Cloudcall Share Discussion Threads

[goldilocks1] 18/3/2015 13:08

FOXT
got out at my target price of 185 having got too greedy yesterday

[goldilocks1] 18/3/2015 13:07

fear of interest rate rise as early as june

[mike740] 18/3/2015 12:41

Dow futures - 66.

Not looking good.

[goldilocks1] 17/3/2015 16:50

DOW
all over the place but if you've the time to sit still and concentrate, there's money to be made

for instance, DOW dropped just below 50 dma (17883)and then, after a bit of dithering, bounced back - currently 17840 .... and yes, i shall boast and admit i made a quick turn bailing out at 17832


FTSE
encashed this one too for a good profit as i do not want to have an open position as the budget is announced - too unpredictable

[mike740] 17/3/2015 10:21

Right Ive found out why some cant see the thread in the thread list for epic.....talk...... its because they havent got there politics box ticked on the opening page of threads.

Its at the top of the page a line of small boxes, best to tick them all. Its under the bigger Header MY PROFILE.

[goldilocks1] 17/3/2015 08:57

FTSE
i'll post a chart when i get to the office, but 6868 on way north is likley to be a barrier as that is where 25 dma is met
i'm already long (6779) so showing a good profit, so may cash in anyway before the above hurdle

[goldilocks1] 16/3/2015 15:35

indeed it does .... in fact, it's now very difficult to get vessel space east/west

[the other jimmy] 16/3/2015 15:29

I suppose a cheap Eur is good for exports ,maybe why the DAX has kept going up .

[goldilocks1] 16/3/2015 15:02

FTSE
aha! it's crept through 6800 for the first time since it all clunked about a week ago
if it holds, then a quick surge ahead of the budget must be on the cards

[shortiefrommam] 16/3/2015 14:51

The DAX is eating me right now! I'm still holding for now..

[goldilocks1] 16/3/2015 14:13

DOW
off on a rocket this morning ..... i wonder if there's to be an assault on 18,000 any time very soon

===============

just cashed in a VERY tasty profit at 17926 as it could now take a breather
shall keep an eye with a view to buying back in again later

[goldilocks1] 15/3/2015 13:58

don't look to me for DAX for i've never traded it in my life

[mike740] 15/3/2015 12:13

Interesting support line developed on the S@P.............

[mike740] 15/3/2015 12:12

Who knows Jimmy, wheres Shortie and Goldie they are the experts on the DAX.

[the other jimmy] 13/3/2015 16:12

DAX making another new high ?

[goldilocks1] 12/3/2015 16:24

thanks skinny .... at least that gives the epic (DOWI:DJI)
anyway, have banked a tasty profit for the moment, but may dabble again later

[skinny] 12/3/2015 16:04

That should be a live one in post 88 - they are having some technical problems atm.

There is a static one in post 86.

[goldilocks1] 12/3/2015 16:02

i can't find a chart for the DOW here
does anyone have any idea under what epic it is hiding?

[goldilocks1] 12/3/2015 14:40

DOW
having been on the wrong side for a few days, i am now very chirpy, but i cannot find any info as to why the market (dow) has suddenly jumped to 17,800+
any ideas anyone?

17,800 is just above 50 dma, so if it holds, next resistance looks to be 18,000 or thereabouts, which coincides with 25 dma

[mike740] 12/3/2015 14:09

A tactical way to play divergence
Stability has returned to most Asian developed markets, although the S&P 500 is looking the most vulnerable among the major markets.

Chris Weston g+, Melbourne
Thursday 12 March 2015 03:54

underperformance of the S&P 500 is building by the day, especially against Eurostoxx 50, China CSI 300 and also the ASX 200. In the equity space, the trade continues to be favouring markets where the underlying central bank is undergoing radical balance sheet expansion, or cutting interest rates. The natural beneficiaries of this stimulus are the sectors that have sizeable weightings on the markets (such as the ASX 200).

The USD has been talked about more in the last 48 hours than I have seen for years, which seems to be having a more pronounced effect on the US markets. It begs the question where would the S&P 500 be if corporates hadn’t taken full advantage of the low interest environment to undertake a massive capital management program? Yesterday this issue was epitomised with Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Fifth Third and American Express adding to the raft of firms that have already undertaken such initiatives.

Pairs trades – a great way to play diverging markets

Still, liquidity trumps capital management it seems, and long Eurostoxx 50/short S&P 500 as a pairs trade is an idea I have liked for some time, and continues to work in earnest. The outperformance has been huge, with the ratio (i.e. Eurostoxx 50/S&P 500) increasing from 1.48x in January to 1.78x at the close of play. Put the trade into AUDs and the outperformance isn’t as pronounced, with the ratio gaining 7% in the same period. The big risk to the trade is that the Federal Reserve may hold off from removing its ‘patient’; language in next week’s meeting in a bid to halt the USD’s assent, which should see the US markets do nicely. This seems unlikely though given commentary from US central bankers of late, suggesting we are not at breaking point just yet.

Looking at the ASX 200/S&P 500 ratio, this has increased some 13.4% since December (if the trade was carried out unhedged), but put both markets in AUD terms and the performance is a little lower at 5.5%. Either way, the ASX 200 is outperforming, and being long the Australian cash index or SPI futures and short the S&P 500 or E-mini futures index (making sure you net off the AUD exposure at best fit), it looks like it will still work despite many feeling that the boat has sailed.

The price action in the ASX 200 has been positive and has seen a strong move after the first hour. There has been a strong ‘buy the dips’ mentality from local investors and there would have been very few traders who would have seen the local market rallying 1% pre-market. It seems investors both domestic and internationally are accumulating financial and discretionary stocks on any weakness, and it’s hard to see this trade reverse in the short-term at least. We have seen traders try and short both sectors, but they are fighting real underlying strength and short positions are best left to the materials and energy spaces where traders are still debating how much further the commodities can fall.

Today’s Australian employment data was a modest net positive, although traders have not really acted on the numbers; after a slight pop in AUD/USD to $0.7629 sellers have come in again. Importantly the employment to population ratio remains unchanged at 60.6%. Interbank pricing has reacted very modestly to the drop in the unemployment rate and is now pricing a 37% chance of a cut in April and a 91% chance of May. Stay short AUD/USD for $0.7450.

China A50 cash index looks like a buy

The 1.5% rally in the Chinese equity market hasn’t provided the AUD with any real impetus to push prices higher and local news flow has been that we should see a further Reserve Ratio Requirement cut some time shortly. The best way to trade further easing in China is directly through Chinese markets these days and the AUD or Aussie mining stocks are a poor proxy and have seen little uplift from the recent benchmark rate cuts, liquidity injections or RRR cuts. Long positions on the A50 index (the top 50 mainland companies with the futures traded on the Singapore exchange) look compelling given the recent trend break, with stops below 9950.

Otherwise Asia has seen traders do what they do best, which is bid up the USD and sell EURs. Watch for a break in the US dollar index through the 100 level, which will be the highest level since 2003. But it has to be said that the move lower in EUR/USD is becoming quite ridiculous and the rate of change (i.e. utilising RSIs) has only seen conditions like this once before and that was post-Lehman brothers in 2008. There is an absolute buyers strike going on in EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP and it takes a brave soul to counter-trend this move. Short GBP/USD is still working nicely and I continue to feel a move to the March and July double bottom at $1.4850 could be on the cards.

[skinny] 12/3/2015 14:06

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[mike740] 12/3/2015 08:56

Looks like the 60day SMA is providing support for the FTSE.