Yaoure: drill out 1Moz sulphide resource in 2012; continue drilling 2013 until have 2-3 million oz; restart oxide mining 2012 and continue until CIL plant is built in 2014/15?
Baomahun: start building plant in nov/dec 2012 (in dry season) subject to decent financing terms; if not, slow down the build process until decent financing terms available, using cash flow from BF. Or sell the whole project once DFS and additional exploration drilling establishes worth.
Kalsaka: transition to Sega ore (oxides) in 2013 (higher grade and 90% ownership); 100k oz forecast for 2013; extend oxide life until Baomahun up and running in 2014 via exploration at both Kalsaka and Sega; then build CIL plant to mine sulphides at both locations. Run heap leach facility concurrently?
As regards the share price, I suppose they believe strong upcoming newsflow will boost the share price Of course, that means they do actually have to put out good news from time to time.
Worth a look at Orezone; they have suffered a significant decline in their share price too. It's a sector-wide affliction; where's the turning point?
Edit: IG claiming the H1 results are out on 15 Aug.|
|amargosa: The share price is below the price when the company listed in 2004. Whatever the reasons, that has to be considered a huge failure given what has happened to the POG since then. I cannot imagine the major shareholders being happy with that. There must come a time in such situations when these investors examine the current situation and prospects and decide the best outcome is to split up the assets and sell the lot individually, or at least change strategy to reflect shareholder requirements rather than management's. I think we are certainly at the stage of examining the options - the M Cap doesn't even cover the net worth of the Baomahun project ($172m @ $1100 POG - and they must have spent an additional $20m on it since then -[Jun 2010]). In order to finance Baomahun ($200m), the management probably thought the M Cap would have been much higher by now (say, close to £200m), so that any dilution would have been palatable to shareholders, but it's not, it's around £80m. It's decision time - the uncertainty over Baomahun financing is toxic for the share price.|
|sporazene2: Gold Producers such as CLF that have seen their share price decimated can't just blame the wider market, as there are specific reasons for the share price taking a major hit, as well as CLF consider. HGM, MML, AVM, CEY, MIRL, SHG the list goes on.
In CLF's case our management are one of the worst performing I have seen. They raised $12m at 112p from Macquarie around 2 years ago and have only just released the first batch of results from the exploration that the funds were targeted at. Ironically, the first results are coming from Ivory Coast as opposed to Burkina Faso, where a civil war had all but stopped operations.
Nothing has come from BK from that round of drilling, to the point that we go and acquire Sega, which smacks of desperation, given what we were told about LOM extension at Kalsaka. Not to mention the two lots of dilution that has come since
Additionally they are 12 months late on the delivery of the DFS at Baomahun, from the original timeline, even the latest resource update that was supposed to be delivered in June has not arrived.
So all in all my view of the current management is not good. Add in a good dose of political uncertainty in BK and IC and there you have it, more than enough to mark down together with the poor performance, across almost all facets of the business, regardless of what has happened in the wider market.
If they are struggling to raise finance for Baomahun, the shareholders that shelled out at much higher amounts in previous placings are going to want a hefty discount or to force a sale at 100-120p, IMHO.
Contrast this with PAF who have delivered pretty much everything they have promised and their share price is pretty solid. From my perspective there are too many AIM junior minors that promise too much, overcommit their financial resources and fall way short of what they are trying to achieve through their own inability to manage expectations and risk effectively.|
|inside building: They are in a "Close Period".
One consideration on the seller is maybe some similarities to Azumah Gold:
Market comment and strategy
Several of Azumah's major overseas-based institutional shareholders are experiencing either redemptions by their own shareholders or other challenges. Azumah's management believes this is having a doubly negative impact on its share price in an already difficult market environment. However, there has been consistent buying interest in Azumah stock, which management sees as recognition of its excellent assets and support for its strategy.
Importantly, Azumah holds cash and listed investments totalling $22.5 million making it well positioned to ride out this present market malaise.
If one of the sellers is the TIPS fund they would not need to notify the market as their holding was less than 3% but would be big enough to bring the share price falling down.
|fitton: pineapple1 - Why a placing now. Although the gold price has dropped the company is still generating cash.I tend to agree that there could be some manipulation of the share price.Traditionally the share price does get hammered on very low selling volumes.Maybe some financing has been agreed relating to the DFS.Maybe this does involve a very large placing,but it would need to be in the 50-55p range and involve raising 40-50m to make any difference.This would be the reverse of what the company has stated and rather desparate.Either way something has got to give, take a look at the Allied Gold information,this gives a bit of an idea as to potential takeover price with the price per oz paid etc,etc.Only a rough idea.|
|fitton: As I mentioned earlier, I did ask the question about the share price and option price.As it is in the interests of the smaller shareholders I have posted the reply.I am sure the company will not mind the reply being posted as it gives a clear explanation behind the granting of options and timing etc and puts across the company view.
Thank you for your inquiry.
Mr McGloin joined us as an Executive Director in April 2012, and was appointed Executive Chairman on 28 May 2012. As part of his remuneration package, which was recommended by the Remuneration Committee, it was agreed that he would be granted a certain number of options to ensure that he is properly incentivised as a director, in a similar way and scale to other board directors within our peer group. These options were granted to ensure that Mr McGloin is properly aligned to the interests of shareholders, and this is especially the case given that his total remuneration package is more heavily weighted towards share based payments compared to that of the previous chairman.
Pursuant to the Rules of the Company's Share Scheme, the exercise price for any options issued is determined by the closing price of the day immediately preceding the day on which the options are granted, which is typically held shortly after the director's joining date.
When Mr McGloin joined the Company, the Company was in a close period as we were approaching our 2011 and Q1 2012 results releases, resulting in the delay of his options. Subsequent to those releases, several members of the Board were visiting our operations in West Africa, which further delayed the grant. It was only upon their return that we had a small window before we enter another one-month close period for our upcoming H1 2012 interims results and the Board was in a position to grant Mr McGloin's options.
Along with the rest of our peer group, our share price has been depressed since May, driven primarily by the macro-economic environment, which has affected the broader gold mining sector. Consequently this has affected the exercise price for Mr McGloin's options, with the share price remaining below the 70p level over the past few weeks.
As the options do not vest for 3+ years, we believe we are strongly aligning Mr McGloin's interests with those of long-term shareholders by ensuring that his contribution is rewarded by the Company's share price growth. We have great confidence in Mr McGloin's broad depth of technical skills and knowledge of the financial markets and we believe he will be instrumental in delivering our long term growth strategy to unlock shareholder value.
We will continue to focus on growing our operations and exploration work, and we look forward to a recovery in the share price as general market sentiment improves. We appreciate your loyal following to date and hope that you will maintain your support for Cluff Gold and share in our long term vision for the Company, despite a challenging economic environment today.|
|fitton: Drilling results indicate that yaoure could be a large resource.Financing the projects is obviously causing concern in the market.The question is how long before a bid comes in for the company.The share price must be under severe presure not to respond to todays news with a few pence increase at least.Value has been added to the company but not to the market cap.I would guess if the share price recovers to closer to £1 in the next 6-8 weeks with good news flow then the company my have a fighting chance of avoiding a takeover.If the share price is still in the 60-70p ish range then it will be the end, I hope!|
|amargosa: Fitton, I was just thinking about the same issue, but as Spivey said recently, the low share price will affect how the money is raised for SL; in fact for shareholders there will be less and possibly no dilution if the share price does not rise substantially from these levels. Baomahun is a stand-alone project and once the FS is out, there will be, as Spivey stated, many options to finance it, or sell it on.
The other issue with the share price where it is relates to a take out. The lower the share price the more vulnerable we are to a take-over offer sooner rather than later, and, as your post indicates, the shareholders may be more susceptible to a lower offer than would have been the case following this fall in the share price. There has not been a massive volume of trading over the last few days and weeks and there has been plenty of buying; if I were a cynical sort of person, I might even think that a potential suitor is beating up the share price for a low-ball offer, but I'm not that cynical. This is a very difficult period for shareholders I agree.
PS In the meantime, the POG has held up well and we are still producing from Kalsaka, the drilling programme is fully funded and there is the potential to bring back Angovia soon (perhaps Peter should consider reviewing his no-risk policy, it's in IC for goodness sake).|
|hectorp: CLF share price is already up 20% on a tip the other day. I'd not be rushing in now...
but for holders, I'd hope this bid gets itself lost! It's a distraction.|
Cluff Gold share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange